To get home solar, or not?

[Superhero 8699]

A Tesla (SolarCity) consultant came by yesterday to give me an estimate for a 9-panel system. The cost would be $11,600, with $3,500 (~30%) paid up front, and $80/mo for the next 10 years.

Right now, our electricity bill is about $55/mo for 8 months, and $125/mo during the summer. It averages out to ~$80/mo, but may go up with new billing methodology, and ~ 3%/year rate hikes.

My rough calculation comes out to ~13 years for the system to pay off. By then, we should have enough credit with the utility company that electricity after 13 years would be essentially be "free" until the system needs replacement in 25 years.

 

Are my calculations somewhat on point? Is it worth getting solar with my relatively low electrical utility costs? FWIW, I live in CA where the weather is mild most of the year, and it's sunny 80% of the year.

[jimmyjazz 45428]

You're pretty close.  That long payoff is the reason I've never pulled the trigger.  You're basically doubling your utility bill for 10 years.  The point is . . . ????

EDIT:  to be fair you should look into tax rebates, etc.  I usually see the net payoff in the 7 year range.

Edited April 23, 2018 by jimmyjazz

[Gil Bang 25843]

I don't recommend it at your current usage.  

PITA at resale time.

 

[Superhero 8699]

3 hours ago, Gil Bang said:

I don't recommend it at your current usage.  

PITA at resale time.

That's if I sell within 10 years right?

Or is it because I won't recoup the cost of equipment?

[Bat Guano 359]

Yeah, expand on that, Gil. Why is it a PITA? I've got a system that's 11 years old, has already paid for itself and all of its production now is gravy, for me. I'm counting on it adding at least a few thousand in added value to my house if I decide to sell; should I not be?

[wherzwaldo 1]

Maybe he means it will be a PITA if the system isn't paid off by then, but I don't see how that would be any different/worse than selling a house with a second lien (e.g. home equity loan) on it.

We installed a 13.76kW system (43 panels) on our house last June.  Our payoff period was pretty similar to yours, but I think ours was a conservative estimate.  We switched to Green Mountain Energy which has the best net metering plan, and we haven't paid a penny in electricity since July.  Of course, we're paying on the loan for the system which is a little higher than our previous average electric bill (ranged from $125-200), but we're in it for the long haul so that's okay.

I'd recommend going through your last 3-4 years of usage and figuring out what your average daily kWh usage is.  That data can be used to size your system appropriately, and then you can track your solar production and see where you stand.  In my case we need 46-52kWh/day to break even.  As of yesterday my running average is right at 50kWh with the sunniest few months of the year still ahead, and the running daily average never dipped below 49kWh even with the colder weather we had this past winter.

If you have any other questions feel free to ask.

Edited April 24, 2018 by wherzwaldo

[Gil Bang 25843]

Yeah, sorry for being so brief.

Super, I've got a pretty good idea where you live, and I'd bet you lunch at Meizhou Dongpo that you've got a tile roof on your house.  You really don't want a lot of people walking  around on a tile roof.  And the mounting systems for tile roofs are generally problematic.

As to the resale; if the system is 100% free and clear, it's not an issue, but that's rarely the case in my experience (I work primarily in the N. San Diego market, but OP is just 50 miles or so up the road).  

We see 3 different types of solar contracts out here.

1) "Power Purchase Agreement": a company comes out and installs solar on your house at no upfront cost, and you agree to purchase the power that the panels generate. The contract specifies the cost per kilowatt hour, as well as the annual escalator.  I've seen some contracts that run 20-25 years, and some that are as long as 30 years. The contracts are often bought and sold several times, many times one or more of the companies involved go out of business, are purchased by a competitor, whatever.  Should you decide to sell, the company that holds the contract must approve the new owner, otherwise the original owner is on the hook.  And, getting that approval is often a huge pain in the ass.  I've seen 30 day escrows  delayed because we couldn't get the approval in a timely manner.  Also, should you ever need a roof replacement, you have to pay the company to come remove and reinstall the panels.  And, with the contracts being bought and sold, warranty service is often horrible.

2) A "leased" system.  You agree to pay $ X per month for a system that will generate Y kilowatts.  Same problems as above with warranty and assumptions of the contract.

3) an outright cash purchase.  Few and far between, but as far as I can tell, the only disadvantage is with warranty, as described above. 

 

[Gil Bang 25843]

6 hours ago, Bat Guano said:

Yeah, expand on that, Gil. Why is it a PITA? I've got a system that's 11 years old, has already paid for itself and all of its production now is gravy, for me. I'm counting on it adding at least a few thousand in added value to my house if I decide to sell; should I not be?

