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Heads up to anyone that wants to play futures that its worth checking the prediction markets in addition to sports books. For the most part in the US that means Kalshi, although Polymarket might start taking US customers soon. Kalshi will take credit cards, bank transfers etc, so its simple to get money in and out. 

There are several possible advantages of the prediction markets: 1.) you can usually find better odds than on sports books as they arent making juice the same way. 2.) each "bet" is a season long contract that remains open until resolution. This means you can sell you action at any point in the season (or game) or add more if the odds get better and you still like the end result. 3.) For every yes side, there is a no side, meaning you can explicitly bet that a team wont win the national title for example. the odds wont be great now, because nobody is a big favorite, but it can be a good hedging tool later in the season. You also may have more options on futures bets like win totals. To take Torn ACL's example of season wins, right now they have about 6 different win bets for every team (6.5, 8.5. 10.5 etc...) as well as bets for the exact number of wins etc... 

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The way these markets works is that you buy contracts at any value between 1 and 99 cents. All contracts resolve to either $0 (no) or $1 (yes) at the end of the contract.  So for instance if you buy 100 contracts at 10 cents, and that bet is successful, the payout is $100, so its the same thing as +900 odds. I created a few functions in excel to calculate ML odds to Pred market, payouts,  etc... but its not rocket surgery. 

The other reason to consider the prediction markets is for in game betting. Here is an example of how much better the odds are on Kalshi for a random baseball game going on right now (philly vs wash): My sports book currently has: Philly -424, wash +297, Kalshi has it at  Philly.78 (same as -354), wash .23(same as +334). So the odds are better on both sides of that bet. The bigger the underdog the more pronounced the payoff advantage will be on Kalshi. Its a great hedging tool. 

For specific game betting, they only offer winners (no spreads, or totals) but the odds are almost always better. And again, you can sell at anytime during the game. Right now the odds on college football games are a bit inflated because they are still weeks away, but usually at game time or during the games the total of yes bet + no bet will be around $1.01. Last week I bought Scheffler when he briefly dipped down to .10 in the golf tournament. When he later got above .50, I sold half my contracts meaning I made money, even though he didnt win the tournament

If anyone wants to give it a shot, here's a referral code tied to my account. kalshi.com/sign-up/?referral=c6aa1d10-7826-47cc-ad3b-d827cb315c4a 

If you use that link, deposit money and buy 100 contracts of some event, we each get credited with $10. Not a lot, but it beats a kick in the dick. 

Edited by Blotto
  • Hook 'Em 2
Posted
On 8/2/2025 at 1:51 PM, Horn of Gabriel said:

Post your bets here.  Anyone doing win totals?  I was in Vegas last month and stopped by the MGM sports book to lay this one down 🤘🤘🤘

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Made the same $100 bet at Bellagio early June.  Also wanted to bet the softball team to win the NC, but "we don't have a line on softball."  Da fuk?

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