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The US and Korea


RomaVicta

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Why?  Pretty much everyone that didn’t give credit to trump for NK, myself included and still don’t, said they would start to believe NK was serious if this happened.  We’ve seen this show from NK where they seem to be willing to work and they fuck it up.

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Hugo has gone from it’ll never happen and trump is being played by NK to “this is what China wants”. I’d say he’s in panic mode that something good is actually happening as a precursor to actual negotiations. 

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2 minutes ago, Jhawk said:

Hugo has gone from it’ll never happen and trump is being played by NK to “this is what China wants”. I’d say he’s in panic mode that something good is actually happening as a precursor to actual negotiations. 

Do you really think NK is going to hand over their just completed nukes?  Of course Trump is being played.  We will give them something for nothing. It won't be so bad though. The end result is that NK will be a stable and accepted country.  An end to the bluster is enough for now. 

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4 minutes ago, FondrenRoad said:

Do you really think NK is going to hand over their just completed nukes?  Of course Trump is being played.  We will give them something for nothing. It won't be so bad though. The end result is that NK will be a stable and accepted country.  An end to the bluster is enough for now. 

This is what I’m thinking is the long game for NK.  They’re going to keep the nukes they currently have and just not make any more (that we will know about).  Their end game is reducing the sanctions thrown at them so they can try and be a semi-normal country.  

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Just now, David Dennison said:

If he did, we'd know about it. 

Not necessarily.   We didn't know about the secret Pompeo meeting for awhile. We still don't know what they discussed.   Perhaps letting it seem like a gesture is part of the deal. 

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8 minutes ago, Mojo Hand said:

Not necessarily.   We didn't know about the secret Pompeo meeting for awhile. We still don't know what they discussed.   Perhaps letting it seem like a gesture is part of the deal. 

The assumption everyone is making is that NK leadership views it's currently situation as a sustainable and that they don't want to change or they are willing to die to continue this nonsense.  It's widely believed that Kim was educated in Switzerland from 1993-1998 so he was most likely educated instead of indoctrinated.  He's probably not stupid, brainwashed or crazy.  I wouldn't be surprised at all if he's looking for an exit because he knows there is a better world outside the hermit kingdom.

I think he gave the prisoners in exchange for getting the opportunity to negotiate directly with the US in good faith.  There is way more to gain from being a friend than being our enemy.  Kim might be thinking it's better to be on easy street.

the-walking-dead-season-8-negan.jpg&f=1

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The prisoner release is great news. I assume that is all of our prisoners they are holding illegitimately? Nobody should spin that. So far, we've gotten something in exchange for nothing but Trump's promises (being as unreliable as they are, and I guess we don't even know that he made any).

As for them ultimately giving up their nukes? I mostly doubt it. BUT there is the possibility that NK considered that an acceptable outcome. There's always a range on goals, from most desirable (acceptance as a nuclear power and removal of all sanctions) to minimum acceptance (something like complete dismantling of nuclear program and destruction of all weapons in exchange for removal of sanctions and a seat at the table moving forward).

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25 minutes ago, Amobie said:

The assumption everyone is making is that NK leadership views it's currently situation as a sustainable and that they don't want to change or they are willing to die to continue this nonsense.  It's widely believed that Kim was educated in Switzerland from 1993-1998 so he was most likely educated instead of indoctrinated.  He's probably not stupid, brainwashed or crazy.  I wouldn't be surprised at all if he's looking for an exit because he knows there is a better world outside the hermit kingdom.

I think he gave the prisoners in exchange for getting the opportunity to negotiate directly with the US in good faith.  There is way more to gain from being a friend than being our enemy.  Kim might be thinking it's better to be on easy street.

the-walking-dead-season-8-negan.jpg&f=1

You get welcomed into the community of nations, you get to keep your nukes, we'll reward you with trade, and we'll leave the peninsula. Thanks for releasing the prisoners, two of whom you took under my watch, most likely for the purpose of using them as trade bait.

