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March Madness Seed Draft


BigOrange1

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yeah i think that was capn 2 years ago and he took a lot of the higher seeded teams.

last year all hell broke loose with layola chicago, florida state, kansas state and umbc getting big points.

 

Yeah, that was me. South Carolina was an 8/9 seed that scored a bunch of points for me. (I believe).

 

Edit: 7 seed

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Day 1 Preview (congrats to Bartles and Jack Straw on being guaranteed not to go pointless on the first day as they each have a game against themselves)

Listed in scheduled tip-off time order:

Team (Current Team Points, Team EV, Poster - Win Probability)

#10 Minnesota (0, 7.15, Huckleberry - 36.30%) vs. #7 Louisville (0, 12.93, BigOrange1 - 63.70%)
#14 Yale (0, 4.11, BigOrange1 - 17.41%) vs. #3 LSU (0, 7.88, Jack Straw - 82.59%)
#12 New Mexico St. (0, 6.44, Goo Punch - 26.41%) vs. #5 Auburn (0, 14.84, Huckleberry - 73.59%)
#13 Vermont (0, 3.78, Bartles - 17.11%) vs. #4 Florida St. (0, 11.57, Bartles - 82.89%)
#15 Bradley (0, 1.19, BigOrange1 - 5.74%) vs. #2 Michigan St. (0, 11.73, HornOnTheBayou - 94.26%)
#11 Belmont (0, 5.88, IPoopOnWhoop - 28.78%) vs. #6 Maryland (0, 13.20, Huckleberry - 71.22%)
#13 Northeastern (0, 3.61, Capn81 - 17.95%) vs. #4 Kansas (0, 10.74, HornOnTheBayou - 82.05%)
#12 Murray St. (0, 7.22, IPoopOnWhoop - 31.82%) vs. #5 Marquette (0, 9.81, Jack Straw - 68.18%)
#10 Florida (0, 11.80, Huckleberry - 47.60%) vs. #7 Nevada (0, 10.03, Jack Straw - 52.40%)
#15 Abilene Christian (0, 1.21, Huckleberry - 6.17%) vs. #2 Kentucky (0, 10.00, HornOnTheBayou - 93.83%)
#11 St. Mary's (0, 10.92, Goo Punch - 43.70%) vs. #6 Villanova (0, 8.76, BigOrange1 - 56.30%)
#16 Fairleigh Dickinson (0, 0.55, Goo Punch - 2.63%) vs. #1 Gonzaga (0, 7.99, IPoopOnWhoop - 97.37%)
#15 Montana (0, 2.00, Jack Straw - 9.30%) vs. #2 Michigan (0, 9.58, Bartles - 90.70%)
#10 Seton Hall (0, 8.81, BigOrange1 - 43.95%) vs. #7 Wofford (0, 9.15, HornOnTheBayou - 56.05%)
#14 Old Dominion (0, 2.28, Jack Straw - 10.48%) vs. #3 Purdue (0, 12.61, Jack Straw - 89.52%)
#9 Baylor (0, 7.74, IPoopOnWhoop - 46.16%) vs. #8 Syracuse (0, 8.83, BigOrange1 - 53.84%)
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Forgot how this deal makes you root against upsets, other than your own. Can't believe Minny was the last 7-10 team on the board in our draft. I was about to select but of course Huck took them with no other middle seeds remaining. No idea how they've played Mich St but at least they're familiar with them...could rack up 20 points on Saturday

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I think I'm good with a Bradley upset as it eliminates Izzo and makes it more likely Minnesota wins in the second round. But I need Maryland to get their shit together. Auburn could have really screwed me if they didn't get a bit lucky at the end after trying to hand the game to NMSU.

Update after the first 4 games:

Poster, Current Score, EV
Huckleberry, 15, 97.67
HornOnTheBayou, 0, 71.86
Jack Straw, 3, 60.46
Bartles, 4, 56.45
Goo Punch, 0, 54.96
IPoopOnWhoop, 0, 50.81
Capn81, 0, 45.96
BigOrange1, 0, 44.11
Edited by Huckleberry
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i took oregon with my first pick and then considered taking wisconsin with each of my next two picks, but i have no clue about the prevailing wisdom re: using two early kicks to select a first round matchup, so i passed on it. kinda regretting it now. what's the right move there?

