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2018-19 Texas Longhorns thread


Machinator

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10 minutes ago, BigOrange1 said:

13.4 points on 40% shooting is spare as fuck and grabbing 7.2 rebounds per game while playing the 4 35 minutes/game isn't terribly impressive either.

I agree there were efficiency issues last year. I'm just going to agree to disagree with the idea Osetkowski is a "net negative for the program". 

There would be program after program lining up for Osetkowski if he transferred from Texas. 

Edited by texasstrong12
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4 hours ago, CurlyDumps said:

Me, too. Ranking on Balbay is lame as fuck.  Being clueless about him makes it worse. And just further evidence that CT is not a UT fan.  He’s a Shaka Smart fan.

CT never watched a second of Dogus Balbay’s UT career.

Unfortunately I had season tickets on row 15 of section 35 for Balbay's entire career. I sat one section over at the same row as Barnes's wife and kids. I said Balbay was a competent defender, that's not "ranking" on his defense. Someone said it was "elite." I wouldn't describe it as "elite", but the bigger point is that we didn't win games because of Balbay's defense. And we did lose games because of his offense. Defense is something that most players can do competently if they set their mind to it and progress as a player. There's nothing that special about being a competent defender as a guard. Balbay wasn't out there protecting the rim or blocking shots. He didn't possess suffocating length. However good an "on ball defender" of other guards he was, it doesn't really matter because it doesn't make a huge difference in a game.

On the other hand, having a PG on the floor who is almost no threat to score whatsoever and without a doubt no threat to score from the outside is a huge weight to wear around your neck as a team and it showed. When defenses learned to sag way off him on the perimeter it paralyzed our entire offense despite our roster being stacked that year with good scorers.

If you wanna defend Balbay against my criticisms, explain to me how his defense won games for us. Go.

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13 minutes ago, Cameltoe said:

When defenses learned to sag way off him on the perimeter it paralyzed our entire offense despite our roster being stacked that year with good scorers.

Thing is Barnes realized this in Balbay's final year at Texas. That's why I find it odd that someone like Derka is adamantly defending Balbay's offensive game when Barnes slashed Balbay's minutes for this very reason. Hamilton, Joseph and Brown were better offensive players. 

Balbay was a 15-20 minute type player that could at times impact the game on the defensive end. I get why he was a fan favorite but he was a complete mess on the offensive end. 

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39 minutes ago, HookEm said:

Balbay was a tremendous defender. Maybe the best defensive guard we have ever had here. 

Balbay was also one of the worst offensive players we have had that played such an important role for us.

The good always outweighed the bad for me though.

I like that you're trying weigh both sides and be fair but the notion that his defensive game was a bigger positive than his offensive game was a negative is ludicrous. I watched just about every game he played for UT. At no point during that stretch did I come away with "Wow, Balbay's defense was really a big factor for us tonight." While I often came away thinking "wow, Balbay's inability to do anything offensively really hurt us tonight."

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Edit: in reply to “explain to me how his defense win games for us. Go.”

 

Well first you should probably cite examples of how his offense lost games for us, particularly when he was more of a titular starter who played fewer minutes than and ceded time late in games to J’Covan Brown, our complement to Balbay. Next, I already posted two different articles crediting our perimeter defense (led by Doj) as the catalyst behind Texas’ 2009 win vs Michigan State. Balbay was also famously credited with stopping Big XII POY James Anderson as Texas handled Oklahoma State in Stillwater. You sure seem to have forgotten a lot for someone who claims to have watched it all go down.

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12 minutes ago, Cameltoe said:

I like that you're trying weigh both sides and be fair but the notion that his defensive game was a bigger positive than his offensive game was a negative is ludicrous. I watched just about every game he played for UT. At no point during that stretch did I come away with "Wow, Balbay's defense was really a big factor for us tonight." While I often came away thinking "wow, Balbay's inability to do anything offensively really hurt us tonight."