Probably won't add much value.  The panels lose efficiency each year as they age, and at 11 years old, your inverter is probably ready to take a shit.   If I were the buyer, I'd be happy to have the system in place, but in my experience, not all buyers feel that way.  

[Brewin’1up 34]

15 hours ago, wherzwaldo said:

Maybe he means it will be a PITA if the system isn't paid off by then, but I don't see how that would be any different/worse than selling a house with a second lien (e.g. home equity loan) on it.

We installed a 13.76kW system (43 panels) on our house last June.  Our payoff period was pretty similar to yours, but I think ours was a conservative estimate.  We switched to Green Mountain Energy which has the best net metering plan, and we haven't paid a penny in electricity since July.  Of course, we're paying on the loan for the system which is a little higher than our previous average electric bill (ranged from $125-200), but we're in it for the long haul so that's okay.

I'd recommend going through your last 3-4 years of usage and figuring out what your average daily kWh usage is.  That data can be used to size your system appropriately, and then you can track your solar production and see where you stand.  In my case we need 46-52kWh/day to break even.  As of yesterday my running average is right at 50kWh with the sunniest few months of the year still ahead, and the running daily average never dipped below 49kWh even with the colder weather we had this past winter.

If you have any other questions feel free to ask.

We had a guy come out for an estimate last month. He figured a 45 panel system on our house, and gave his pitch about how awesome his company and product is. After we listened to him and watched the videos, he said he couldn't give us any numbers unless we agreed to sign a document that we were "ready to purchase". I told him straight up that we weren't buying today, or signing anything. His finally conceded, and his quote was for $45k. Then the loan for the system was going to cost almost double what our current electric bill is,  and would only provide 70-80% of our needs. When I told him we were definitely going to get some other estimates from other companies, to compare and we'd go with the one that made the most sense, he says "Well let me know, and we can definitely beat their price". Pass.

Edited April 25, 2018 by Brewin’1up

[Longhorn94 2425]

we have a metal roof. if a hail storm ever damages it, we will look at getting the entire roof replaced with the Tesla solar tiles and a couple of power walls.

[Bat Guano 359]

14 hours ago, Gil Bang said:

Probably won't add much value.  The panels lose efficiency each year as they age, and at 11 years old, your inverter is probably ready to take a shit.   If I were the buyer, I'd be happy to have the system in place, but in my experience, not all buyers feel that way.  

Ha. Joke's on you. Inverter already took a shit, and I had to replace it about 6 months ago. Wait, what?

 

So... I may still be in the black, or maybe not; that was a couple thousand in unexpected expense, and I haven't crunched the numbers. I still get warm fuzzy feels from figuring out by how many tons of carbon I'm reducing my footprint, though.

[wherzwaldo 1]

2 hours ago, Longhorn94 said:

we have a metal roof. if a hail storm ever damages it, we will look at getting the entire roof replaced with the Tesla solar tiles and a couple of power walls.

The Tesla stuff is what got me seriously interested in solar in the first place.  The lifetime warranty on the tiles is nice, but it has several drawbacks:

- You can't get tiles on 100% of your roof.  I think the max is 75-80%.
- The tiles cost quite a bit more than traditional solar panels.  Tesla said my estimated 30-year cost savings was about $6k, vs. $18k with the traditional solar system I ended up with.
- The Powerwall battery only has a 10-year warranty and costs $7k each.  When your battery craps out it wipes out your 30-year savings and then some.

[wherzwaldo 1]

3 hours ago, Brewin’1up said:

We had a guy come out for an estimate last month. He figured a 45 panel system on our house, and gave his pitch about how awesome his company and product is. After we listened to him and watched the videos, he said he couldn't give us any numbers unless we agreed to sign a document that we were "ready to purchase". I told him straight up that we weren't buying today, or signing anything. His finally conceded, and his quote was for $45k. Then the loan for the system was going to cost almost double what our current electric bill is,  and would only provide 70-80% of our needs. When I told him we were definitely going to get some other estimates from other companies, to compare and we'd go with the one that made the most sense, he says "Well let me know, and we can definitely beat their price". Pass.

Sounds like a shitty experience.  Our system was $48k ($28k after rebate and tax credit, which keeps the loan payment manageable) and provides a 100% offset.

[Bernard 879]

Solar prices keep dropping, which seems like a great excuse to wait until some future time to install solar. 

Where are the highest electricity prices in the world? Seems like there should be an opportunity for someone in a low cost area to buy panels for someone’s roof in a high cost area then bill them for the power at some cost below their market rate. 

Bernard

[jimmyjazz 45428]

Last I checked, PG&E (West Coast) was some 2.5X the cost of power in Austin.  I almost didn't believe it.