#winning

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1 minute ago, David Dennison said:

You get welcomed into the community of nations, you get to keep your nukes, we'll reward you with trade, and we'll leave the peninsula. Thanks for releasing the prisoners, two of whom you took under my watch, most likely for the purpose of using them as trade bait.

#winning

And step down from your seat of power and take a position similar to the Queen of England (no power) instead of your family ending up like the rest of the European monarchs.

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1 minute ago, Falling Down said:

He created the opportunity you fucking dolt.

Uh, no, he didn't.    Unless you mean by letting NK complete its nuclear development by doing nothing in response to the last dozen tests but tweet.   In which case he certainly played his part. 

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1 hour ago, FondrenRoad said:

Do you really think NK is going to hand over their just completed nukes?  Of course Trump is being played.  We will give them something for nothing. It won't be so bad though. The end result is that NK will be a stable and accepted country.  An end to the bluster is enough for now. 

How has he been played thus far?  You can't make the claim that he is being played if there is no benefit to NK at this point.  He could walk away from all talks tomorrow and we come out with less hostages in NK and their programs all stay status quo.  We came out ahead.  Trump is getting stuff for nothing right now.  It is incredible that people are ignoring that at this point.  Fuck man... A US diplomat walked into NK TWICE over the last 3 month and wasn't detained and has been treated as a diplomat.  

1 hour ago, David Dennison said:

I think it's great news. I just don't credit Donald Trump with it. I think the North Koreans want something and they know this will help them get it.

 

No shit sherlock... of course rocket man wants something and here's a newsflash.... To get something in a negotiation you ALWAYS have to give something up.  You are under the assumption that Kim wants to rule SK, keep his nukes, be on the UN security council, be the VP of the USA, and have a front row seat to all games in the big baller league.  Maybe you should be thinking that Kim might see an end to the empire his father and grandfather enjoyed and he is more interested in living than dying.  Maybe his end game is to be able to roam more than just NK and china.  Maybe he wants to smoke weed in the Netherlands or bang hookers in uganda.

I think it is probably time for you to think that the results we are seeing out of this negotiation is FAR different than what we have seen out of negotiations in the past.  Over the course of 3+ presidents no one has gotten an inch out of NK.  President Trump did.  That either signifies that Trump is a far better negotiator and diplomat than the last 3 administrations or that NK has had a change in strategy and endgame.  You choose.

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4 minutes ago, Mojo Hand said:

Uh, no, he didn't.    Unless you mean by letting NK complete its nuclear development by doing nothing in response to the last dozen tests but tweet.   In which case he certainly played his part. 

Clinton is the president who sold the technology that wound up in the Nork's hands.

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North Korea denuked seems like a done deal. All that's left is the pomp, optics and the peace process and our military presence details.  Iran's gonna be a lot more difficult with the slimy logan-act defying american establishment and euro-trash on the creep, and barrels of cash and uranium unaccounted-for, israel syria and russia...

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Just now, Caracara said:

North Korea denuked seems like a done deal. All that's left is the pomp, optics and the peace process and our military presence details.  Iran's gonna be a lot more difficult with the slimy logan-act defying american establishment and euro-trash on the creep, and barrels of cash and uranium unaccounted-for, israel syria and russia...

Positive signs abound, but let's not start sucking our own dicks yet. I remain cautiously optimistic.

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31 minutes ago, Mojo Hand said:

What does that have to do with anything I posted? 

How can you say Trump let them get nukes when the technology to get nukes was sold to them through china which was handed to them from Bill Clinton?  Then Bush had a chance to slow them or stop them.. Nothing.  Then Obama had the same chances... Nothing.  Yeah... 30+ years of policy has led to this point.  Not the last 2 years.  They didn't go from ZERO to FULLY NUCLEAR in 2 years.  That is the most obtuse statement ever.

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2 minutes ago, Jhawk said:

How can you say Trump let them get nukes when the technology to get nukes was sold to them through china which was handed to them from Bill Clinton?  Then Bush had a chance to slow them or stop them.. Nothing.  Then Obama had the same chances... Nothing.  Yeah... 30+ years of policy has led to this point.  Not the last 2 years.  They didn't go from ZERO to FULLY NUCLEAR in 2 years.  That is the most obtuse statement ever.

