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2018-19 Texas Longhorns thread


Machinator

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HUGE NEWS!!!! I like watching Kerwin, especially when he's not being asked to initiate/carry the offense. Very excited to get to root for him for another year!

10 minutes ago, texasstrong12 said:

Now we wait to see what happens with Jones. I think there's a decent chance he returns next year too. His "trainer" posted a picture of Jones yesterday and he's looking really healthy. 

Who's his trainer/where did he post that?

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10 minutes ago, UT Lawnghorn said:

HUGE NEWS!!!! I like watching Kerwin, especially when he's not being asked to initiate/carry the offense. Very excited to get to root for him for another year!

Who's his trainer/where did he post that?

A lot of talent in that picture too. 

Edited by texasstrong12
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44 minutes ago, txhorns said:

Great news that Roach is coming back.  It's also looking more and more like Jones will be back next year in some capacity.

Slow your roll on that for now. He's still got more treatment upcoming so it's still too early to take too much from his social media posts.

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11 minutes ago, Catdaddyhorn said:

That's clearly an old pic. Jones hasn't worn his hair like that since freshmen year and just got a cut earlier this week according to his Instagram. 

Could be, but not sure. There's recent pictures on instagram with his hair long like that. These are all from early to mid May. They're either posting a lot of old pictures or his hair has been like that recently. 

 

Edited by texasstrong12
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UT release on Roach:

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University of Texas guard Kerwin Roach II has elected to withdraw his name for the upcoming 2018 NBA Draft and return for his senior season, Roach announced Thursday morning.

"After getting as much information directly from NBA personnel and talking with my family and my coaches, I've decided to return for my senior season at Texas," Roach said. "I'm hungry for the opportunity to make a career in the NBA, but I realize I have to improve in so many areas on the court. I'm also on pace to earn my degree, and that is a big deal for me and my family. I'm really excited to get back to work with my returning teammates and a great group of freshmen."

During his junior season, Roach earned All-Big 12 Conference Honorable Mention accolades and played in 32 of UT's 34 games (31 starts). He led the team in steals (47) and ranked second in assists (115, 3.6 apg), third in scoring (12.3 ppg) and minutes (33.4 mpg) and fourth in rebounding (3.7 rpg). Roach topped the 20-point mark five times and reached double figures in scoring in 20 of his 32 contests.

In UT's 87-83 overtime loss to No. 24/25 Nevada in the NCAA Tournament First Round (March 16), he posted a career-high 26 points while converting a career-best 6-of-10 from three-point range to go along with 5 rebounds, 2 assists and 1 steal in a career-high 45 minutes. During his last 17 games of the season, Roach registered a team-best 14.3 points and 4.1 assists per game while converting 40.5-percent (34-84) from three-point range.

Over his first three seasons in Austin, Roach has played in 97 career games (62 starts). He has topped the 20-point mark seven times and reached double figures in scoring 46 times. Roach enters his senior year with career totals of 959 points, 339 rebounds, 273 assists and 127 steals.

 

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Tim Beam (Inside Texas): A Roster Come Into View

With the happy decision/return of senior-to-be guard Kerwin Roach now behind us, Texas Basketball can look to the future of the 2018-19 season with a clearer understanding of who they will have and what they are working with.

The roster, as of a few minutes ago was finalized as such...

Post
Jaxson Hayes - Fr

Forwards
Dylan Osetkowski - Sr
Jericho Sims - So
Royce Hamm - So
Kamaka Hepa - Fr

Swing Forwards
Gerald Liddell - Fr
Brock Cunningham - Fr

Wing
Jase Febres - So

Combo Guard
Kerwin Roach - Sr.
Andrew Jones - Jr.
Eli Long - Jr.
Courtney Ramey - Fr.

Point Guard
Matt Coleman - So

A few thoughts on the above...

  • It would appear almost set in stone that all of Coleman, Roach, Sims and Osetkowski will start. Who fills in that last spot comes with a lot of variables, such as

1. How much progress has Febres made?
2. How ready to contribute is Liddell?
3. Does Shaka feel comfortable with three ball handlers on the floor at the same time and go with Ramey or Long?
4. What, if anything, can/will Texas get from Jones?

