The very best thing that can be said about Russia's current status is that it is not losing strategically significant territory and it may make marginal gains from time to time. But overall the front could properly be characterized as "static."
And from an American standpoint, that's fine. I know a lot of people are emotionally invested in Ukraine and fervently hope that the Ukrainians will be able to expel the invaders from the whole of its territory. But speaking purely of America's interests here and being completely dispassionate, the current status quo benefits us more than an unequivocal Ukrainian victory would.
Right now, while Russia is bogged down in Ukraine, it is unable to threaten any of our Nato allies. Even the Baltic countries, which the Pentagon has always worried could not be readily defended in the event of an invasion, now face no realistic threat from Russia.
An end to the war would mean that Russia would have a chance to rebuild and replenish its military. But for now, it has to increase its budget just to keep up with the stocks it is losing on a daily basis to the Ukrainians. Russia is militarily weaker than it was in January 2022, and that decline is continuing.
And the decline isn't just military. It's economic and diplomatic. The sanctions haven't had the crushing effect for which one might have hoped. But they've had an effect all the same. The Russian economy is stagnant; inflation is high. That's right, friends--it's the Fed's great fear: stagflation. And there's not a damned thing the central bank can do about it. Russia certainly can't sell weapons on the international market; nobody wants their garbage.
At the same time, Russia's military ineffectiveness means its diplomatic stature is decreasing. Everywhere from Kazakhstan to Armenia, its former satellites are exerting their independence. And maybe once upon a time, someone might have given a fuck about Russia's position on Gaza or Venezuela; now, nobody does.
All of Russia's losses have worked to the benefit of the United States. Russia's losses in the international arms market are being picked up by American manufacturers. Russia's diminishing diplomatic stature has been filled by an increased American role in the Caucasus and Central Asia. American O&G producers are making up for the loss of Russian hydrocarbons on the international market. America's allies are finally realizing that they need to contribute to allied defense.
And all this is being accomplished at virtually no cost. The United States spends money that . . . goes to American defense contractors. We get a jobs program; Russia gets dead people.
Why would we want this to stop?
And I think the answer from the position of the United States Government is, "we don't."
So, yeah, @Ken Griffey Jr--Russia is doing just great. As an American, I kind of hope Russia keeps doing this great indefinitely.