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2018-19 Texas Longhorns thread


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2 hours ago, UT Lawnghorn said:

Let's say for sake of argument we get Roach back.  That's still no Jones at all, no Bamba, no EDJ or Young (who weren't great but what do we replace them with)?  Our team from last year was a 10 seed. How does losing our two best players from last year, even with Jones only playing part of hte season, and returning the rest make us a lock? You're relying on a ton of development and progression from the returning guys, which is possible but definitely not a lock by any means. Not to mention that Bamba was an absolute defensive force. Sims won't be able to replicate that and he gets in foul trouble. We have no rim protector after that. This team will likely take a big step back on defense.

Your talk about the recruiting class is dumb for the reasons Derka pointed out.  There do not appear to be any instant impact guys, so the rank of the recruiting class has very little to do with how the team will perform next year (although I like the class long-term with 4 guys who will likely see their junior year).

All of this. Our prospects of being better than we were last year, to anyone with a functioning brain, look like slim to none, and we barely made the tourney last year. Connecting dots and shit.

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“Jericho Sims absolutely kicked ass last year.” Groan. He went for 5 points and 4 boards and was abused in man defense. He had three or four really nice games and 25+ completely nothing games. You unabashedly abuse hyperbole son.

Edited by Goo Punch
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8 minutes ago, Goo Punch said:

“Jericho Sims absolutely kicked ass last year.” Groan. He went for 5 points and 4 boards and was abused in man defense. He had three or four really nice games and 25+ completely nothing games. You unabashedly a use hyperbole son.

He averaged 10 points and 7.6 rebounds a game in the 5 game stretch that Bamba was out or just coming back.  That is a bigger indicator than his season totals.

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4 minutes ago, Goo Punch said:

“Jericho Sims absolutely kicked ass last year.” Groan. He went for 5 points and 4 boards and was abused in man defense. He had three or four really nice games and 25+ completely nothing games. You unabashedly a use hyperbole son.

Now you're just downplaying the success of our players for your agenda. Sims did not start last year and given his minutes, his stats are solid. Pomeroy's per-possession stats give him an Effective FG% of 60.7 which is really good and 2nd best on the team behind only Andrew Jones, and his per possession played defensive rebounding was 17.4 which is also really solid. Not to mention if you watched him play you would see that he looked like a player who any NCAA team would be more than happy to have.

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1 minute ago, txhorns said:

He averaged 10 points and 7.6 rebounds a game in the 5 game stretch that Bamba was out or just coming back.  That is a bigger indicator than his season totals.

Once again, 5 good games does not constitute “absolutely kicking ass”. TJ Ford, Kevin Durant, and DJ Augustin absolutely kicked ass as freshmen. AJ Abrams, Booby Gibson, and Damion James were really good as freshmen. Jericho Sims has five good games and 25+ games of nothing. He did not “absolutely kick ass as a freshman”, that’s just a fact. If you want to say that he has nice upside and point to those five games then do so, but don’t go around acting like he dominated when in reality he was invisible 90% of the time.

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24 minutes ago, Cameltoe said:

Again I'm not relying on any development and progression other than what you would expect from any NCAA player from one year to the next. We did not lose our best player from last year, Coleman is in fact returning. We finished the year essentially without Mo Bamba who was injured for last several games of the season or playing ineffectively with recent injury problems. We made the dance anyway. Sims absolutely kicked ass for a freshman last year, and Osetkowski put in essential and important work in getting us to the dance as our most utilized player. Add to that a recruiting class that is up there with the top 10 programs in the country and you have a dance projected team. I only said a "lock" if Roach returns. Otherwise a probable tournament team. Why is this so hard for you to grasp?

Lulz. I'm not the one with trouble "grasping" concepts.  I understand what you're saying. It's just all insane. 

 

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1 minute ago, Goo Punch said:

Once again, 5 good games does not constitute “absolutely kicking ass”. TJ Ford, Kevin Durant, and DJ Augustin absolutely kicked ass as freshmen. AJ Abrams, Booby Gibson, and Damion James were really good as freshmen. Jericho Sims has five good games and 25+ games of nothing. He did not “absolutely kick ass as a freshman”, that’s just a fact. If you want to say that he has nice upside and point to those five games then do so, but don’t go around acting like he dominated when in reality he was invisible 90% of the time.