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You'd be guaranteeing a loss with one of your prime picks. Only my second time doing this, but I don't think anyone has taken both sides of a matchup other than maybe 1-4 seeds against their much lower opponents. When you're picking 5 thru 12 seeds, you probably want all of them to have a shot to win at least one game. The 13-16s are such long shots it doesn't hurt much when they lose.

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Poster, Current Score, EV
Huckleberry, 31, 109.16
HornOnTheBayou, 15, 81.56
IPoopOnWhoop, 22, 70.02
Bartles, 6, 58.56
Goo Punch, 0, 43.60
Capn81, 0, 42.49
Jack Straw, 6, 36.95
BigOrange1, 6, 31.14

Not even close to over. I've led by more than this after the first day or two and never won. Even still possible for you to win but yeah you're in trouble. Might need one of LSU, Houston, and Purdue to win it all. Or else need two of them to make the Final Four probably.

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Forgot today's preview

 
#10 Iowa (0, 11.53, Huckleberry - 50.72%) vs. #7 Cincinnati (0, 7.39, Goo Punch - 49.28%)
#9 Oklahoma (0, 9.59, BigOrange1 - 54.65%) vs. #8 Mississippi (0, 6.01, IPoopOnWhoop - 45.35%)
#14 Northern Kentucky (0, 3.01, HornOnTheBayou - 12.89%) vs. #3 Texas Tech (0, 11.93, Capn81 - 87.11%)
#13 UC-Irvine (0, 4.97, Jack Straw - 25.35%) vs. #4 Kansas St. (0, 8.12, Bartles - 74.65%)
#15 Colgate (0, 1.36, Bartles - 6.35%) vs. #2 Tennessee (0, 10.00, Capn81 - 93.65%)
#16 Gardner-Webb (0, 0.26, IPoopOnWhoop - 1.25%) vs. #1 Virginia (0, 8.38, Huckleberry - 98.75%)
#11 Arizona St. (0, 8.35, Capn81 - 37.88%) vs. #6 Buffalo (0, 9.92, IPoopOnWhoop - 62.12%)
#12 Oregon (0, 10.92, Goo Punch - 35.02%) vs. #5 Wisconsin (0, 11.97, HornOnTheBayou - 64.98%)
#9 Washington (0, 6.81, IPoopOnWhoop - 47.29%) vs. #8 Utah St. (0, 7.37, Goo Punch - 52.71%)
#16 North Dakota St. (0, 0.30, Capn81 - 1.49%) vs. #1 Duke (0, 8.54, Capn81 - 98.51%)
#14 Georgia St. (0, 2.54, HornOnTheBayou - 12.35%) vs. #3 Houston (0, 9.51, Jack Straw - 87.65%)
#12 Liberty (0, 3.07, Capn81 - 17.81%) vs. #5 Mississippi St. (0, 11.12, Goo Punch - 82.19%)
#16 Iona (0, 0.29, Capn81 - 1.52%) vs. #1 North Carolina (0, 7.04, Bartles - 98.48%)
#9 Central Florida (0, 7.24, BigOrange1 - 48.89%) vs. #8 Virginia Commonwealth (0, 6.79, Goo Punch - 51.11%)
#11 Ohio St. (0, 11.69, Huckleberry - 39.98%) vs. #6 Iowa St. (0, 12.77, Bartles - 60.02%)
#13 Saint Louis (0, 3.66, Bartles - 16.78%) vs. #4 Virginia Tech (0, 12.41, HornOnTheBayou - 83.22%)
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In the middle of a TV session but I'm about to leave the office. Here is the update through the Virginia final:

Poster, Current Score, EV
Huckleberry, 42, 118.75
HornOnTheBayou, 15, 81.16
IPoopOnWhoop, 22, 62.90
Jack Straw, 19, 51.37
Bartles, 6, 48.82
Capn81, 5, 44.10
BigOrange1, 15, 38.92
Goo Punch, 0, 38.56
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And now we see why things weren't even close to over. We have a 12/13 second round matchup. Update through concluded games:

Poster, Current Score, EV
Huckleberry, 42, 119.16
IPoopOnWhoop, 28, 68.47
HornOnTheBayou, 15, 66.55
Goo Punch, 12, 63.20
Jack Straw, 19, 55.17
Bartles, 6, 48.77
BigOrange1, 15, 40.10
Capn81, 5, 35.83

Don't even need to worry about scores until after Sunday. Either Goo Punch or Jack Straw will move way up with the Oregon/UC-Irvine winner.

