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Opening coin toss -- Defer or take the ball?


Horndog

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2 hours ago, pacman said:

   doesn't always come to fruition, but a little better outcome than the D

TEAM W/BALL FIRST (2nd Half)              RESULT

1. Texas                                                          Punt

2. Texas                                                          Punt

3. Texas                                                          TD

4. Texas                                                          Punt

5. KSU                                                              TD

6. Texas                                                           TD

7. Baylor                                                          Punt

8. Texas                                                          Punt

9. Texas                                                           TO on Downs

10. Texas                                                         TD

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12 minutes ago, Lou Loomis said:

I'm honestly in the "Trust Herm" camp, too. I got to talk to him for half hour or so when he was still at Coog and he genuinely seems to be a believer in the process of building a championship program-- down to the smallest details. He had some line about everyone in the program-- even the ladies who wrap the rubber bands around your season tickets-- need to believe that everything they do, if they do it to the best of the ability, can culminate in a national championship.

The hydration stuff and his general stubbornness seem odd in some ways but I really think he's bought in to "The Process." It's been a fun ride so far. I think things will continue to improve.

Yea, once I put down the bottle and start thinking rationally (usually midweek or so), I appreciate more then I dislike about this team. We're definitely still in the middle of a roster and program rebuild. My guess was year 3 for fielding a competent offense. Anyone who tells you they knew Sam would play this well is being an Urban Meyer. 

Edited by totallynotabuttpirate
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40 minutes ago, OrangEngr said:

If we deferred, we get choice of direction. Probably chose to get wind in Q2

Pretty bold strategy, especially in Lubbock. I seem to remember Mackovic doing this one year out there and the Horns were buried before the end of the first quarter.

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50 minutes ago, OrangEngr said:

If we deferred, we get choice of direction. Probably chose to get wind in Q2

I would prefer that our DL not defer tackling the ball carrier  until he is already past the 1st down marker and into the 2nd level.

Just a little preference I have, not a guideline or even a rule....

Edited by El Squared
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8 hours ago, WBT said:

Do people really think it matters who has the ball first?  

I'd rather have the ball to start the 2nd half rather than starting the game. You have already seen how their defense is playing and what will and won't work for the game. But that is just my preference. Ever since playing Madden and NCAA growing up, I always deferred. I doubt there is a huge statistical advantage to winning the game when it comes to it, though. 

But if you start off on defense and can get a quick stop and get your offense good field position for its first drive, that is the most ideal situation. 

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I don't know, I kinda feel like he's earned some leeway to do something just to make a point. We all would've benched Sam after Maryland and prob last year too. He had a plan for the offense and it's coming together now.
On the off chance he has one for the defense, this would be part of it. I want to win right away too, but he might be looking at the bigger picture.  
I'm honestly in the "Trust Herm" camp, too. I got to talk to him for half hour or so when he was still at Coog and he genuinely seems to be a believer in the process of building a championship program-- down to the smallest details. He had some line about everyone in the program-- even the ladies who wrap the rubber bands around your season tickets-- need to believe that everything they do, if they do it to the best of the ability, can culminate in a national championship.
The hydration stuff and his general stubbornness seem odd in some ways but I really think he's bought in to "The Process." It's been a fun ride so far. I think things will continue to improve.
Yea, once I put down the bottle and start thinking rationally (usually midweek or so), I appreciate more then I dislike about this team. We're definitely still in the middle of a roster and program rebuild. My guess was year 3 for fielding a competent offense. Anyone who tells you they knew Sam would play this well is being an Urban Meyer. 
GODDAMNIT WHAT THE FUCK IS WRONG WITH Y'ALL? GET THE FUCK OUT OF HERE WITH THAT SHIT!!