Oh I'm certainly not saying that he kicked ass last year, that was Cameltoe.   All I am saying is the 5 games at the end of the year in which he started without being hindered by a top 5 pick are more relevant to his future success.  He clearly has a ton of potential.  I think he will have a great year this next year and will average around a double double.  I also think he will get abused by some of the better coaches/teams we play, expecially on defense.

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10 minutes ago, UT Lawnghorn said:

Lulz. I'm not the one with trouble "grasping" concepts.  I understand what you're saying. It's just all insane. 

 

Oh really, and what part of it is insane? I'm dying to know.

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40 minutes ago, Cameltoe said:

Oh really, and what part of it is insance? I'm dying to know.

1. Coleman was not our best player last year

2. Sims didn't kick ass. He contributed off the bench in a limited role.

3. Your'e still relying on those guys progressing a ton.

4. You can't say "we made the dance" without Bamba (or even really Jones). We made the dance over a whole season's worth of work, to which Bamba contributed massively.  Our defense was not the same without him. 

5. Our recruiting class isn't up there with the top 10 programs.  It's 14th in avg recruit score ( a much better metric than total score due to fluctuation in bball class sizes).  There's a big gap between our score and the top 8-10 classes. Plus, we're one of only 2 teams in the top 14 without a 5 star, you know the kind of guy who comes in right away and has a big impact since we're talking about how they'll help next year's squad.  All our recruits are long-term guys. Maybe one of them surprises and has a big impact, but expecting them to be big contributors in year one is unrealistic.

6. My entire hypo above was if Roach came back, so when I used your term, "lock," it was assuming Roach is back just like you said. Seems like you were unable to grasp this point.

7. All this goes to show that calling next year's team a "lock" for the dance, even with Roach, is ridiculous. They might make it, but it will require good injury luck (we have way less depth than 2017) and a lot of progression by the returning players.  Our team last year was much, much more talented and deeper than our team next year and they barely made the dance. To say, we're a lock to make it next year and you're not relying on any huge jumps from our returning players is absolutely insane.

 

I've sufficiently made my point and I know how these things go with you, so I'm gonna leave it at that. 

Edited by UT Lawnghorn
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Our prospects of being better than we were last year, to anyone with a functioning brain, look like slim to none, and we barely made the tourney last year. 

I'm of the opinion that we will be better next year - possibly even significantly better.  But even if we don't improve and actually got WORSE next year, it is still highly likely that we will have a much BETTER overall record due to the Big 12 being so much weaker. Kansas and K-State will both be great.  Outside of that, the Big-12 will be much worse.

  • We lost 2 games to Tech by a combined six points.  They lose 6 of their top 8 scorers including an All-American and will be down bigtime.
  • We lost 2 games to Baylor by a combined 10 points.  They lose their top 4 scorers. 
  • West Virginia, TCU, and Kansas all lose their top 2 scorers, OSU loses their top-3 scorers, Oklahoma loses an NBA lottery pick

Now compare that to Texas.  If Roach comes back, we will return 3 of our top 4 scorers.  Coleman, Sims, and Febres should improve as Sophomores.  We add Long who should contribute immediately.  There is an outside shot at Jones contributing as well.  Then add in a potential top-5 recruiting class and we look better in my opinion.  Time will tell I suppose.

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23 minutes ago, HookEm said:

I'm of the opinion that we will be better next year - possibly even significantly better.  But even if we don't improve and actually got WORSE next year, it is still highly likely that we will have a much BETTER overall record due to the Big 12 being so much weaker. Kansas and K-State will both be great.  Outside of that, the Big-12 will be much worse.

  • We lost 2 games to Tech by a combined six points.  They lose 6 of their top 8 scorers including an All-American and will be down bigtime.
  • We lost 2 games to Baylor by a combined 10 points.  They lose their top 4 scorers. 
  • West Virginia, TCU, and Kansas all lose their top 2 scorers, OSU loses their top-3 scorers, Oklahoma loses an NBA lottery pick

Now compare that to Texas.  If Roach comes back, we will return 3 of our top 4 scorers.  Coleman, Sims, and Febres should improve as Sophomores.  We add Long who should contribute immediately.  There is an outside shot at Jones contributing as well.  Then add in a potential top-5 recruiting class and we look better in my opinion.  Time will tell I suppose.