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Through the first round:

Poster, Current Score, EV
Huckleberry, 53, 135.16
IPoopOnWhoop, 37, 77.43
HornOnTheBayou, 19, 70.85
Jack Straw, 22, 58.53
BigOrange1, 24, 49.92
Capn81, 18, 47.43
Goo Punch, 12, 39.82
Bartles, 7, 32.20

Today's preview:

#6 Maryland (6, 17.25, Huckleberry - 48.91%) vs. #3 LSU (3, 8.76, Jack Straw - 51.09%)
#7 Wofford (7, 15.87, HornOnTheBayou - 31.70%) vs. #2 Kentucky (2, 10.47, HornOnTheBayou - 68.30%)
#10 Florida (10, 22.50, Huckleberry - 31.35%) vs. #2 Michigan (2, 10.37, Bartles - 68.65%)
#12 Murray St. (12, 22.21, IPoopOnWhoop - 29.82%) vs. #4 Florida St. (4, 14.89, Bartles - 70.18%)
#9 Baylor (9, 16.39, IPoopOnWhoop - 19.57%) vs. #1 Gonzaga (1, 8.49, IPoopOnWhoop - 80.43%)
#10 Minnesota (10, 18.99, Huckleberry - 23.70%) vs. #2 Michigan St. (2, 12.89, HornOnTheBayou - 76.30%)
#6 Villanova (6, 14.57, BigOrange1 - 35.45%) vs. #3 Purdue (3, 13.85, Jack Straw - 64.55%)
#5 Auburn (5, 18.28, Huckleberry - 52.72%) vs. #4 Kansas (4, 12.84, HornOnTheBayou - 47.28%)

Above is the issue with my position. Just like some previous years I had a huge first round but it's not hard to envision losing every second round game. Suddenly a total of 53 isn't very impressive.

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Through Saturday.

Poster, Current Score, EV
Huckleberry, 63, 111.91
Jack Straw, 34, 68.23
HornOnTheBayou, 27, 59.87
IPoopOnWhoop, 39, 59.68
Capn81, 18, 45.13
BigOrange1, 24, 40.64
Goo Punch, 12, 39.34
Bartles, 19, 38.58

Today's Matchups:

#10 Iowa (10, 21.59, Huckleberry - 31.73%) vs. #2 Tennessee (2, 9.44, Capn81 - 68.27%)
#9 Washington (9, 14.92, IPoopOnWhoop - 19.18%) vs. #1 North Carolina (1, 6.63, Bartles - 80.82%)
#9 Central Florida (9, 14.82, BigOrange1 - 17.52%) vs. #1 Duke (1, 8.03, Capn81 - 82.48%)
#6 Buffalo (6, 14.21, IPoopOnWhoop - 37.93%) vs. #3 Texas Tech (3, 11.72, Capn81 - 62.07%)
#12 Liberty (12, 15.94, Capn81 - 13.90%) vs. #4 Virginia Tech (4, 18.21, HornOnTheBayou - 86.10%)
#9 Oklahoma (9, 19.81, BigOrange1 - 23.16%) vs. #1 Virginia (1, 8.10, Huckleberry - 76.84%)
#11 Ohio St. (11, 26.23, Huckleberry - 37.92%) vs. #3 Houston (3, 11.40, Jack Straw - 62.08%)
#13 UC-Irvine (13, 23.57, Jack Straw - 33.47%) vs. #12 Oregon (12, 39.34, Goo Punch - 66.53%)
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I think Iowa's failure to close out the comeback may actually sink me. Now all I have left are Auburn, Ohio State, and Virginia. I don't see the first two winning their next games and I don't see Virginia winning it all so they only have 12 total points they would win from here on out if they don't.

Update through North Carolina's win:

Poster, Current Score, EV
Huckleberry, 63, 98.01
Jack Straw, 34, 66.81
HornOnTheBayou, 27, 59.61
IPoopOnWhoop, 39, 53.75
Capn81, 22, 48.53
BigOrange1, 24, 40.44
Bartles, 21, 39.88
Goo Punch, 12, 39.05
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I could have three teams in the Final Four and still be miles from winning this thing. You gotta get a 7 seed or higher correct, probably more than one of those in reality. Even the high seeds I liked ended up bombing out, so I was doomed before we even drafted

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At this point in the tournament I start posting a different update based on overall contest winning probability. Problem is it has to calculate all the possible permutations that are left (which is why I don't do it at the beginning of the tournament, of course). I'm trying to automate it right now so we'll see how long it takes.