But I didn't say "Trump let them get nukes."   I said that he let them complete their nuclear development by doing nothing in response to their final dozen tests, which established their capacity to nuke the mainland US.   And that in that sense, he played his part.  All of that is true, and consistent with the reality that many other presidents played their parts in bringing us to where we are today. 

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11 minutes ago, Caracara said:

North Korea denuked seems like a done deal. All that's left is the pomp, optics and the peace process and our military presence details.  Iran's gonna be a lot more difficult with the slimy logan-act defying american establishment and euro-trash on the creep, and barrels of cash and uranium unaccounted-for, israel syria and russia...

Why would anyone believe this?

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11 minutes ago, Mojo Hand said:

But I didn't say "Trump let them get nukes."   I said that he let them complete their nuclear development by doing nothing in response to their final dozen tests, which established their capacity to nuke the mainland US.   And that in that sense, he played his part.  All of that is true, and consistent with the reality that many other presidents played their parts in bringing us to where we are today. 

You're joking right????  We sanctioned the shit out of them to the point they had to let their soldiers wander the woods for rats to eat.  The biggest thing we have done from a foreign policy standpoint is make our sanctions have teeth, since Trump has been in office.  Nikki Haley is at the UN telling people that they won't get aide if they vote against our interests.  The reason NK is even at the table at this point is because their country is on the verge of collapse because they literally can't feed themselves.  They are at the table, and apparently willing to talk about giving up their nukes (conversations haven't even started to our knowledge) in exchange for more favorable treatment on the world stage.  Basically, "talk about letting us have food in our stomachs and we'll talk about nukes."  It isn't "we have nukes now give us food."

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20 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Positive signs abound, but let's not start sucking our own dicks yet. I remain cautiously optimistic.

You're right of course.  even our eternally incompetent POTUS said "we'll see"

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1 minute ago, Jhawk said:

You're joking right????  We sanctioned the shit out of them to the point they had to let their soldiers wander the woods for rats to eat.  The biggest thing we have done from a foreign policy standpoint is make our sanctions have teeth, since Trump has been in office.  Nikki Haley is at the UN telling people that they won't get aide if they vote against our interests.  The reason NK is even at the table at this point is because their country is on the verge of collapse because they literally can't feed themselves.  They are at the table, and apparently willing to talk about giving up their nukes (conversations haven't even started to our knowledge) in exchange for more favorable treatment on the world stage.  Basically, "talk about letting us have food in our stomachs and we'll talk about nukes."  It isn't "we have nukes now give us food."

So now Trump controls the rain in North Korea?   We've sanctioned the shit out of them for years.  North Korea has gone through many periods of starvation.   Trump hasn't done anything new on that front that hasn't already been done. 

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52 minutes ago, Jhawk said:

 

How has he been played thus far?  You can't make the claim that he is being played if there is no benefit to NK at this point.  He could walk away from all talks tomorrow and we come out with less hostages in NK and their programs all stay status quo.  We came out ahead.  Trump is getting stuff for nothing right now.  It is incredible that people are ignoring that at this point.  Fuck man... A US diplomat walked into NK TWICE over the last 3 month and wasn't detained and has been treated as a diplomat.  

No shit sherlock... of course rocket man wants something and here's a newsflash.... To get something in a negotiation you ALWAYS have to give something up.  You are under the assumption that Kim wants to rule SK, keep his nukes, be on the UN security council, be the VP of the USA, and have a front row seat to all games in the big baller league.  Maybe you should be thinking that Kim might see an end to the empire his father and grandfather enjoyed and he is more interested in living than dying.  Maybe his end game is to be able to roam more than just NK and china.  Maybe he wants to smoke weed in the Netherlands or bang hookers in uganda.