I see what you're saying, but I also feel like we say this every year and then a bunch of those teams bring in JUCOs and transfers and end up being really good. 

Also, small quibble on the recruiting stuff because there seems to be so much bad info floating around on that, we have no chance at a top 5 class. We're full on spots and we're in 8th. If anything, we may get passed by some teams who aren't full yet.

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We will be significantly worse on defense next season.  That seems like a given to me.  So where will we get (for sake of a number) 10 more points per game?   Jones seems like a no go.  Roach and DO is what they is.  With them plus the freshmen and Sims I expect  no increased scoring from the 2, 4 and 5.  Maybe 4 more from the point between Coleman and Long,  Maybe 3 more from the 3 with Febres having a year under his belt.  Add it all up and I don’t see much improvement at all.  So yeah the rest of the league is going to need to get worse or we are looking at another sub 500 league record.  Hot take, I know.  

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Supposition: Smart wants to coach in the NBA.  He models his coaching after Billy Donovan and uses the read and react offense, while spending most of his time emphasizing defense.  

Who was good at playing the read and react offense on Texas in the last 3 years?  There was a lot of reacting, but not much reading.  Senior PG Taylor qualifies.  Senior PG Felix.

Who can do it next year?  Coleman, Long, Ramey.  Coleman because he will be better than he was last year.  Long because he is experienced.  Ramey because he thinks he can and has bb IQ. 

Who has shown more reacting than reading?  Osetkowski and Roach.  Roach showed an ability to create for himself. Osetkowski needs to defer except on mismatches.

Who knows?  Liddell and Hepa. 

What are the strengths/weaknesses of the freshman?  Who among them will be contributors next year?  

 

The 17-18 team were in a lot of ball games last year where they either pissed away the lead or got beat in the last five minutes.  Will that improve with a better, stronger and more rested Coleman?  When it's 2 minutes left and the team needs to score, who does the play go through? Is it Coleman or Ramey or is it Osetkowski or Roach (if he comes back)?

 

 

 

 

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Fwiw I’m expecting/counting on Coleman to have the ball in crunch time where he can both shoot or pass off the dribble a la Chris Paul. I believe that Coleman’s pull-up game will be a relative strength next year, enough to make it a threat on the dribble drive.

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1 hour ago, BigOrange1 said:

to start with, the part about osetkowski being essential or important.

You do realize he was honorable mention all big 12 this year, right, dumbfuck? https://texassports.com/news/2018/3/4/four-longhorns-honored-on-phillips-66-all-big-12-mens-basketball-awards.aspx

Kinda puts a crimp in your whole "DO sucks" campaign, doesn't it?

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4 hours ago, UT Lawnghorn said:

1. Coleman was not our best player last year

2. Sims didn't kick ass. He contributed off the bench in a limited role.

3. Your'e still relying on those guys progressing a ton.

4. You can't say "we made the dance" without Bamba (or even really Jones). We made the dance over a whole season's worth of work, to which Bamba contributed massively.  Our defense was not the same without him. 

5. Our recruiting class isn't up there with the top 10 programs.  It's 14th in avg recruit score ( a much better metric than total score due to fluctuation in bball class sizes).  There's a big gap between our score and the top 8-10 classes. Plus, we're one of only 2 teams in the top 14 without a 5 star, you know the kind of guy who comes in right away and has a big impact since we're talking about how they'll help next year's squad.  All our recruits are long-term guys. Maybe one of them surprises and has a big impact, but expecting them to be big contributors in year one is unrealistic.

6. My entire hypo above was if Roach came back, so when I used your term, "lock," it was assuming Roach is back just like you said. Seems like you were unable to grasp this point.

7. All this goes to show that calling next year's team a "lock" for the dance, even with Roach, is ridiculous. They might make it, but it will require good injury luck (we have way less depth than 2017) and a lot of progression by the returning players.  Our team last year was much, much more talented and deeper than our team next year and they barely made the dance. To say, we're a lock to make it next year and you're not relying on any huge jumps from our returning players is absolutely insane.

