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Pods

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  1. This is disinformation at this point GRHorn. We've known that variants reinfect previously infected patients conclusively for more than 7 months now. In October of 2020, 76% of residents in Amazonas province had covid antibodies. So did much of the surrounding area. They got fucking wrecked by Gamma. https://www.thelancet.com/article/S0140-6736(21)00183-5/fulltext As a pretend doctor, I assume you are familiar with the fact that The Lancet is a pretty good journal. Additionally, the alpha variant originated in the UK early on and there were very few previously infected patients to re-infect, so no shit the breakthrough infections in the UK were low. Delta is causing breakthrough infections all over the world. It's all over the news and this thread. You cannot have missed it. It is completely dishonest to parrot those talking points at this point. There is no such thing as herd immunity without vaccinations and boosters. Life finds a way.
  2. Israel data not looking so good today, now seeing a rise in hospitalizations after 11 days of being pretty flat. From 167 yesterday to 201 today. From 4 intubated to 22 in 24 hours. We don't know how many are vaccinated versus unvaccinated, they haven't released that info that I've seen since the 21st. If anyone does see that data, please post it. https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/coronavirus-in-israel-over-2000-test-positive-for-fifth-day-in-a-row-675485
  3. Israel now seeing a rise in hospitalizations after 11 days of being pretty flat. From 167 yesterday to 201 today. From 4 intubated to 22 in 24 hours. We don't know how many are vaccinated versus unvaccinated, they haven't released that info that I've seen since the 21st. https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/coronavirus-in-israel-over-2000-test-positive-for-fifth-day-in-a-row-675485
  4. That plus all the human anatomy and evolutionary biology training plus 7 years teaching medical school. The dinosaur stuff actually is pretty helpful too. Most scientists have the luxury of lots of data, we don't. Everything we do is based on interpreting trends from extremely fragmentary data and extrapolating that to something we can never observe directly. It's been very frustrating to watch public health and epidemiology officials that lack that skill set and experience entirely, move like dinosaurs themselves.
  5. I think it's likely. It's also a likely reason Moderna produced stronger side effects than Pfizer did for dose 2. I am totally pulling this next part out of my ass as a hunch and have no data either way-> I think there might be a temporary benefit there, but I'd be surprised if it lasted much longer. Maybe very short, maybe a couple weeks to a month max. <- I could be wrong on that, but I think it's probably right. The problem isn't the vaccines, it's the variants. The vaccine protects great at 6 months still versus the original wild type strain. That's why we're going to continue to need regular boosters.
  6. If you aren't vaccinated, please consider who you are listening to that has gotten you to this point. Virtually every person on this board with graduate level scientific or medical training is telling you the same thing. You see a lot of frustration in our responses, but that's because we actually do care whether you live, or die and we care about the people around you too. If you have good faith questions, ask them, get those concerns addressed and get vaccinated. If not, please shut the fuck up right now. A bunch of Americans are about to die because of disinformation, at least have the decency to keep your ignorance to yourself and don't try to get someone else on this board killed too. You have smart motherfuckers on this board who care about you that want you to live. Don't listen to Texags, please get vaccinated.
  7. Like @Anastasis said a few posts ago, I'm expecting to hear more breakthrough Moderna reports. Israel, Gibraltar and Malta used Pfizer and they are a fair bit ahead of us on the vaccination timeline. The working hypothesis is the effectiveness decays with time, so those places have had longer to show it. In addition to what ana mentioned, I think the Moderna second shot is approximately the same size as the first and the second Pfizer shot is reduced in volume considerably. That's one of the ideas for why the side effects of the second Moderna dose were worse on avg. That could also maybe explain a reduction in Pfizer slightly before Moderna, but I'm expecting we'll see the same results for Moderna in the not distant future. IMHO, Boosters at 6 months is going to be the future, unless they can get a vaccine that knocks out all coronaviruses. Given how readily variants re-infect older strains, there isn't any such thing as herd immunity without them. Mask up and keep your viral loads as low as you can while more data rolls in. Valved N95 masks are a huge improvement, even with a paper mask over it to filter your exhaust. Eye protection if you're indoors with recirculating air, or close proximity. Vitamin D and Zinc. The vaccines are at least greatly reducing severe infections and deaths, even past 6 months, though they allow infections to spread.
  8. Don't worry, the R-value drops substantially with effective test/trace programs, targeted shutdowns, universal mask wearing and avoiding crowded indoor conditions with people outside your immediate social bubble. Good thing nothing that would change any of those things is happening, or is about to happen, all across the country.
  9. The latter. Delta's R is between 5-8.
  10. You realize you are talking to pandemic's wrongest poster? Someone who completely lacks the introspection or shame to shut the fuck up after 18 months of spewing inane anti-science drivel that belongs on Texags? He's our board's Alex Berensen.
  11. Not that I've seen. Very few data points to go on, but everything I have seen said side effects no worse than second dose. Pfizer just released data and it looked pretty good. I'd personally be on the fence, but leaning towards it. If I was exposed to high viral loads frequently, I'd get a booster. If I was J&J only, I'd definitely do a booster. I'm not a doctor, so that's not medical advice etc., but my read on the data trends.