That’s because you’re a moron. Also, it’s not just defense vs offense here. We had one PG with virtuoso skills offensively but with a five cent head and a proclivity for stupid shots and dumb turnovers, and another PG who played lock down defense *and* had a 3-1 AST/TO ratio to go with his optimal shot selection. If you’re going to crush Balbay for his offense then you’re also going to need to consider every stupid shit that J’Covan Brown missed as a tie over. We used the two counter balancing PG’s together, and in the same way that most would say that Brown’s scoring made up for his lack of defense and bone headed plays, anyone who understands basketball can see plain as day how Doj’s strengths mitigated his own weaknesses. THAT is how Balbay’s overall play (not just his defense) helped us win games. 

Edited by Goo Punch
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I'm glad that you brought J'Covan into this because he makes the argument all the more easy for me and damning for Barnes. Like I said I had season tickets during this time and I watched a player in J'Covan Brown come in and have a huge positive impact for our team on many occasions. Not so Balbay. I watched J'Covan literally WIN games for us, for example, the only game we ever won in Allen Fieldhouse we won because of J'Covan Brown. I watched J'Covan work effortlessly in tandem with Hamilton, the two playing off each other magnificently.

We never won a game against any decent opponent because of Balbay. The fact that his playing time was also keeping Brown out of the game was absolutely infuriating and much to the amusement and delight of all Jayhawk fans every time we played them in those days.

Edited by Cameltoe
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29 minutes ago, Cameltoe said:

The fact that his playing time was also keeping Brown out of the game was absolutely infurirating and much to the amusement and delight of all Jayhawk fans every time we played them in those days.

This brings back memories. McComas at OB would go crazy over Balbay getting minutes over Brown in '10. There were some legendary rants from McComas on this subject. I will give Barnes credit that he at least slashed Balbay's minutes in '11 in favor of Brown and Joseph. 

 

Edited by texasstrong12
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17 minutes ago, texasstrong12 said:

I will give Barnes credit that he at least slashed Balbay's minutes in '11 in favor of Brown and Joseph. 

 

I wouldn't give him that much credit. He still insisted on starting Balbay the entire 2011 season, despite the Wake Forest game in 2010 making it painfully obvious that Hamilton/Brown had way more life than Balbay/Hamilton.

Balbay got almost as many minutes as his "backup" J'Covan that year, which first off begs the question why the fuck is Barnes running a team where the backup PG gets more minutes than the starting PG. I actually think the reason is because we would get down on the scoreboard in the first half and then he would have to leave Brown in to have some hope of a comeback. It was almost like a Jeff Fisher approach starting Kerry Collins every year and then relying on VY to bring the Titans back only when he was forced to.

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34 minutes ago, Cameltoe said:

Balbay got almost as many minutes as his "backup" J'Covan that year, which first off begs the question why the fuck is Barnes running a team where the backup PG gets more minutes than the starting PG. 

No doubt, that was always odd. I guess what I'm saying is I think Barnes finally realized Balbay's deficiencies in the '11 season. It was obvious after the K-State game in '11 that Barnes knew he couldn't play Balbay many minutes if they were going to have any chance to win big. Barnes was slow to cut Balbay's minutes, but after the K-State game it was obvious Barnes pretty much viewed Balbay as a bench player in terms of minutes. 

https://www.burntorangenation.com/2011/2/28/2022102/texas-basketball-struggles-continue-as-kansas-state-ruins-senior-night

This post after the K-State game summed up everything. 

"Dogus Balbay. We have the worst halfcourt offensive point guard in the top 50, yet this was a player that was purported to be a solid shooter from 15 feet coming in from Turkey. Now he’s terrified to raise up from 10. It’s quite comical really. To watch teams give up the same easy money shots to Balbay that KSU bigs ate up tonight for bucket after bucket was maddening, but I must admit I had to chuckle at some points. So KSU’s 6-9 inch post Curtis Kelly can go 6-8 from ten feet but Doge Balbay can’t muster one made jumper? Nice."