Edited by Huckleberry
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Poster - Win Probability (# Paths)
Huckleberry - 50.97% (10,040)
Jack Straw - 15.33% (7,326)
HornOnTheBayou - 12.28% (4,015)
Goo Punch - 10.07% (7,415)
Capn81 - 7.10% (1,947)
Bartles - 2.84% (1,630)
Tie - 1.40% (395)
IPoopOnWhoop - 0.00% (0)
BigOrange1 - 0.00% (0)

It turns out that IPoopOnWhoop has also been eliminated. There are 32,768 possible conclusions to the tournament from here forward, note that the win probability above is not the percentage of those paths that lead to a poster's win, but rather the combined probability that one of his win paths happens.

As you can see, I am only a coin flip to win despite the most dominant position after the first weekend I can remember. I had an amazing four double digit seeds win their first game but all of them lost their second game.

Edited by Huckleberry
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To make it clear how volatile this contest is, and why it's awesome, here are two scenarios. Ignoring other games and focusing only on Virginia/Oregon, here are the updated contest win probabilities if Virginia wins:

Poster - Win Probability (# Paths)
Huckleberry - 59.95% (6,902)
Jack Straw - 14.26% (4,136)
HornOnTheBayou - 12.97% (2,562)
Capn81 - 7.02% (1,151)
Bartles - 2.92% (1,053)
Tie - 1.48% (320)
Goo Punch - 0.00% (0)
IPoopOnWhoop - 0.00% (0)
BigOrange1 - 0.00% (0)

Here they are if Oregon wins:

Poster - Win Probability (# Paths)
Goo Punch - 41.00% (7,286)
Huckleberry - 19.97% (3,024)
Jack Straw - 17.12% (2,992)
HornOnTheBayou - 9.85% (1,429)
Capn81 - 7.23% (788)
Bartles - 2.15% (528)
Tie - 1.14% (75)
IPoopOnWhoop - 0.00% (0)
BigOrange1 - 0.00% (0)
Edited by Huckleberry
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After Gonzaga win:

Poster - Win Probability (# Paths)
Huckleberry - 52.87% (5,231)
Jack Straw - 15.19% (3,692)
HornOnTheBayou - 11.87% (2,056)
Goo Punch - 10.03% (3,742)
Capn81 - 6.46% (991)
Tie - 1.23% (178)
Bartles - 0.17% (14)
IPoopOnWhoop - 0.00% (0)
BigOrange1 - 0.00% (0)
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Through Purdue win, which wasn't good for me because Jack Straw was the closest competitor beforehand:

Poster - Win Probability (# Paths)
Huckleberry - 49.74% (2,385)
Jack Straw - 26.24% (2,745)
HornOnTheBayou - 11.51% (977)
Goo Punch - 9.35% (1,840)
Capn81 - 1.98% (154)
Tie - 1.09% (88)
Bartles - 0.09% (3)
IPoopOnWhoop - 0.00% (0)
BigOrange1 - 0.00% (0)

And actual score update:

Poster, Current Score, EV
Huckleberry, 65, 84.08
Jack Straw, 49, 70.48
HornOnTheBayou, 35, 58.70
Goo Punch, 36, 50.04
IPoopOnWhoop, 42, 47.77
Capn81, 30, 43.71
Bartles, 21, 32.41
BigOrange1, 24, 24.00
Edited by Huckleberry
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Texas Tech's win eliminated Bartles.

Poster - Win Probability (# Paths)
Huckleberry - 48.36% (1,158)
Jack Straw - 25.63% (1,345)
HornOnTheBayou - 11.46% (483)
Goo Punch - 9.18% (913)
Capn81 - 4.28% (154)
Tie - 1.08% (43)
IPoopOnWhoop - 0.00% (0)
Bartles - 0.00% (0)
BigOrange1 - 0.00% (0)

 

Poster, Current Score, EV
Huckleberry, 65, 84.09
Jack Straw, 49, 70.50
HornOnTheBayou, 35, 58.75
Capn81, 39, 52.76
Goo Punch, 36, 50.04
IPoopOnWhoop, 42, 47.96
Bartles, 21, 25.91
BigOrange1, 24, 24.00
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Virginia's win eliminates Goo Punch.

