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LCHorn

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Everything posted by LCHorn

  1. We’re not giving him $350k. If that’s the math a sure thing like Ja’Tavion is going to be super expensive to keep past the May transfer window.
  2. I’ve posted this upthread because I’ve done loans for several folks in the radio business over the last 10-15 years and have some insight into wages. I don’t think the problem is the content model; they know far, far more about their audience than a layman might presume. It’s just that their audience is approaching social security age (the number quoted to me was that the average listener in Austin for over the air radio is 58), NPR captures something like 80% of the listening audience, and no one really wants to pay for advertising to this demographic group. The real question to me is whether there’s a market for an ad supported rival to NPR. Obviously it’s not drooling slack-jaws like Todd and Don.
  3. It’s not bourbon but I love introducing people to Balcones Rumble just because it’s such an unusual flavor profile. I’ve had people both love and hate it; both results I appreciate more than another bourbon with a very similar flavor complexion to 20 other bourbons on the market.
  4. My wife works for Google-sounds like mid-management had zero input on who was terminated and it wasn’t just the under-performers. The stock is up 5%, though, which is probably an indication of the audience for the cuts.
  5. I’m hoping that the various banking PAC’s start giving them an earful. So much of the pricing is counter-intuitive to how we’ve always understood risk to be managed.
  6. $800 for cost? I just got an appraisal back today on a central Austin custom new construction (with expensive finishes, pool, etc.) and it was $700 a sq ft-comps were in the $690-$890 or so range. I’m guessing construction costs wouldn’t be more than half that.
  7. I mentioned it upthread but will highlight it again-the TAMU data is what the former chief economist for the Austin CoC will cite if you hear him speak.* Bear in mind there’s a big seasonality component involved, too. *fwiw, also what I use when I give presentations to agents.
  8. To be fair, you’d have to sell it if you want to know the exact depreciation. I had appointments all day but was going to add earlier (in reference to your “what’s a better measure than median?” question) that I think there’s sample size distortions (which @Wulaw Horn mentioned already) and flaws in the data. If you talk to agents, A LOT of the Austin purchase market in the last six months have been dominated by cash purchases. I don’t know that you’ve quoted your data source but I don’t know how any of them would pick those up.
  9. I think what @jimmyjazzis getting is is “what is my house worth today.” List prices vs final sale price on an individual house aren’t particularly illustrative. I was looking at the data to rebut Jimmy’s 20% drop figure yesterday and only got halfway there. I do think that overstates things but he’s right, last spring it appears values were frothier than even I was aware. Fwiw, I think TAMU’s housing index is a better source for analysis than Abor or wherever you (Jimmy) are pulling it. Year over year appreciation based on 3rd quarter 2022 data is about 9%, which is still higher than the five year average of 2014-2019 before Covid disrupted things.
  10. I guess-their pricing has sucked since early 2021 for me, anyway. Maybe they were trying to tell us something… Just to be clear, are you referring to transactions? I think @Wulaw Hornwas referring to year over year value depreciation (but correct me if I’m wrong). If we lost 20% on the value side realtors would be jumping off the downtown condos balconies.
  11. Aggie has a weird fixation with purity tests for fandom that you apparently share. There’s enough institutional barriers for all kinds of things-why create one around sports? (plus it’s particularly incongruent for a UT fan to say-we profit from the broad, non-graduate fandom more than most).
  12. Yeah, but is it still dumb? The first season was incomprehensibly dumb and I couldn’t sustain the fantasy that real humans would make the decisions demanded by the plot without some intellectual disadvantage. Just terrible writing.
  13. Can you elaborate on how providing a tax break to this firm actually increases AISD revenue and is shielded from recapture?
  14. Unfortunately that wasn’t the case under McLane. I was an avid Baseball Prospectus reader since it’s inception in 95 or thereabouts when it was clear there was strategic advantages available that ran counter to conventional baseball wisdom. Pretty much all the easy shit had been adopted broadly in MLB by 2005 or when the down slide started for the ‘Stros (I may be off a few years but I was in Iraq then so my fandom was on pause). The Astros basically sucked because Drayton ignored the developmental process and absolutely refused to allow the team to operate like the Pirates or Rays and trade for expiring free agents to generate 1st round picks. He also wouldn’t spend on Venezuelans once they lost first to market advantages there but still had the highest profile training academy. It was maddening and the only reason the beat writers proffered was that he didn’t want to piss off Selig. It’s so much harder now because you basically HAVE to tank with the caps on draft pick and amateur free agent bonuses. For a time, baseball was the one sport where a brilliant David could beat a dumb Goliath year after year but no more.
  15. It’s been a while but every time we’ve shifted banks or regional offices and I’m dealing with a compliance team somewhat new to Texas loans we have to make clear that the owner’s title policy isn’t an IPC when paid by the seller. This is also a good reason to have a relationship with some at Black, Mann and Graham or Robertson-Anschutz so you can pull in a legal opinion.
  16. It was a great trade but also an acknowledgment, perhaps, that the industry perception our minor league system at the time was over-rating the prospect quality. Perez has one good year in the minors and Cameron’s claim to fame was pedigree plus peaking at 15-16.
  17. Jamal Adams measured 214 at the combine, I don’t see what the issue is with 210.
  18. Agreed. I wanted him back but not at 1/5 of our total payroll.
  19. I don’t know if it’s a consensus or I’m just remembering multiple @Wulaw Hornposts, but I think ya’ll are underrating Garcia and overrating Brown. I kind of think Garcia’s 2022 is a very hopeful outcome for Brown and those of ya’ll expecting him to be the next Verlander are really putting a lot pressure for him to prove guys like Keith Law, Jim Callis, and the fangraphs people wrong.
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