Edited by texasstrong12
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11 minutes ago, Machinator said:

Seems like with Cremo it'll come down to what Roach does.

Maybe, but I'm not sure why it should. They are two completely different players. I think it's pretty easy to sell Cremo on playing time with anyone on the roster because we don't have shooters. 

Or maybe you think Jones is back and we don't have roster room for Cremo if Roach doesn't declare? 

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16 hours ago, texasstrong12 said:

Maybe, but I'm not sure why it should. They are two completely different players. I think it's pretty easy to sell Cremo on playing time with anyone on the roster because we don't have shooters. 

Or maybe you think Jones is back and we don't have roster room for Cremo if Roach doesn't declare? 

The latter.

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Ramey is officially in. This is our roster now:

G: Long (RS Jr), Jones (Jr), Coleman (So), Febres (So), Ramey (Fr)

Wing: Cunningham (Fr), Liddell (Fr)

F/C: Osetkowski (RS Sr), Sims (So), Hamm (So), Hepa (Fr), Hayes (Fr)

 

Edited by Machinator
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I got a photo of Andrew Jones shooting at Cooley today from Jacob Young’s IG but I can’t post it because of the tapa BS. Suffice to say he’s all skin and bones still. He’s nowhere near being in shape to play. I wouldn’t blame anyone who isn’t counting on him ever being the same again. He’s still got a long way to go.

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Let's assume Roach comes back ( I would put the likelihood at 80%).  Let's also assume Jones comes back, but on a minutes restriction. 

If so, I would put the minutes allocation at something like this:

  • Coleman, SO      32 min - 32 PG 
  • Long, JR             16 min  - 4 PG, 12 SG  
  • Ramey, FR           10 min  - 4 PG,   6 SG
  • Roach, SR           30 min  -            13 SG, 17 SF
  • Jones, JR            12 min  -               4 SG,    8 SF
  • Febres, SO           15 min  -             5 SG, 10 SF
  • Liddell, FR              8 min  -                           5 SF,  3 PF                      
  • Sims, SO              28 min -                                     7 PF, 21 C
  • Osetkowski, SR  26 min -                                   22 PF,   4 C            
  • Hamm, SO             8  min -                                      8 PF
  • Hepa, FR               10 min -                                                  8 C
  • Hayes, FR              5 min -                                                   5 C
  • Cunningham, FR - redshirt?  

Pretty tough to find time for everybody.  Somebody is going to get close to zero minutes or will need to redshirt.  If we get Cremo, then I would assume that Jones will be out for the year.

My thought is that Febres will start, but that Long will be the first one off the bench subbing for whichever of Coleman, Roach, or Febres needs a break.

I HOPE we limit Osetkowski to a good 26 min per game instead of the sloppy 35 minutes he played last year.

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Roach at 80% chance to return is highly optimistic. I'd put the chances of it a lot lower. 

Ramey is a 5-star or near-5-star freshman PG with decent guard height at 6'3". He will probably get a lot more minutes than Elijah Long, and honestly probably more minutes than Febres too.

Liddel could also eat into Febres's minutes. A lot of new faces next year, we'll just have to see.

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4 hours ago, longhornmatt said:

Villanova and Kansas?  Well ... that doesn’t sound good.

Kansas has Garrett, Grimes, Dotson, Moore, and Cunliffe all in the backcourt. Divicenzo will clearly be the deciding factor for Nova. 

4 hours ago, HookEm said:

Let's assume Roach comes back ( I would put the likelihood at 80%).  Let's also assume Jones comes back, but on a minutes restriction. 

If so, I would put the minutes allocation at something like this:

  • Coleman, SO      32 min - 32 PG 
  • Long, JR             16 min  - 4 PG, 12 SG  
  • Ramey, FR           10 min  - 4 PG,   6 SG
  • Roach, SR           30 min  -            13 SG, 17 SF
  • Jones, JR            12 min  -               4 SG,    8 SF
  • Febres, SO           15 min  -             5 SG, 10 SF
  • Liddell, FR              8 min  -                           5 SF,  3 PF                      
  • Sims, SO              28 min -                                     7 PF, 21 C
  • Osetkowski, SR  26 min -                                   22 PF,   4 C            
  • Hamm, SO             8  min -                                      8 PF
  • Hepa, FR               10 min -                                                  8 C
  • Hayes, FR              5 min -                                                   5 C
  • Cunningham, FR - redshirt?  

