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Posted
12 hours ago, JBJ said:

 1     Ohio State    (1)
 2     Indiana    (2)
 3     Texas A&M    (3)
 4     Georgia    (4)
 5     Texas Tech    (5)
 6     Ole Miss    (6)
 7     Oregon    (7)
 8     Oklahoma    (8)
 9     Notre Dame    (9)
 10     Alabama    (10)
 11     BYU    (11)
 12     Utah    (12)
 13     Miami    (13)
 14     Texas    (17)
 15     Vanderbilt    (15)

 16     Michigan    (18)
 17     USC    (15)
 18     Virginia    (19)
 19     Tennessee    (20)
 20     Tulane    (24)
 21     Arizona State    (25)
 22     Washington    (NR) 
 23     Missouri    (22)
 24     Iowa    (NR)
 25     Illinois    (21)


 

My guess. 20+ is a crapshoot and I haven't really agreed with the teams the committee has put there.

They will rank another ACC team - probably SMU who is 23 in FPI and 18 in Sagarin. I think they want a ranked ACCCG so people bitch about the autobid less. 

Posted
7 hours ago, satyanash said:

 

The most presitigous bowl game outside of the CFP is probably the (Cheez-It) Citrus Bowl, which theoretically matches the top non-CFP Big Ten team against the top non-CFP SEC team (although in reality we know the SEC picks and chooses bowl matchups, so it could be anyone). 

So you’re saying you still can’t spell Citrus without UT?

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Posted
3 hours ago, The Dog said:

Gonna be wild to see Indiana at #1 after Michigan beats Ohio State again.

I think that is a potential nightmare for Notre Dame and other bubblers. I have heard if UM>OSUe the Big ten championship game will be between IU and Oregon.  But then they have to put Michigan in the playoff and of course Ohio State is there too.  So four BUG teams. 

 

Then if they apply head-to-head logic, Oklahoma jumps in based on the win over Michigan. 4 SEC teams too?

 

Posted
3 hours ago, The Dog said:

yeah but it would be really fucking funny. 

How about Mich loses a close game ala 2006 and the talking heads demand a rematch?

 

Specifically because the game is on Fox, ESPN manufacturers a reason so they can broadcast it.

Posted
On 11/21/2025 at 5:32 PM, JBJ said:

I agree on these two points, but models do a decent job of churning all the data and spitting out estimates that are pretty close to reality.  The more quality non-conference games that we get the more reliable it becomes to do this.  However, having done this a number of years, bowls just don't majorly change what the model thinks about teams or conferences, even though that's when half of the good games happen.

The issue with SOS specifically is that there are several different methods trying to measure different things that all call themselves SOS.  When people colloquially use it, they are trying to answer, "How difficult is it (or how good a team do you need to be) to play through a schedule and make the playoff?"  Not all models are even trying to answer that in their SOS rankings, though. (And people will cherry-pick.)

100 percent accurate. And to complicate things further, stats start doing counter-intuitive things that go against the way people colloquially talk about a “difficult” schedule. 
 

Two simplified models for the five game “meat” of two schedules:

Team A: Four games where they have a 75 percent chance of winning, one game that is very hard against a very good opponent and they have a 25 percent chance of winning. 

Team B: Five games, they are all favored, all have a 60 percent chance of winning. 

The probability of running the table for both teams is basically identical (a bit under 8 percent), and in fact Team B has a slightly lower chance. But most fans and observers will greatly reward Team A because of that one very good win, and comparatively dismiss Team B because they are all games that they “should have won.”
 

And that’s where a committee needs to plunge beyond surface “best wins/losses” discussions and get deeper on analytics when weighing teams.

In general, humans tend to do two things when looking back at events have have happened whether sports, elections, or games of chance: 

1. Are over-impressed when something happens that is “against the odds,” even something that only has a 10 or 5 percent chance of happening WILL happen. And when it does, it doesn’t mean the original odds were wrong. 

2. Are under-impressed when something happens that the “odds favor,” as cumulatively these things begin plummeting quickly.

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