[AeroHorn 735]

Wow, you guys use a lot of power. I installed a 4.25kW system (13 panels) last June. Over 11 months (6/17 to 4/18) it has produced 6.3MWh, or average of 570 kWh/month (SF Bay Area). It cost $17k (SolarCity) - 30% tax credit - $500 Tesla credit = $11.4k, which is about 10 years of electric bills. I have a credit of 570kWh right now, and May being a big producer, I'll end with a credit of about 0.9MWh, for which I'll get practically nothing (PG&E wholesale rate). I need to switch on my AC a bit more in summer to not give PG&E free power.

Edited April 30, 2018 by AeroHorn

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

On 4/25/2018 at 9:10 AM, Longhorn94 said:

we have a metal roof. if a hail storm ever damages it, we will look at getting the entire roof replaced with the Tesla solar tiles and a couple of power walls.

No you won't once you see what a Tesla solar tile roof really costs.

Edited May 25, 2018 by Onboard 2.0

[Longhorn94 2425]

3 hours ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

No you won't once you see what a Tessa solar tile roof really costs.

I have a quote

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

4 minutes ago, Longhorn94 said:

I have a quote

Share please, cause while I think the system is pretty cool I believe it's probably 2-3 x what a slate roof costs (slate= about $1,200 per sq. around here). And is that for a Tesla or Tessa roof ??

Edited May 25, 2018 by Onboard 2.0

[blacklab 11838]

I got a 4.4Kw system on my roof.  It was $14k from solar city, minus a $3.5k tax rebate this year for a little over $10k.

The loan payment is $50, and I save between $50-$70 a month on electric depending how sunny it is. From October - April my electric bill is typically less than $20. 

The way the COA does it is a little goofy, they pay you $.097 per kWh you produce

These are my charges from 4/23 to 5/22

COA - Electric Residential Customer Charge . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $10.00 
Tier 1 first 500 kWh at $0.037 per kWh . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $18.50
Tier 2 next 500 kWh at $0.056 per kWh . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $28.00
Tier 3 next 31 kWh at $0.07868 per kWh . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $2.44
Regulatory Charges 1,031 kWh at $0.01362 per kWh . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $14.04
Community Benefit Charges . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .$3.81
Power Supply Adjustment 1,031 kWh at $0.02936 per kWh, Winter . . . . . . . $30.27
Solar Credit 545 PV kWh at $-0.097 per kWh . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .-$52.87
Residential Sales Tax Taxable Amount . . .  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  . . . . . . . . . . . $54.19
TOTAL CURRENT CHARGES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ............ . . . . . . . . . . . . $54.19

 

 

[RowdyVic 106]

Stay away from gogreentx!

[GotThatFire 166]

I bought a house with solar. I don't pay for electricity. The city pays me about $13 a month for the unused 

[BoomMF 1398]

Just went with a 15kW system (50 panels) so thread hits close to home (literally?).  I can't imagine this would be anything but a boon to resale.

[Gil Bang 25843]

18 hours ago, BoomMF said:

Just went with a 15kW system (50 panels) so thread hits close to home (literally?).  I can't imagine this would be anything but a boon to resale.

did you buy the system outright?  If so, it almost certainly is good for resale. If you leased it, not so much. 

[Catpfish 618]

In terms of resale, a leased system adds zero to the appraisal per FHA guidelines.  There is a real problem in Austin with appraisers adding much value (if any) for owned systems.  I'm sure that will change as more homes have solar, but right now it can be a point of contention in the sale/appraisal process.

[Hollywood 324]

Bump

Thinking about doing this... I had Freedom Solar come give their pitch and pricing earlier this week.

Annual spend on energy: $2100
Cost of 28 panel system (after rebate:tax) $23k
Moved in our house in July and put on a new roof at the time.



Thoughts? Seems like a no brainer. Have it paid off in 10 years and then gravy going forward.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

How independent/trustworthy are their claims of savings ?

[hrmaddie 48]

Something to consider is that solar panels degrade over time. So the power they provide now won’t be the same in 10 years.  What degradation you’ll experience is hard to say.  

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

2 minutes ago, hrmaddie said:

Something to consider is that solar panels degrade over time. So the power they provide now won’t be the same in 10 years.  What degradation you’ll experience is hard to say.  

And there will be the inevitable roof leak(s) to have to deal with.

[Sbbruin 21690]

On 4/23/2018 at 5:38 PM, Superhero said:

That's if I sell within 10 years right?

Or is it because I won't recoup the cost of equipment?

Your usage numbers are really low.  I don’t think it would be worth it.

[Gil Bang 25843]

7 hours ago, Sbbruin said:

Your usage numbers are really low.  I don’t think it would be worth it.

Agree