  • The backcourt is loaded but a touch one-dimensional for my liking. It's great to have guards that can "do-it-all", but they have to actually produce across the board or you simply have a bunch of guys who are okay at everything but don't excel at anything (this is probably overly pessimistic, but Long and Ramey need to prove they can score/shoot at this level before we can simply count on it).
  • The frontcourt is much more straightforward with Osetkowski and Sims likely to both be in the 30+ minute range next year with Hepa as the next guy off the bench at both spots and Hamm/Hayes fighting for the other "big" minutes.
  • I think people will be surprised at how good of a prospect Liddell is (he's higher ranked than Hepa, for instance, by some services) and how much he can be a playmaking forward in and around the paint. If he can contribute, he adds a dynamic Texas hasn't had since Tevin left (Mack's clear superiority as a perimeter shooter notwithstanding).
  • Hamm, Cunningham, Hayes and Long appear (to me) to be the players with the toughest road to consistent minutes, but all of them bring value in one way or another.
  • I know people are still clamoring (to some extent) for Havoc, but I just don't know this roster has the makeup to make that work. Maybe for stretches, but not sustained for a full game.


Potential strengths

  • Playmaking is the most obvious and could be special if Texas were to get Jones back in some capacity
  • Perimeter defense is in good hands with Ramey's addition to Coleman and Roach
  • Osetkowski and Sims bring diverse skill sets to the frontcourt and should be solid (if not spectacular) at all levels
  • Offensive firepower will be there as all of Coleman, Roach, Ramey, Liddell, Long, Osetkowski, Hepa and Sims can put the ball on the floor against man while also bringing shooting range

Potential issues

  • The only impactful rim protector (Hayes) isn't a lock to earn consistent minutes and there's nobody else who sticks out as an answer to that question
  • Febres and Hepa are the purest shooters on the roster, but to say both are unproven is a mild understatement
  • Making up for the loss in rebounding from Bamba will have to be taken seriously by everybody. Sims CAN do it and DO and Hepa CAN do it from time to time, but Bamba was a game-in/game-out double double guy. Where does that come from this year?

Question marks

  • Perimeter shooting, as almost always, will float or sink this boat
  • Roach is the surest thing from the perimeter and he was under 30% from deep until late January (hardly deadeye stuff, although also probably the main reason he'll be a Longhorn next year, too, so...)
  • The springtime feedback about Febres has been fantastic, but until he proves he can add some wrinkles of ability off the bounce in the lane, he'll need to be elite from deep to be guarded honestly
  • Other than that, what does Texas get from that next group of guys? Hepa, Coleman, Ramey, Osetkowski and Long all have ability from deep, but are they closer to 25% or 35%? One of those numbers puts Texas in the conversation for a Big 12 title, the other could well put them at the bottom of the league.
  • Jones is the wildcard. The hope is that he'll return and play (to whatever capacity) this season. Can he do that? Can he be what he was? If not, what can he be? At the time of his diagnosis, Jones was shooting just under 47% from deep. That's pretty damn good.

The Endgame

There's no question that Kerwin's decision is program changing in more than one respect. Certainly, he really helps the team with his ability as a playmaker, shooter and defender, but he also signifies a senior that Shaka will have had all four years to groom as he sees fit within his program.

Kerwin's taking a risk by not simply opting to join the G League or head abroad, but he clearly believes Texas is his best option to get a look at the highest of levels.

Yay for us.

As for everybody else, Shaka has put together a diverse team that can attack defenses at every position and has the talent to be a second weekend kind of team (perhaps even more if a Jones-ian miracle occurs).

But shooting simply can't be the issue it's been in every other Shaka year (particularly the last two). If it is, there'll be bigger questions than what Kerwin Roach is up to next year facing this team.

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30 minutes ago, texasstrong12 said:

Could be, but not sure. There's recent pictures on instagram with his hair long like that. These are all from early to mid May. They're either posting a lot of old pictures or his hair has been like that recently. 