I think it is probably time for you to think that the results we are seeing out of this negotiation is FAR different than what we have seen out of negotiations in the past.  Over the course of 3+ presidents no one has gotten an inch out of NK.  President Trump did.  That either signifies that Trump is a far better negotiator and diplomat than the last 3 administrations or that NK has had a change in strategy and endgame.  You choose.

Trump isn't getting something for nothing. He's legitimizing the NK regime.  NK is moving out of "rogue nation" status.  KJU is now being seen as a reformer rather than a dictator who has kids sent to work camps for life because their grandpa was a political opponent.  To be fair, it isn't just Trump though.  SK has been legitimizing the regime as well.  At the end of this KJU will be free to drive his lamborghini to Harrod's in London like he's a Saudi prince.  Meanwhile his people will still be living in a shitty dictatorship.

You weren't born yesterday.  Bill Clinton went to NK in 2009 and had 2 dumbass hostage reporters released.  Was that "something for nothing?"  Since then 9 other dumbass Americans have been detained and released at various intervals.  1 dumbass American died immediately upon release.  And now 3 dumbass Americans have been released.  And suddenly these 3 are now "hostages" rather than Americans who entered NK and were detained for breaking their laws.  Their laws suck ass, and their punishments are even worse, but it isn't like these 3 Americans didn't know about them before going there.  An actual "hostage" is a diplomat who is abducted or a Japanese citizen who was abducted in Japan and taken to NK.

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Anybody besides me think the NK royal family will eventually be deposed or made strictly ornamental, and NK will go in a new direction closer to SK?

 

Amobie, I'm with you.

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42 minutes ago, FondrenRoad said:

Trump isn't getting something for nothing. He's legitimizing the NK regime.  NK is moving out of "rogue nation" status.  KJU is now being seen as a reformer rather than a dictator who has kids sent to work camps for life because their grandpa was a political opponent.  To be fair, it isn't just Trump though.  SK has been legitimizing the regime as well.  At the end of this KJU will be free to drive his lamborghini to Harrod's in London like he's a Saudi prince.  Meanwhile his people will still be living in a shitty dictatorship.

You weren't born yesterday.  Bill Clinton went to NK in 2009 and had 2 dumbass hostage reporters released.  Was that "something for nothing?"  Since then 9 other dumbass Americans have been detained and released at various intervals.  1 dumbass American died immediately upon release.  And now 3 dumbass Americans have been released.  And suddenly these 3 are now "hostages" rather than Americans who entered NK and were detained for breaking their laws.  Their laws suck ass, and their punishments are even worse, but it isn't like these 3 Americans didn't know about them before going there.  An actual "hostage" is a diplomat who is abducted or a Japanese citizen who was abducted in Japan and taken to NK.

Hate to break it to you but if he does have nukes then he is a legitimate nation.  They can stay a hermit nation with nukes, but that makes our friends in the region antsy.  So what do we do?  What would you recommend?  Just not talking to them?  No action?  Why didn't we try that with Iran when they were doing their nuke program?  It seems to me that there is a lot of favor to negotiate nuke deals when it isn't the trump admin but when it is the trump admin talking to anyone is a bad thing.  Why is this a bad thing?  Seems to me that Trump is just carrying on the wildly successful Obama foreign policy standard.

 

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Talking is not a bad thing.  It's the right that has conveniently flip-flopped on that, not Trump's opponents.  What is a bad thing is sending a mentally imbalanced moron to do the talking for us.   I hope it works out, but that doesn't mean it will.   Or that Trump has already achieved something signficant before the talking even happens, which is what you and others are claiming.   "We'll see what happens", "I think it will work out, " or "I think he'll blow it" are the only reasonable takes right now.   "Hand him the Nobel, he's done it!" is not. 

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20 minutes ago, Mojo Hand said:

Talking is not a bad thing.  It's the right that has conveniently flip-flopped on that, not Trump's opponents.  What is a bad thing is sending a mentally imbalanced moron to do the talking for us.   I hope it works out, but that doesn't mean it will.   Or that Trump has already achieved something signficant before the talking even happens, which is what you and others are claiming.   "We'll see what happens", "I think it will work out, " or "I think he'll blow it" are the only reasonable takes right now.   "Hand him the Nobel, he's done it!" is not. 