Pretty tough to find time for everybody.  Somebody is going to get close to zero minutes or will need to redshirt.  If we get Cremo, then I would assume that Jones will be out for the year.

My thought is that Febres will start, but that Long will be the first one off the bench subbing for whichever of Coleman, Roach, or Febres needs a break.

I HOPE we limit Osetkowski to a good 26 min per game instead of the sloppy 35 minutes he played last year.

Hepa is going to get more than 10 minutes a game. Same with Ramey. And I don't think anyone will average over 30 min/gm. At least they better not. 

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Shaka’s style has been to play a bunch of guys 30+ mpg and to leave a bunch of dudes riding pine. Aside from his first year which was by far his most complete and balanced roster, his two teams that have been largely his players have seen three or four guys each over 30 mpg. I don’t see how Sims, Roach, Coleman, and DO don’t all play 30 mpg next year.

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Quote

I don’t see how Sims, Roach, Coleman, and DO don’t all play 30 mpg next year.

Well that's basically what I tried to lay out (except with Sims at 28 mpg mainly because I think he is going to be in foul trouble a lot).

It is a lot harder to figure out where the other minutes are going to go, especially at the other guard spot.  I think there is a good chance that Long and Febres get ~20 minutes each and that everybody else just gets scraps.

is there a chance that Jones redshirts?  Did he get a redshirt this year?

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11 minutes ago, HookEm said:

Well that's basically what I tried to lay out (except with Sims at 28 mpg mainly because I think he is going to be in foul trouble a lot).

It is a lot harder to figure out where the other minutes are going to go, especially at the other guard spot.  I think there is a good chance that Long and Febres get ~20 minutes each and that everybody else just gets scraps.

is there a chance that Jones redshirts?  Did he get a redshirt this year?

I'm pretty sure he's eligible for a medical hardship waiver.

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Seems pretty impossible to predict minutes for next year's roster. Way too many new faces and unknowns.

Liddell and Ramey are extremely highly rated out of high school, and Hayes, Hepa, and Cunningham aren't far behind.

Roach's return is completely up in the air and my gut is telling me not to count on his return.

Long is another brand new face, and while he's an upperclassmen with NCAA experience it's hard to see him eclipsing the field here.

Febres's place in the rotation is hard to figure as well after a decent but not spectacular freshman campaign. We didn't see much of Hamm so I don't know where he stands.

Jones obviously fits in if he happens to be ready but obviously he has bigger concerns and I'd give him probably another whole year off.

The good news we might be pretty damn deep and whoever ultimately gets minutes should be playing pretty well.

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4 minutes ago, HookEm said:

With this much guard depth, I will literally shed a tear if we don't press.  Plus I thought Sims was great in the press when we actually ran it last year.

Our ability to press will be completely dependent on our bigs.  If Hepa, Hamm, Hayes and Liddell can play 40+ quality minutes a game between them then hopefully we press a lot.

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I think Hepa will get some minutes because he can shoot. Hepa is the most skilled big we've recruited in some time. The only question is if he has the physical ability  to play at this level as a freshman. 

Bitterwhiteguy thinks Hepa is the player in the '18 class with the most NBA potential. I think it's Ramey, but I understand the Hepa love. Really skilled big. 

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I mean if Hepa is the player of this class then this is going to be an historically good recruiting class for UT. This really bodes well for the program actually, to have all these top-100 type guys coming in and competing for playing time. It's probably even a good thing that none of them are obvious one-and-dones like Bamba was because now we can have guys staying in the program, waiting for their upperclassmen years to become stars, etc..