 

 Not to be argumentative, but this is from 4 days ago and I saw him talking about getting a fresh cut in an Instagram story just the other day.  Regardless he's clearly gaining his weight back and hopefully that bodes well for his overall health in the future. 

Edited by Catdaddyhorn
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UT release on Berry:

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An assistant coach at Iowa State University for the previous two years,Neill Berry has been named assistant coach at The University of Texas. The 36-year-old Berry brings 13 years of experience at the Division I level, including nine seasons as an assistant coach. He replaces Mike Morrell, who became the head coach at UNC Asheville earlier this spring.

“I’m extremely excited about Neill joining our staff. It’s been about six weeks since Mike got the job at UNC Asheville. I wanted to make sure I did my homework and considered a variety of candidates,” Texas head coach Shaka Smart said. “I did a ton of research on many different guys, trying to figure out who would be the best fit for our program. I kept coming back to the feeling that Neill is the best fit for our staff and our team, and he is a guy who can come in here and hit the ground running in all facets of the job.”

“Neill is a name that kept coming up as I talked to people about who were really good assistant coaches with a strong track record, and guys who were well-rounded with the ability to recruit, coach and relate to players,” Smart continued. “One thing I value greatly about Neill is he will be a tremendous addition in terms of staff chemistry. Everyone that we’ve talked to about him has said he has no ego and is a team player.”

“The fact that Neill has experience at this level and in this league is a real positive,” Smart added. “He’s recruited quite a few guys who have turned out to be much better players than the so-called experts thought they would be. Developing young men is clearly a strength of Neill’s, which is a top priority in our program as well.”

Berry worked the previous three years under coach Steve Prohm at Iowa State, including the final two seasons in the role of assistant coach. After spending his first year as the program’s special assistant to the head coach, Berry was elevated to assistant coach in May 2016. In Berry’s three seasons on the staff, Iowa State posted a 60-41 mark and advanced to a pair of NCAA Tournaments, including a run to the “Sweet 16” in 2015-16.

Three players on the 2017-18 Cyclones earned All-Big 12 Conference honors, including freshman guard Lindell Wigginton. Berry served as the primary recruiter for Wigginton, who was the Cyclones’ first five-star recruit since Craig Brackins in 2007. Wigginton earned All-Big 12 honorable mention accolades and a spot on the Big 12 All-Newcomer team as a freshman. ISU earned three victories last season against Top 15 opponents, including a 70-52 victory against No. 8 Texas Tech. The 18-point win marked the largest margin of victory against a Top 10 team in school history.

Iowa State posted a 24-11 mark (12-6 Big 12, tie for second), won the Big 12 tournament championship and advanced to the NCAA Tournament Second Round in 2016-17. The Cyclones won 92-89 in overtime at No. 3 Kansas, snapping the Jayhawks’ 51-game win streak at Allen Fieldhouse. Iowa State was one of the nation’s best offensive teams during the year, ranking in the top 12 in adjusted offensive efficiency and top 30 in scoring offense (80.8 ppg). The Cyclones ranked No. 16 in the final Associated Press poll.

In 2015-16, Iowa State registered a 23-12 record (10-8 Big 12, fifth) and advanced to the NCAA “Sweet 16.” The Cyclones were ranked in The Associated Press Top 25 all season, climbing as high as No. 4 in the poll. ISU defeated No. 1 Oklahoma, 82-77, marking just the second time in school history the Cyclones topped a No. 1-ranked opponent. Georges Niang earned the 2016 Karl Malone Award, given annually to the nation’s top power forward.

Prior to his arrival at Iowa State, Berry served for three seasons as an assistant coach at High Point University (High Point, N.C.). The Panthers registered a 56-39 record in his three years, including a 37-13 mark in Big South Conference play. High Point advanced to postseason play in each of Berry’s three seasons.

In 2012-13, the Panthers went to the CollegeInsider.com Tournament (CIT), marking the school’s first appearance in Division I postseason play. High Point earned an automatic bid to the Postseason NIT in 2013-14 and advanced to the CIT in 2014-15. The Panthers won the North Division of the Big South twice (2012-13 and 2013-14). The league went away from divisions in 2014-15, and High Point tied with Charleston Southern for the conference title.