  12. Sorry man, that sucks. So many people are needlessly going to be put at risk to satisfy the desires of a fucking lunatic set on destroying the country. Probably a good idea for her to use eye protection too. There's been lots of minimization of aerosolized spread, but it's been one of the biggest issues the whole time, especially in those conditions. Glasses reduce eye touching and reduce aerosolized contact with the eyes. Doesn't have to be the big face shields, even non-prescription Zero magnification glasses from Walmart will help. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanmic/article/PIIS2666-5247(21)00040-9/fulltext Keep out of direct line from the AC ducts as best she can to reduce it further.
  13. Fortunately, the western vaccines do seem to be reducing severity and mortality past 6 months. Keep viral loads low and you'll almost certainly get through it. I would certainly be wearing an N95 if I was a teacher though, vaccinated or not. Schools are about to be a shit show.
  14. I've been reading a lot about Israel's outbreak, because they are ahead of us both in vaccinations and delta exposures. Some things of interest broken down by cases, hospitalization and long covid risk. 1) Cases- Israel is in exponential spread, 2000 cases a day 4 days in a row now, while the UK, Gibraltar and Malta all look to have peaked. Those data points are incongruous and I've been trying to rationalize them for a bit. Israel started vaccinations early, so that may be a factor as a lot of the infections anecdotally seem to be happening in people 4-6 months + from their vaccination. 2) Hospitalizations- The good news, so far the vaccines are squashing hospitalizations and deaths in Israel. They were at 143 hospitalizations on July 21 and are at 167 now. Hospitalizations trail by 2 weeks or so, so that's something to keep an eye on next week, but so far it's excellent news. 3) Long Covid Risks- Breakthrough cases can lead to long covid symptoms, 19% of breakthroughs still had symptoms at the 6-week mark in a recent Israeli study of healthcare workers. This study was healthcare workers, who are likely exposed to relatively high viral loads compared to the normal populations, but 85% of the cases were alpha variant and delta has a much higher viral load, so that may be a wash. https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2109072 If you are vaccinated, if you can, avoid crowds and keep your mask on. We're about to collect a shitload of real world data on delta and we'll know a lot more in a few weeks. If you aren't vaccinated, prepare your anus.
  15. Back to actual discussion. I've been reading a lot about Israel's outbreak, because they are ahead of us both in vaccinations and delta exposures. Some things of interest broken down by cases, hospitalization and long covid risk. 1) Cases- Israel is in exponential spread, 2000 cases a day 4 days in a row now, while the UK, Gibraltar and Malta all look to have peaked. Those data points are incongruous and I've been trying to rationalize them for a bit. Israel started vaccinations early, so that may be a factor as a lot of the infections anecdotally seem to be happening in people 4-6 months + from their vaccination. 2) Hospitalizations- The good news, so far the vaccines are squashing hospitalizations and deaths in Israel. They were at 143 hospitalizations on July 21 and are at 167 now. Hospitalizations trail by 2 weeks or so, so that's something to keep an eye on next week, but so far it's excellent news. 3) Long Covid Risks- Breakthrough cases can lead to long covid symptoms, 19% of breakthroughs still had symptoms at the 6-week mark in a recent Israeli study of healthcare workers. This study was healthcare workers, who are likely exposed to relatively high viral loads compared to the normal populations, but 85% of the cases were alpha variant and delta has a much higher viral load, so that may be a wash. https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2109072 If you are vaccinated, if you can, avoid crowds and keep your mask on. We're about to collect a shitload of real world data on delta and we'll know a lot more in a few weeks. If you aren't vaccinated, prepare your anus.
  16. He's a known commodity as a troll, so the donkey cigars account isn't valuable to him anymore. He's working his other sock accounts that will replace it and will be back with exactly the same tactics.
  17. If they bring the same bullshit disinformation and bad faith arguments, they'll get the same response.
  18. He knows all of that and is specifically saying it because he knows it will trigger people and derail the conversation. It's intentional, bad faith deflection to troll and derail a topic with literal life and death implications.
  19. Alabama is now up to a 21.5% positivity rate because of disinformation, liars and idiots. https://www.wsfa.com/2021/07/29/alabama-has-highest-covid-case-positivity-rate-us/
  20. He's been negged off this board before obviously, probably multiple times. Negging them off the board just lets them resurface under a new persona for a while, like GRUHorn keeps doing. Hell, donkey could well be GRUHorn, or someone else working with him. I don't know, or give a shit. Whether he's in an office in Macedonia, or a home office in Sugarland, the results are equally destructive for our country. It's the tactics we need to start shouting down in unison. Bad faith actors get dunked on, not seriously responded to.
  21. Thanks to trolls peddling bad faith disinformation over 600,000 Americans are dead. Family and friends of people on this board. A bunch more are about to die needlessly and these fuckers still think it's cute to try to use the same bullshit tactics.
  22. Anyone who attempts to engage Donkey Cigars knows exactly what you are getting in response, a bad faith deflection while people are fucking dying.
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