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15 hours ago, Cameltoe said:

I mean if Hepa is the player of this class then this is going to be an historically good recruiting class for UT. This really bodes well for the program actually, to have all these top-100 type guys coming in and competing for playing time. It's probably even a good thing that none of them are obvious one-and-dones like Bamba was because now we can have guys staying in the program, waiting for their upperclassmen years to become stars, etc..

This is Shaka’s third best class in four tries- to project it to be “an historically good class” is just dumb, especially since you’re supposed to be this decades-long season ticket holder who remembers everything. Nobody in this class for Texas is a lock to even have any sort of NBA career, but yeah, let’s set our expectations at “historically good” at a school that pumps out NBA players and has signed the following classes:

2001- James Thomas, Brian Boddicker, Brandon Mouton, Royal Ivey

2004- LA and Booby

2007- KD, DJ, Damion James

2009- Avery Bradley, Jordan Hamilton, J’Covan Brown

2010- Tristan Thompson and Cory Joseph

2014- Myles Turner and Jordan Barnett

2016- Jarrett Allen and Andrew Jones

2017- Mo Bamba, Matt Coleman, Jericho Sims

Edited by Goo Punch
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Quick note from following James Banks on IG- this fool’s diet SUCKS! I’m not even joking, this dude is constantly posting a bunch of slamming-ass food, and while nobody champions slamming and going hard as much as I do, it’s probably less than ideal for a major D-1 athlete to be slamming and going hard on every meal.

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2 hours ago, Goo Punch said:

This is Shaka’s third best class in four tries- to project it to be “an historically good class” is just dumb, especially since you’re supposed to be this decades-long season ticket holder who remembers e

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I guess it depends on what you mean by "historically good".  If you means in terms of NBA talent, then this class may not be that special when compared to the ones above.

But if it means contribution to UT wins, then a lot of those above classes weren't that great.  Another way to look at it is cumulative win shares for the class across all years.

  Players WS Size WS PP
2000  J. Thomas, B. Boddicker, B. Mouton, R. Ivey 42 4 11
2001  T. Ford, S. Harris, J. Klotz 19 3 6
2002  B. Buckman, K. Paulino 23 2 12
2003  PJ Tucker, K. Taylor, E. Moreno 19 3 6
2004  L. Aldridge, D. Gibson, C. Atchley, M. Williams, D. Dowell 35 5 7
2005  A. Abrams, J. Lewis, C. Winder, C. Miles 18 4 4
2006  K. Durant, D. James, D. Augustin, J. Mason, M. Hill, D. Pittman, H. Smith 63 7 9
2007  G. Johnson, D. Balbay, A. Wangmene, C. Chapman 25 4 6
2008  V. Ward 1 1 1
2009  J. Hamilton, A. Bradley, J. Brown, S. Williams 24 4 6
2010  C. Joseph, T. Thompson 10 2 5
2011  M. Kabongo, J. Holmes, S. McClellan, J. Bond, J. Lewis, K. Thomas 29 6 5
2012  C. Ridley, C. Lammert, J. Felix, D. Holland, P. Ibeh, I. Ppapetrou 38 6 6
2013   I. Taylor, K. Yancy, D. Croaker, M. Walker,  16 4 4
2014  M. Turner, J. Barnett 5 2 2
2015  K. Roach, E. Davis, T. Mack 12 3 4
2016  J. Allen, A. Jones, J. Banks, J. Young, D. Osetkowski 12 5 2
2017  M. Bamba, M. Coleman, J. Febres, J. Sims, R. Hamm 10 5 2
2018  C. Ramey, K. Hepa, J. Hayes, G. Liddell, B. Cunningham       

Myles Turner's class contributed almost nothing to the program.  Same with Joseph + Thompson.

Last year's class and this year's class look to have a number of 3-4 year players that should make a big contribution to the program by the time they are done.  I freaking love that 2000 class.  

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Good info, HE.  If Osetkowski is part of 2016 class, then Long should be part of 2017 class.  