Poster - Win Probability (# Paths)
Huckleberry - 57.64% (822)
Jack Straw - 24.03% (759)
HornOnTheBayou - 12.20% (315)
Capn81 - 4.72% (109)
Tie - 1.41% (43)
Goo Punch - 0.00% (0)
IPoopOnWhoop - 0.00% (0)
Bartles - 0.00% (0)
BigOrange1 - 0.00% (0)

 

Poster, Current Score, EV
Huckleberry, 68, 85.85
Jack Straw, 49, 68.86
HornOnTheBayou, 35, 58.60
Capn81, 39, 52.71
IPoopOnWhoop, 42, 47.93
Goo Punch, 36, 36.00
Bartles, 21, 25.82
BigOrange1, 24, 24.00
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Through Michigan State's win:

Poster - Win Probability (# Paths)
Huckleberry - 59.67% (458)
Jack Straw - 19.28% (262)
HornOnTheBayou - 14.85% (220)
Capn81 - 4.86% (63)
Tie - 1.34% (21)
Goo Punch - 0.00% (0)
IPoopOnWhoop - 0.00% (0)
Bartles - 0.00% (0)
BigOrange1 - 0.00% (0)

 

Poster, Current Score, EV
Huckleberry, 68, 85.84
Jack Straw, 49, 65.02
HornOnTheBayou, 41, 61.89
Capn81, 39, 52.23
IPoopOnWhoop, 42, 47.85
Goo Punch, 36, 36.00
Bartles, 21, 25.82
BigOrange1, 24, 24.00
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Through Auburn win:

Poster - Win Probability (# Paths)
Huckleberry - 77.76% (327)
Jack Straw - 11.38% (90)
HornOnTheBayou - 7.94% (70)
Tie - 1.92% (17)
Capn81 - 1.00% (8)
Goo Punch - 0.00% (0)
IPoopOnWhoop - 0.00% (0)
Bartles - 0.00% (0)
BigOrange1 - 0.00% (0)

 

Poster, Current Score, EV
Huckleberry, 83, 105.47
Jack Straw, 49, 66.07
HornOnTheBayou, 41, 62.50
Capn81, 39, 52.30
IPoopOnWhoop, 42, 47.89
Goo Punch, 36, 36.00
BigOrange1, 24, 24.00
Bartles, 21, 21.00
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Through Duke win:

Poster - Win Probability (# Paths)
Huckleberry - 81.97% (182)
Jack Straw - 11.53% (48)
HornOnTheBayou - 3.62% (12)
Tie - 1.66% (8)
Capn81 - 1.22% (6)
Goo Punch - 0.00% (0)
IPoopOnWhoop - 0.00% (0)
Bartles - 0.00% (0)
BigOrange1 - 0.00% (0)

 

Poster, Current Score, EV
Huckleberry, 83, 105.39
Jack Straw, 49, 66.02
HornOnTheBayou, 41, 55.16
Capn81, 42, 54.45
IPoopOnWhoop, 42, 47.74
Goo Punch, 36, 36.00
BigOrange1, 24, 24.00
Bartles, 21, 21.00
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Through the Sweet 16:

Poster - Win Probability (# Paths)
Huckleberry - 87.39% (102)
HornOnTheBayou - 6.51% (12)
Jack Straw - 3.80% (8)
Capn81 - 1.88% (5)
Tie - 0.42% (1)
Goo Punch - 0.00% (0)
IPoopOnWhoop - 0.00% (0)
Bartles - 0.00% (0)
BigOrange1 - 0.00% (0)

 

Poster, Current Score, EV
Huckleberry, 83, 104.52
HornOnTheBayou, 47, 61.23
Jack Straw, 49, 57.73
Capn81, 42, 54.43
IPoopOnWhoop, 42, 47.73
Goo Punch, 36, 36.00
BigOrange1, 24, 24.00
Bartles, 21, 21.00

 

The one possible remaining tie is between Capn81 and me at 87 points. It happens if the Final Four is Texas Tech beating Michigan St., Kentucky beating Virginia, then Tech beating Kentucky for the title.