 

I've sufficiently made my point and I know how these things go with you, so I'm gonna leave it at that. 

This is so stupid I don't even know where to begin. First off, for someone who just started posting on the basketball forum, you sure do have a lot of stupid shit to say.

1. Arguing Coleman was our best player this year isn't even close to "insane." Take Coleman off the team and we're just fucked. We lose more games without him than sans any other player. Sure you can make an argument Bamba was our "best" player, but no one impacted the games more than Coleman as our lead ball handler. He was the most valuable, and therefore the best.

2. Sims kicked ass. Without a doubt he kicked ass given he was freshman. Even without that caveat he played well, efficiently, and promisingly. There is no takeaway as a fan about Sims other than "cool, it's really good we have this guy."

3. I am not relying on any progression beyond the normal strides a player makes from year to year.

4. I never said anything of the sort that we would've made the dance if Bamba had been out all year. What I did say is that in a must-win scenario to end the season versus teams like West Virginia, in order to make the dance, we did. Without Bamba. This is because of guys like DO and Sims and Coleman who are returning, unlike Bamba.

5. Our recruiting class is fucking awesome this year. What is your angle trying denegrate the recruiting class? That's just stupid. We are basically bringing in the best players from Texas high school basketball, and some even out-of-state. Texas is a hotbed for high school basketball talent and we are bringing in the cream of the crop. What's bad about that? Nothing.

6. Yeah you made this hypo about Roach coming back but then you kept slamming this point of "losing our 2 best players". Since we got Coleman back I have no idea wtf you're talking about, and I have even less clue if you're considering Roach one of our 2 best players? Your shit's all retarded and you talk like a fag.

7. As has been mentioned our conference record is going to improve just because the Big12 is going to be weaker. This helps make the dance. We're going to have pieces to build around in Coleman, DO, Sims, and Febres. Then we bring some of the absolute top talent from around the country in our recruiting class. It is not in the least bit insane to project the 2018-2019 Longhorns to the dance, and all the preseason media outlets will back me up on that. YOU are the fucking stupid one here without understanding of how college basketball works and with no ability to evaluate talent.

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We will be significantly worse on defense next season.

I'm not certain about that.  We may be a little worse down low, but we may make up for it on the perimeter.

If Roach comes back, he has All-Big 12 Defense potential. Coleman's defense was already good and should improve with another year.  Losing Eric Davis and Jacob Young might be a net positive on the defensive end as Febres has more length and is a better all-around defender.  Then we add Elijah Long who averaged more steals at St. Mary's than any player we have had since Kabongo in 2013.

In the post we will definitely miss Bamba as a rim protector, but there were times last season when bigger posts would go at him.  Sims showed good ability to guard multiple positions and will be a defensive anchor for us next year if he can learn discipline.  Osetkowski is a mixed bag and gives us some size (too much size late in the year).  Hamm has the potential to help on defense as well.

Regarding the freshmen, Hepa should add some toughness that has been missing.  Liddell has the length to be disruptive at small forward. Brock Cunningham can bring energy on the defensive end if he gets playing time.   

Bottom line, with college hoops good defense is critical at the guard positions and we should be very solid.  (Assumes Roach returns).  If Roach leaves then yes we will be worse.

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I just think that losing Bamba changes things drastically, and there’s simply no way to make up for it. DO is soft as Charmin, and I don’t see any way that Sims stays out of foul trouble next year (not to mention the huge drop off from Bamba to Sims). Hepa plays more like a perimeter player, so combining that with his youth and lack of big time comp he is essentially guaranteed to struggle down low, while Hayes is simply a huge athlete who is still learning to play the game. Teams who choose to pound the ball inside against us could have a field day next year.

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Shaka's defenses have been ranked 14, 40, &12 (kenpom rankings) in his 3 years here. While it's reasonable to foresee some fall off on the defensive end next year, I have trouble predicting the fall off will be substantial. As has been the case under Shaka, our success (or lack there of) next year will be determined by what we do on the offensive end of the court. 