I would say that both parties have flipped on that.  As I just showed, dems loved it when obama was talking about talking to our enemies.  Repubs decried it.  Now repubs love it and dems hate it.  Don't start with the "he did it first."  That is exactly what our politicians do.  Hold them, and yourself accountable.

It is very important to note that we've got shit moving in a generally good direction.  Anyone who denies that is blind.  And the fact of the matter is that we are in a better position today than we were yesterday with NK.  It has been that way since march.  It appears that right now Kim is giving us concessions just for the chance to talk about how to be a world player.  That is good.  Does that mean a deal is done or we are going to get everything we want?  Fuck no.  Are we going to have to give something up?  Most likely.  But if someone thinks that the US giving even an inch is a total failure then they are wasting everyone's time with that argument.  They will never see a successful NK policy because their only perception of success is we get everything, give nothing, end up with complete control over china.  That is what the majority of posters here think at this time.  Not "things are going well" or "this looks like it could potentially have a 2% chance of going well."  It is "trump has been/is being played," "china is getting everything they want from trump," "You get welcomed into the community of nations, you get to keep your nukes, we'll reward you with trade, and we'll leave the peninsula."

Doesn't seem to me that people want to see it play out.  Seems to me that people are hoping we fail in this venture like our beloved presidents before.

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2 minutes ago, Jhawk said:

Doesn't seem to me that people want to see it play out.  Seems to me that people are hoping we fail in this venture like our beloved presidents before.

as if folks hate potus more than they love themselves

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18 minutes ago, Jhawk said:

I would say that both parties have flipped on that.  As I just showed, dems loved it when obama was talking about talking to our enemies.  Repubs decried it.  Now repubs love it and dems hate it.  Don't start with the "he did it first."  That is exactly what our politicians do.  Hold them, and yourself accountable.

It is very important to note that we've got shit moving in a generally good direction.  Anyone who denies that is blind.  And the fact of the matter is that we are in a better position today than we were yesterday with NK.  It has been that way since march.  It appears that right now Kim is giving us concessions just for the chance to talk about how to be a world player.  That is good.  Does that mean a deal is done or we are going to get everything we want?  Fuck no.  Are we going to have to give something up?  Most likely.  But if someone thinks that the US giving even an inch is a total failure then they are wasting everyone's time with that argument.  They will never see a successful NK policy because their only perception of success is we get everything, give nothing, end up with complete control over china.  That is what the majority of posters here think at this time.  Not "things are going well" or "this looks like it could potentially have a 2% chance of going well."  It is "trump has been/is being played," "china is getting everything they want from trump," "You get welcomed into the community of nations, you get to keep your nukes, we'll reward you with trade, and we'll leave the peninsula."

Doesn't seem to me that people want to see it play out.  Seems to me that people are hoping we fail in this venture like our beloved presidents before.

Which Dems have come out against the idea of a direct meeting between the president and Kim?  Who on the left has been saying "we should not talk to our enemies"?

The rest of your post describes the GOP response to the Iran deal almost exactly.   It doesn't describe the reaction to a potential NK deal at all.  Everyone knows that you have to compromise.   But there are certain things that are non-starters for a successful deal.  Above all, NK has to renounce nukes and promise to dismantle its nuclear program, and there has to be verification by international inspectors to ensure that they are following through.   And we cannot give up our own nuclear defense (but we can perhaps give in on withdrawing them from the peninsula).  The Iran deal had those things.  If the NK has those things, we can compromise on other things.   But arguing that a deal would be a failure without those things does not amount to refusing to give an inch in negotiations.  

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4 minutes ago, Mojo Hand said:

Which Dems have come out against the idea of a direct meeting between the president and Kim?  Who on the left has been saying "we should not talk to our enemies"?