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21 hours ago, Horndog said:

It seems that the accepted coaching wisdom  --  at least at Texas  -- is to defer if you win the opening coin toss.  I guess the theory is that it gives you the chance to have back-to-back possessions at the end of the first half and the start of the second.  But each possession should have the same value, no matter when they happen, with the exception of limited-time possessions at the end of a half.  If a team receives the opening kickoff, it is guaranteed an equal number of meaningful possessions during the game, and has a reasonable chance to get one more possession.  By deferring, you are limiting yourself to an equal number of possessions at best.   In games where the teams are relatively even, or where the teams both have good offenses, one extra possession may mean the difference in the game.  If a team has a very good defense, it makes sense to defer because there is a good chance to force a punt and get good field position for your first drive.  That doesn't really apply in the Big 12, and certainly not to Texas this year.  Here are the opening drives for our games this year (without actually knowing who won the toss):

 TEAM WITH BALL FIRST              RESULT

1. Maryland                                        TD

2. Tulsa                                               Int.

3. USC                                                TD

4. TCU                                                 FG

5. Texas (K St. game)                      Punt

6. OU                                                  TD

7. Texas (Baylor game)                   FG

8. Ok. St.                                            TD

9. WVa                                                FG

10. Tx. Tech                                       TD

So, in ten games, Texas has kicked off in 8 of them, resulting in 41 points, with only one stop.  Texas has received the kickoff in 2 games, resulting in 3 points.  Ok. St. had 13 possessions to our 12 (excluding a drive of about a minute to end the firs half), and we lost by 3 points.  In the WVa game, they had 10 possessions to our 9, again excluding possessions of a few seconds at the end of each half, and we lost by 1.  

This is magnified in the OU series.  Here are the opening drives in the last 10 games:

2009- OU     FG

2010- OU     TD

2011- OU     FG

2012- OU     TD

2013- TX     FG

2014- TX     FG

2015- OU     Punt

2016- OU     Missed FG

2017- TX     Punt

2018- OU     TD

OU has gotten the ball first 7 times; TX 3.  On those drives, OU has scored 5 times with a missed FG and one punt, for a total of 26 points.  (In 2012 the extra point was blocked.)  TX has 2 FG's and a punt on its game-opening drives.  

Are we slightly reducing our chances of winning by deferring on the coin toss?  We are almost always starting games behind after the opening drive.  And it is a reasonable argument that the losses to Ok. St. and WVa are attributable to having one less possession.

Nice research.  I trust our offense to score much more than our defense to stop the opponent and even though there wasn’t an even number of “chances” it’s obvious we are better taking the ball first. 

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I think it just depends on which side of the ball you believe in. If you're a ball control and type team and believe in your defense (which we obviously should not this year), you can make the other team take their first possession against a totally fresh defense primed to force a quick punt and start with good field position. And then you take your kickoff possession against an opposing defense that's already absorbed a first half worth of body blows in the run game. If you trust your offense more than your defense (which again, we certainly should this year), then maximizing your possessions and trying to strike early/often to make it so your opponent can't play conservative is a good idea. Or so it seems to me.

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21 hours ago, TrashMaster G said:

Our coaching staff is going with conventional wisdom and deferring when we win the toss.  And conventional wisdom is fine, in most cases.

When your defense consistently plays pee-wee level football to start games, you need to throw conventional wisdom out the window.  You need to be smarter than that and realize that anything you do to keep your offense on the field more is the right choice.

Conventional wisdom is to take the opening kickoff, especially when you have a good offense. You increase the odds that you will have one more possession per game than your opponent. Adverse weather conditions sometimes will make kicking off the preferred option. Heavy rain /  strong wind will increase the chance that you will hold your opponent on their first possession and get the ball at midfield.

In good weather, however, if you kick off and the opponent can muster one first down and maybe another 5 yards before punting, that puts him at the forty. A forty yard kick with no return puts you at your own 20. If they have a really good kicker, you can be stuck inside your own ten - a hell of a way to start your first drive. If you fuck it up, you can be handing it right back to them at midfield.

 

 

Edited by Irish Wrist Watch
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