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Shaka's defenses have been ranked 14, 40, &12 (kenpom rankings) in his 3 years here. While it's reasonable to foresee some fall off on the defensive end next year, I have trouble predicting the fall off will be substantial. As has been the case under Shaka, our success (or lack there of) next year will be determined by what we do on the offensive end of the court. 


Yep. This is the right answer. We can probably all just hold off posting anything else until the season starts.
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1 hour ago, Catdaddyhorn said:

Shaka's defenses have been ranked 14, 40, &12 (kenpom rankings) in his 3 years here. While it's reasonable to foresee some fall off on the defensive end next year, I have trouble predicting the fall off will be substantial. As has been the case under Shaka, our success (or lack there of) next year will be determined by what we do on the offensive end of the court. 

Shaka has had Cam Ridley, Prince Ibeh, Jarrett Allen, and Mo Bamba protecting his rim. He has nobody close to any of these guys on this year’s team. Plenty here seem to expect Sims to simply step into that role, but that’s expecting too much of a kid who still has a lot to learn. Shaka has been blessed with big men; but not this year. 

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7 hours ago, Goo Punch said:

Again, those three years featured elite rim protection- something we won’t have this year. 

They recruited Jaxon Hayes for this very purpose. That's pretty much the scouting report on Hayes, "Game -changing rim protector." Hayes is raw as hell but if all you care about is "rim protection", I'm pretty sure Hayes is perfectly capable of giving Texas that in year 1. 

https://www.wcpo.com/news/insider/moellers-jaxson-hayes-has-been-an-astonishing-rim-protector-for-the-crusaders

https://basketballrecruiting.rivals.com/news/rivals150-thoughts-on-the-final-ranking-for-the-class-of-2018

“Heading to Texas to play in the Big 12, I can’t help but worry that Jaxson Hayes ends up being a bit under-ranked. I don’t think it will be in his first year and it may not even be in his second year, but long term there are few in the class of 2018 who have as much upside as Hayes, even though he's ranked at No. 108 overall. A 6-foot-10 big man at Cincinnati (Ohio) Moeller, Hayes only averaged around 12 points per game and just under nine rebounds as a senior. He also lacks strength. But, he’s a potential game-changer as a shot-blocker, is an above-average athlete and is just starting to learn what he’s capable of. I’m real interested to see what a few years in a college weight room and more experience could mean for his game.”

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Yeah, we all know the scouting report on Hayes, he’s been talked about here ad nauseam. If you think he’s going to step in and have the impact of a Ridley, Ibeh, Bamba, or even Jarrett Allen, you’re going to be sorely disappointed. Having the potential to be an elite rim protector and stepping in and actually doing it from day one are two different things. The kid wasn’t even starting on his Cincinnati area Varsity team as a junior because he’s so raw. How many minutes do you think he’s even going to play? And you think he’ll do so at the level we’re accustomed to? No. That’s that Pollyanna view that too many around here have. That “everyone we return will markedly improve and every freshman we sign will step in and be ready to play right away” view. It’s not how things actually work. Jericho Sims >>> Jaxson Hayes coming out of HS, and he was so far from an elite defender it’s not funny. The kids need time.

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FTR Hayes averaged 12 points and 6.9 rebounds as a senior against Catholic School competition. He’s not Anthony Davis- he isn’t going to come in and start tearing shit up. He’s still got a long way to go before he reaches that potential that has everyone drooling all over themselves. I’m excited about him too, but he’s not going to replace Mo Bamba.

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57 minutes ago, texasstrong12 said:

They recruited Jaxon Hayes for this very purpose. That's pretty much the scouting report on Hayes, "Game -changing rim protector." Hayes is raw as hell but if all you care about is "rim protection", I'm pretty sure Hayes is perfectly capable of giving Texas that in year 1. 

https://www.wcpo.com/news/insider/moellers-jaxson-hayes-has-been-an-astonishing-rim-protector-for-the-crusaders

https://basketballrecruiting.rivals.com/news/rivals150-thoughts-on-the-final-ranking-for-the-class-of-2018

“Heading to Texas to play in the Big 12, I can’t help but worry that Jaxson Hayes ends up being a bit under-ranked. I don’t think it will be in his first year and it may not even be in his second year, but long term there are few in the class of 2018 who have as much upside as Hayes, even though he's ranked at No. 108 overall. A 6-foot-10 big man at Cincinnati (Ohio) Moeller, Hayes only averaged around 12 points per game and just under nine rebounds as a senior. He also lacks strength. But, he’s a potential game-changer as a shot-blocker, is an above-average athlete and is just starting to learn what he’s capable of. I’m real interested to see what a few years in a college weight room and more experience could mean for his game.”

