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Posted

Before the have to contribute to the dysfunctional family Christmas thread, please help solve the following math problem/family argument.

Target had a Black Friday deal.  First 100 in line win a prize.  10 of the prizes are bonus, more valuable prizes. 

If my wife, 2 sons, SIL, and mom go, what are the odds of winning a bonus prize?  It's been awhile since I took statistics, so I'm not going to assume I'm correct.  

 

Posted (edited)

This seemed like something ai could do, and this is what it came up with 

image.thumb.png.25772cd48a03c6437e5d6a6a090853f3.png

I told it that each iteration has a 5% chance of success to simplify things, (5 out of 100) but in reality each unsuccessful iteration would drop the denominator by one and slightly increase the odds for that iteration, so the real value would be a litttle higher than 20%. 
 

and that’s for exactly one win in 5 events. There would also be some value for more than one win. 
 

so possibly 

Spoiler

image.gif.944674c857d083206a604367854a8db5.gif

 

Edited by Pato del Muerto
Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

This seemed like something ai could do, and this is what it came up with 

image.thumb.png.25772cd48a03c6437e5d6a6a090853f3.png

I told it that each iteration has a 5% chance of success to simplify things, (5 out of 100) but in reality each unsuccessful iteration would drop the denominator by one and slightly increase the odds for that iteration, so the real value would be a litttle higher than 20%. 
 

and that’s for a single win. 

Where are you getting 5%? It's 10 out of 100.

I came up with 41%. (Assuming they all have a 10% chance of winning)

Edited by ztejas
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, ztejas said:

Where are you getting 5%? It's 10 out of 100.

I came up with 41%. (Assuming they all have a 10% chance of winning)

Each “big prize” is 1 out of 100, and there would be 5 of them in the 100. Then 5 in 99. Then 5 in 98. 
 

though I stupidly said 5 tries instead of 10 because I had 5 on the brain, so changing to 10 tries it returns 40.1% chance of happening at least once. 

Edited by Pato del Muerto

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