Berry was on the staff under head coach Darrin Horn at the University of South Carolina for four years (2008-12). He served his first year (2008-09) as the Director of Player Development, before being elevated to assistant coach in 2009-10.

Berry began his coaching career as an intern under Horn at Western Kentucky in the 2005-06 season. The Hilltoppers won the 2006 Sun Belt Conference East Division title for the first time in three years, recording a 23-8 mark (12-2 Sun Belt) and advancing to the Postseason NIT. Western Kentucky went 22-11 (12-6 Sun Belt) the following season. Berry earned his first full-time assistant job in 2007-08 with the Hilltoppers, and Western Kentucky registered a 29-7 record, won the Sun Belt Conference Tournament title and advanced to the NCAA “Sweet 16.” The Hilltoppers compiled a school-record 29 wins, including victories against Drake and San Diego in the NCAA tourney before falling to top-seed UCLA in the Round of 16.

Berry (born April 11, 1982) played basketball at Southeastern Louisiana University (Hammond, La.) for five seasons (2000-05). After serving as a reserve in his first two years at SLU, he redshirted during the 2002-03 season in order to increase his playing time over his final two years. In his junior season (2003-04), Berry led the Lions to a 20-9 mark and a share of the Southland Conference regular-season championship (11-5 league record). As a senior (2004-05), SLU went 24-9, won the SLC regular-season (13-3 league mark) and tournament championships and advanced to the NCAA Tournament for the first time in school history. He earned his bachelor’s degree in marketing in 2003.

A native of Madison, Miss., Berry and his wife, Ashly, have a son, Ty, and two daughters, Kendall and Connor.

“I am extremely grateful for the opportunity to join Coach Smart’s staff at Texas,” Berry said. “I have always had tremendous respect for Coach Smart from afar, and I am excited about the opportunity to learn from him and help out in any way possible moving forward. I have loved my time working for Coach Prohm at Iowa State and have learned so much from him, both on and off the floor. He has been an unbelievable mentor in my life. It was going to take a special opportunity to leave Iowa State, and I believe Texas is this opportunity. It is an amazing university in a great location with tremendous tradition and support. My family and I are very excited to get to Austin.”

 

 

Edited by Machinator
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2 minutes ago, Machinator said:

I think the more important question is, whom do they return, compared to Texas?

In some ways that's important. But they finished 65th in Pomeroy which is not good. They had 2 senior starters last year, one of which was their star, Maten.

The reason I mention incoming class is because it's an indicator of overall program trajectory. When we roll in their with a roster that is basically at a higher talent level than their's at every position, it could get pretty ugly for them.

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8 minutes ago, Cameltoe said:

In some ways that's important. But they finished 65th in Pomeroy which is not good. They had 2 senior starters last year, one of which was their star, Maten.

The reason I mention incoming class is because it's an indicator of overall program trajectory. When we roll in their with a roster that is basically at a higher talent level than their's at every position, it could get pretty ugly for them.

In that case, looking at a rolling average over three years or something like that is more indicative. In any case, Georgia had a transition class due to a coaching change, so a single class comparison wouldn't say much here.

I expect that we'll be the more talented team.

Edited by Machinator
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5 minutes ago, Machinator said:

In that case, looking at a rolling average over three years or something like that is more indicative.

Yeah I hear you, but in practice you don't really have to do that. Look at the schools with the top 10 recruiting classes every year and it's a pretty good indicator of which teams are going to be the top 10 teams in the near future (most of them already occupying those positions).

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Georgia went 18-15 last year and they lose arguably their two best players in Maten and Parker. Maten was pretty much their team last year. 

They might be a 10-15 win team next year. I haven't looked at this close enough but I wouldn't be surprised if  Georgia is the weakest team in the SEC next year. 

Edited by texasstrong12
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Also an interesting nugget on Bamba from last year. Most of his blocks weren't actually at the rim. We keep talking about Bamba as this great "rim protector" when that's not really what he was last year. There will certainly be an impact losing Bamba, don't get me wrong, but he wasn't the type shot blocker Konate is. Bamba's impact might be bigger in terms of blocked shots on the perimeter than it is as "rim protection".  