I think Derka is right that Shaka's history is five or six guys play a lot of minutes and it appears that he plays guys he trusts.  I think his options for trusting ball handlers goes up with Coleman, Ramey and Long.  Advantage from last year is that Coleman doesn't have to play as much and hopefully he will learn not to commit stupid fouls.  If Roach comes back, he will get a lot of minutes.  I think Liddell gets decent minutes due to being a sf. More minutes if he shows he can defend.  Sims minutes depend on his foul trouble so I expect Hayes to get some decent minutes.  And Hepa will get minutes as backup but also when Shaka goes small and Osetkowski moves to center.  What I hope is that all freshman show that they deserve minutes and force Shaka to play a big rotation.  I would be very surprised if Cunningham becomes a part of the rotation.

 

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OB War Room (From McComas)

If Shaka Smart is trying to keep everyone guessing and information about his assistant coach vacancy to himself, he’s doing a great job of it. I spent this morning and afternoon reaching out to sources with ties to the Texas program as well as people outside the program, including some nationally that always have their pulse on college hoops. No one has heard a thing. 

I asked a couple of sources if I was going crazy for thinking it’s odd there’s nothing floating around. “You’re not,” responded one of them, who referred to the process as very under the radar.

The educated guess, which is the best I can do at this point, is this opening gets filled this month. Originally, I was told Smart would really take his time with this hire, and that’s proven true. 

Guard Andrew Jones was around the Texas program this week hanging out, doing some basketball work, and more. He remains in a battle with Leukemia, obviously, but the progression continues. And speaking of guards around the program, Kerwin Roach II remains a full participant with his team, and heard again that he did not receive a NBA Combine invite. But I also heard again that it might not matter. Time will tell. 


On the recruiting front, Texas is still pushing as hard as it can to land Albany graduate transfer guard Joe Cremo. Tyrese Maxey, a 2019 five-star guard, announced today he plans to make his college commitment on May 9th. My bet is he ends up reclassifying too. Barring a big surprise, Kentucky is the leader. Texas has done a good job selling Maxey on the idea of staying home and representing his state, but UK’s lead will likely be too much. Jaden McDaniels, a 6-9 wing/forward, is a definite name to follow in the 2019 class. From what I’ve heard, the Longhorns have done a good job of getting in on the recruitment early, and have established themselves as a main factor.

Also, heard that Alabama transfer Braxton Key reached out to Texas. Key picked Alabama over Texas out of Oak Hill Academy, and is a talented combo forward that had a good freshman season before a tough, injury-filled sophomore campaign. He could be a name to follow if Texas misses on Cremo and loses Roach, although I think the focus would still be on adding someone that can help next season. Key would have to sit out next season. Plus, he’s reportedly visiting Virginia this weekend and also Miami. 

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20 minutes ago, Machinator said:

Inside Texas say Royal Ivey (currently an OKC assistant) is a possibility for filling Mike Morrell's vacancy.

I would love that hire. I love everything about his pedigree, from his roots, to his work ethic, to his time in the league and his connections, to the amount of respect that basketball guys have for him. 

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On 4/30/2018 at 4:55 PM, Goo Punch said:
I got a photo of Andrew Jones shooting at Cooley today from Jacob Young’s IG but I can’t post it because of the tapa BS. Suffice to say he’s all skin and bones still. He’s nowhere near being in shape to play. I wouldn’t blame anyone who isn’t counting on him ever being the same again. He’s still got a long way to go.

 


Where AJ needs and deserves to be:

2038ccf52f636a12410d1285d1dc6dd7.jpg

Where AJ currently is:

547a731b2eb12aec5db6cf44c7f1f029.jpg

If this kid ever makes a comeback it will be remarkable. But we all know that he’s determined to do just that, and that he’s been doing everything he can to get back to playing ball, despite everything he’s going through. I really hope he gets what he deserves. The day he comes back to play for this team will be a day to celebrate. Hook em AJ.

 

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