The rest of your post describes the GOP response to the Iran deal almost exactly.   It doesn't describe the reaction to a potential NK deal at all.  Everyone knows that you have to compromise.   But there are certain things that are non-starters for a successful deal.  Above all, NK has to renounce nukes and promise to dismantle its nuclear program, and there has to be verification by international inspectors to ensure that they are following through.   And we cannot give up our own nuclear defense (but we can perhaps give in on withdrawing them from the peninsula).  The Iran deal had those things.  If the NK has those things, we can compromise on other things.   But arguing that a deal would be a failure without those things does not amount to refusing to give an inch in negotiations.  

Hugo & dennison for 2.

Who is arguing that any deal would have them keeping nukes?  The only person who has said that is Dennison.  Everyone since March that is working on the deal (China, SK, USA) has stipulated that nukes are the central part of the deal.  I never once said the deal would be a success even if we don't get nukes from them. 

Let's say that NK does, in fact, denounce nukes and says they will demilitarize in that capacity.  What then?  Hugo going to step up and say that the negotiation was successful?  He is already saying that getting our citizens back was trump getting played (even though nothing has been given up yet).  Dennison going to eat crow?  What about the others who thought no wrong could be done with the Iran deal?  They going to step up and say the NK deal is a good one?

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Just now, Lagunamadre said:

I can't wait to see what NK's "ask" is. $10B and a 50% troop reduction in SK? 

I think trump would counter-offer and insist that counties nearby kick-in, and as a bonus, offer Kim a chance to not be assassinated.

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2 minutes ago, Lagunamadre said:

I can't wait to see what NK's "ask" is. $10B and a 50% troop reduction in SK? 

This is either all going to end because of completely ridiculous circumstances (like yours) or it is going to be a great success.  There really isn't much in between.  I think they are either going to do what they have always done or maybe Kim has realized that he is on the edge of having an unruly and hungry military and he needs to negotiate his safe exit from leadership.  The second is the only reason I can see him coming to the table if a deal is actually to be reached.  If he wants cash and demilitarization then I would guess that talks would stop because that doesn't build much goodwill.

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It is pretty alarming how many people are rooting for an outcome that is a net negative for the US simply because they don't like the President.  We don't have any details let alone the acknowledgement of an agreement yet some people have already decided that it's a bad deal...  For something that hasn't even happened yet.

 

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4 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

Given that the Trump team has no nuclear experts involved, would anyone be surprised if they just copied the JCPOA inspections framework in a proposal to North Korea? That would be hilarious. 

Please inform us of everyone on the team since you have that information.  I'm guessing you knew about the meeting in march as well as this most recent trip by pompeo to pick up the US citizens.  Please.. elaborate on the roster trump has put together.... oh wait... you can't.

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4 minutes ago, Jhawk said:

Hugo & dennison for 2.

Who is arguing that any deal would have them keeping nukes?  The only person who has said that is Dennison.  Everyone since March that is working on the deal (China, SK, USA) has stipulated that nukes are the central part of the deal.  I never once said the deal would be a success even if we don't get nukes from them. 

Let's say that NK does, in fact, denounce nukes and says they will demilitarize in that capacity.  What then?  Hugo going to step up and say that the negotiation was successful?  He is already saying that getting our citizens back was trump getting played (even though nothing has been given up yet).  Dennison going to eat crow?  What about the others who thought no wrong could be done with the Iran deal?  They going to step up and say the NK deal is a good one?

Two random anonymous guys on a message board are "the Dems" equating to "both parties have flipped"?  Worst #bothsides ever.   Obama took shit from actual leaders of the GOP for saying it is OK for a president to meet with enemy leaders.   Only one party has flipped on that. 

As for who is arguing that they won't agree to give up nukes — uh, pretty much everyone who thinks this will fail?   That's the entire point of the discussion we have been having.   The biggest concern is that Trump will accept some superficial concessions while letting them avoid the kind of commitments and verifications we had in the Iran deal.

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8 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

Given that the Trump team has no nuclear experts involved, would anyone be surprised if they just copied the JCPOA inspections framework in a proposal to North Korea? That would be hilarious. 

If Melania was on the negotiation team, this would be the odds on favorite. 

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