Jeff Haley hit the nail on the head back in February: 

"Every player varies somewhat in their distribution of blocked shots. Some shot blockers log even more of their blocks at the rim; West Virginia big man Sagaba Konate (my current pick for Big 12 defensive player of the year) is probably the most extreme example, having logged 74 of his 79 total blocks at the basket. If you have watched a few Mountaineer games, this probably isn't surprising; virtually all of Konate's blocks seem to be humiliating episodes where a would be dunker or layup taker finds himself in over his head when he gets to the cup. The net result of all of this is that West Virginia opponents have only converted on 51 percent of their shots near the basket, with one out of every five of these attempts getting blocked. And Konate does more than just block shots; he is influencing some of the ones that go unblocked, as WVU opponents have only managed to connect on 64 percent of their unblocked shots around the basket. (For comparison, that number for Texas is just under 71 percent.)

So here is what is weird about Mo Bamba's shot blocking numbers. Only 37 of his 102 blocked shots have occurred on shots taken at the rim. This is one of the lowest rates I could find for a player with more than 60 blocked shots.

This is important, because these shots away from the rim that Bamba is blocking just aren't as valuable as the ones that occur at the basket. These shots generally are far less likely to go in if unblocked, and so blocking them has a lower effect on the total number of points allowed. Against the Longhorns, unblocked twos that aren't logged at the rim go in about 39 percent of the time; Bamba and other Texas shot blockers lower this percentage to about 34 percent."

 

Edited by texasstrong12
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Team stats where a player is "on the floor" vs "not on the floor" have been shown to have accuracy problems. There's just too much noise in the data with 4 other guys out there doing stuff.

If you watched the games last season then you should be excited about 6'-9" Jericho Sims coming back, plain and simple. We also have in the frontcourt 6-9 Osetkowski, 6-9 Kemaka Hepa, 6-10 Jaxson Hayes, and 6-8 Royce Hamm.

None of those guys have the physique of Bamba, but they all have the potential to be more effective NCAA players than Bamba was in his one erratic freshman season here.

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6 minutes ago, Cameltoe said:

Team stats where a player is "on the floor" vs "not on the floor" have been shown to have accuracy problems. There's just too much noise in the data with 4 other guys out there doing stuff.

If you watched the games last season then you should be excited about 6'-9" Jericho Sims coming back, plain and simple. We also have in the frontcourt 6-9 Osetkowski, 6-9 Kemaka Hepa, 6-10 Jaxson Hayes, and 6-8 Royce Hamm.

None of those guys have the physique of Bamba, but they all have the potential to be more effective NCAA players than Bamba was in his one erratic freshman season here.

Stahp. Seriously, stop. I really can’t tell if you’re serious or trolling 100% of the time.

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7 minutes ago, Goo Punch said:

Stahp. Seriously, stop. I really can’t tell if you’re serious or trolling 100% of the time.

Hint: I'm not trolling. I really am stoked about our returning players, our recruiting class, our coaching staff, and next year.

Crazy, I know! BTW, why are you so obsessed with neg-repping every one of my posts?

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Every big man we have may end up being more effective than Bamba?! Mo Bamba was an All American and NPOY finalist and the best defensive big man in school history during his one season here. The shit you say is completely unbelievable. Nobody can possibly believe essentially any of your takes on this program, yet you make them anyway.

Also, be glad that the only time I actually do neg you is retaliation to your own neg binges on me. You’d be crowd sourced in 48 hours if I was actually habitually negging you for your trolling posts.

Edited by Goo Punch
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3 minutes ago, texasstrong12 said:

This is quite the stretch.

Go ahead and enlighten me as to which year Chris Mihm or Chirs Owens was better defensively than Mo Bamba. I’ll wait. Prince Ibeh’s play during conference his senior year is the only guy who comes close. Maybe if Ridley hadn’t gotten hurt he’d have a case from that year, but he did get hurt.

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