Hayes is really freaking raw. He profiles to being a rim protector, but he’s not going to be one in just first year, especially because he’ll be a detriment on offense. He may get the kind of minutes Sims got this year, but he’s not going to be the anchor of the defense.

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22 hours ago, HookEm said:

Bottom line, with college hoops good defense is critical at the guard positions and we should be very solid.  (Assumes Roach returns).  If Roach leaves then yes we will be worse.

This is the correct answer. Also true in the NBA in today's game.  

Shot blockers obviously matter but having an elite defense in today's game is much more dependent on having wings/guards that can play defense. 

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21 hours ago, Goo Punch said:

Teams who choose to pound the ball inside against us could have a field day next year.

I don't think you watch college basketball. Here's the leading scorers from last year. 7/40 and 16/80 of the leading scorers in college basketball last year were "bigs". Most of those bigs were what you classify as "stretch bigs" that play on the perimeter. 

College teams don't "pound the ball inside". The game is almost entirely perimeter focused now in college basketball. Teams go with how far their guards take them. 

 http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/statistics/player/_/stat/scoring-per-game/year/2018/seasontype/2/group/50

Also a good a read on the small-ball trend. 

https://www.theringer.com/march-madness/2018/3/29/17173106/final-four-perimeter-spread-offense

 

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8 minutes ago, texasstrong12 said:

I don't think you watch college basketball. Here's the leading scorers from last year. 7/40 and 16/80 of the leading scorers in college basketball last year were "bigs". Most of those bigs were what you classify as "stretch bigs" that play on the perimeter. 

College teams don't "pound the ball inside". The game is almost entirely perimeter focused now in college basketball. Teams go with how far their guards take them. 

 http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/statistics/player/_/stat/scoring-per-game/year/2018/seasontype/2/group/50

 

You just can’t make a single post toward me without being insulting, can you? Teams attack the weaknesses of other teams, and our team is going to be at its weakest in the post next year. The idea that every single NCAA team is going to play a perimeter game against every opponent, regardless of matchup, is quite frankly regarded. Even if it means having their guards drive the lane and finish/get fouled, teams are going to take advantage of how weak we will be down low.

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7 minutes ago, txhorns said:

We dont need an elite rim protector to have a great defense.

Nobody said we did, but it’s the obvious counter to “well every other team Shaka has had at Texas was good defensively, therefore we automatically will be again.”

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19 minutes ago, txhorns said:

We dont need an elite rim protector to have a great defense.

In today's game I would much rather have a versatile big that can defend on the perimeter than a big that can block shots. 

Guys like Draymond Green are the type bigs you want in today's game. 

That isn't to say there isn't value in having a big that can block shots, but it's way down the list in terms of necessity when talking about great defenses. 

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And by the way, if we’re going to be insulting, your incessant need to quote stats and articles is borderline pathetic. Literally every argument you make relies on that, as opposed to having an original thought or observation of your own. Stats can serve a purpose, but not when bastardized beyond the point of use. We talk about how Texas is going to be very weak in the post next year and you’re busting out some irrelevant stat about how “X amount of the NCAAs top scorers were guards or wings”, like that has fuck all to do with anything. 

 

Texas is going to regress in the paint next year, it’s a fact, and no matter how many articles you quote proclaiming JV Jaxson Hayes an elite rim protector, or how many ad hominem stats you quote about perimeter players scoring all the points, teams are still going to take advantage of our shortcomings in that area. You question if I even watch the sport- hilarious considering that you post as if you’ve never actually seen a single play, instead only reading articles and stats. Now moving forward perhaps to try and *not* be such a combative prick, and maybe post an original thought or take here and there. Jesus.

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