Edited by Huckleberry
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Through Texas Tech win:

Poster - Win Probability (# Paths)
Huckleberry - 81.40% (48)
HornOnTheBayou - 7.79% (6)
Capn81 - 5.37% (5)
Jack Straw - 4.24% (4)
Tie - 1.19% (1)
Goo Punch - 0.00% (0)
IPoopOnWhoop - 0.00% (0)
Bartles - 0.00% (0)
BigOrange1 - 0.00% (0)

 

Poster, Current Score, EV
Huckleberry, 83, 104.87
Capn81, 54, 68.71
HornOnTheBayou, 47, 62.06
Jack Straw, 49, 57.88
IPoopOnWhoop, 42, 42.00
Goo Punch, 36, 36.00
BigOrange1, 24, 24.00
Bartles, 21, 21.00
Edited by Huckleberry
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Through Virginia win:

Poster - Win Probability (# Paths)
Huckleberry - 90.93% (28)
HornOnTheBayou - 4.95% (2)
Capn81 - 2.20% (1)
Tie - 1.92% (1)
Jack Straw - 0.00% (0)
Goo Punch - 0.00% (0)
IPoopOnWhoop - 0.00% (0)
Bartles - 0.00% (0)
BigOrange1 - 0.00% (0)

 

Poster, Current Score, EV
Huckleberry, 87, 107.56
Capn81, 54, 68.45
HornOnTheBayou, 47, 61.62
Jack Straw, 49, 49.00
IPoopOnWhoop, 42, 42.00
Goo Punch, 36, 36.00
BigOrange1, 24, 24.00
Bartles, 21, 21.00
Edited by Huckleberry
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Here are the 4 outcomes where I don't win it alone:

HornOnTheBayou wins if:

Kentucky beats Auburn
Michigan St. beats Duke
...
Kentucky beats Virginia
Michigan St. beats Texas Tech

He then wins regardless of whether Kentucky or Michigan State wins the national championship game (so this is two possible outcomes).

Capn81 wins if:

Kentucky beats Auburn
Duke beats Michigan St.
...
Kentucky beats Virginia
Texas Tech beats Duke
...
Texas Tech beats Kentucky for the national championship.

Tie between me and Capn81 if:

Kentucky beats Auburn
Michigan St. beats Duke
...
Kentucky beats Virginia
Texas Tech beats Michigan St.
...
Texas Tech beats Kentucky for the national championship.

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12 hours ago, Huckleberry said:

Wouldn't be hard at all. Just give me a list of team/entry names and who each team drafted. Setting up the spreadsheets in the first place was the hard part. Plugging in for a different contest should take 10 minutes tops.

Little late on this one, but still would be fun to see it. Today wiped some people out, but the three with a chance are:

 

J - 55 points, Tech, Michigan State

B - 61, Kentucky Auburn

G - 69 - nobody left

 

I'm guessing it's something like J 60%, B 35%, G 5%

 

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Here was our draft, just for shits and giggles:

 

B E BB J EE D J G
(5) Auburn (12) Murray State (2) Tennessee (6) Maryland (3) LSU (5) Wisconsin (6) Iowa State (6) Buffalo
(4) Va Tech (9) Washington (4) Kansas (6) Villanova (7) Louisville (3) Purdue (3) Texas Tech (12) Oregon
(7) Cincinnati (12) NM State (1) Duke (5) Marquette (5) Miss. State (11) St. Mary's (2) Mich State (3) Houston
(2) Kentucky (1) Virginia (8) Syracuse (7) Nevada (1) Gonzaga (4) Florida State (1) UNC (2) Michigan
(7) Wofford (4) Kansas State (9) UCF (10) Minnesota (10) Florida (9) Oklahoma (8) VCU (12) Liberty
(11) Arizona State (8) Mississippi (11) Belmont (9) Baylor (8) Utah State (11) Ohio State (10) Iowa (10) Seton Hall
(13) Vermont (13) St. Louis (13) UC Irvine (14) Yale (13) Northeastern (14) Georgia State (14) Old Dominion (14) Northern KY
(16) Gardner Webb (16) Fairleigh Dickinson (16) Iona (15) Colgate (15) Bradley (15) Abilene Christian (16) North Dakota State (15) Montana
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