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Pods

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  1. Everyone recognizes what he is now and calls him out on the regular. He's clearly been committing Sepuku with his low effort posts. He wanted to get banned, because he has at least one other username already going. He's not leaving. This is what he does.
  2. At least under that username, he's recognizable. GRHorn is a dedicated troll and is already posting under at least one more handle.
  3. Israel early data was 64% against infection and 94% against severe infection. More recent data suggest both of those are too high, but they aren't reporting specifics. They are checking for statistical issues. It doesn't sound like good news. https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/health-ministry-fears-vaccine-s-effectiveness-against-delta-is-even-below-64-1.10011484 Data supposed to be released later this week.
  4. That isn't what you said and if it was, I wouldn't have disagreed with you. Delta and Delta+ are going to wreck shop on the unvaccinated, but immunized people are probably good. The vast majority of the people catching COVID right now are unvaccinated. We don't disagree. This is the post my post was in response to. This post is repeating incorrect conventional wisdom that mutations to the spike protein can't evolve without the virus losing the ability to infect people. It's not your fault, that's what everyone with any kind of official platform said for the first 6 months of the pandemic, but it's wrong and it was demonstrably wrong almost immediately. The first spike protein mutation, D614G, was observed in Feb 2020. It caused increased infectivity and evaded antibodies. Info on it started appearing in pre-prints by May 2020 and peer-reviewed journals over the summer, but the messaging was very slow to change. Yet one more in the countless pile of things the Trump admin fucked up. https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.29.069054v2 https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(20)30820-5?_returnURL=https%3A%2F%2Flinkinghub.elsevier.com%2Fretrieve%2Fpii%2FS0092867420308205%3Fshowall%3Dtrue It was always a flawed hypothesis, off by 180 degrees from reality, because if the spike protein is how the virus enters the cells, this area is actually under intense selection pressure, as we've seen direct evidence of from the variants. We now KNOW, not only that the spike protein can mutate, but that these mutations ARE causing increased infectivity and evading antibodies. We know these variants likely cause reinfection in patients that have already had COVID. The second link in my previous post showed almost every person catching COVID on the planet right now is catching one of the variant strains, with at least one significant mutation to the spike protein that both increases infectivity and evades anti-bodies. My first link in my previous post showed that some of the variants have multiple mutations to the spike protein that also increase infectivity and evade antibodies and are worse than the single mutation forms. Mutations are removed from a population by default. The null hypothesis going forward should be that if we see further mutations to the spike protein increasing in frequency in a population, the mutation is likely conferring an additional boost to infectivity and evasion of anti-bodies, because otherwise the new variant would be outcompeted by the old one.
  5. Well, the day he died would have been better, but we didn't know about it yet.
  6. This is what all the public health people said last year and was one of the main reasons they claimed we wouldn't get more severe variants. Unfortunately, they were wrong. Most of the WHO variants of concern have multiple mutations to the spike protein and this is how they are evading current vaccines in breakthrough cases. https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2021/06/23/science.abi6226.full Effect of natural mutations of SARS-CoV-2 on spike structure, conformation, and antigenicity SARS-CoV-2 variants with multiple spike mutations enable increased transmission and antibody resistance... Almost everyone on the planet catching COVID today is catching a more infectious form due to at least one mutation to the spike protein. It emerged a little over a year ago and is present in most of the other variant forms, which have stacked more spike mutations on top of it. https://www.lanl.gov/updates/sars-cov-2-variant.php Tracking SARS-CoV-2 Spike mutations A SARS-CoV-2 variant carrying the Spike protein amino acid change D614G has become the most prevalent form in the global pandemic. In this paper, the Los Alamos team and their colleagues provided evidence that particular SARS-CoV-2 mutation was associated with increased viral transmission and the spread of COVID-19, was more infectious in cell culture, and was associated with higher levels viral genetic material in the upper respiratory tract of infected individuals. The variant in question, D614G, makes a small but effective change in the virus’s ‘Spike’ protein, which the virus uses to enter human cells. There IS an upper bound on how much change can occur on the spike protein before it stops functioning, but data shows there's still plenty of room to accumulate some nasty combinations. This is where the mRNA booster vaccines will shine.
  7. My default this whole time has been to overly err on the side of caution. I'd rather be wrong by being careful than fuck around and find out. I would definitely not take a young baby around unvaccinated folks for any stretch of time especially indoors. The odds she would get sick and die are VERY low, but they aren't zero. My bigger concern would be consequences from possible long covid with regard to epigenetic effects during development. Again, low odds, but unknowable odds right now and that would be too much uncertainty for me to risk it. Problem is, they are handling this like a public relations crisis, as much as a public health one. Public health and epidemiologists have also been frustratingly slow and incorrect frequently during this. Reddit kicked their ass up and down if you could filter it out from the chaff. If there is a problem, official channels will be slow to identify and report it. So, we're erring on the side of abundant caution. My family is still masking indoors, but not outdoors, or at to-go windows. We visit with vaccinated friends unmasked.
  8. I'll second what Ana and The Dog said. That's absolutely what I would do if I was in your situation as well. Try to get an mRNA second shot and you'll be golden. The data I've seen on combination shots of any of the majors is really good.
  9. The anti-bodies last a long time and if everyone in the world was getting vaccinated with mRNA/Astra Zeneca in the immediate future, the current vaccines would get us through this. Pfizer (96% against severe disease) does well on Delta still. So does Astra Zeneca. Moderna likely does, but I've had a hard time finding actual data for it. However, billions of people are unvaccinated and the virus is continuing to evolve in a huge reservoir. Because it takes so long to kill people, there is no selection pressure to constrain the evolution. Natural Selection will continue to select for COVID that can escape current vaccines. The mRNA vaccines can be adapted to changing variants very quickly. Moderna and Pfizer can pump out a booster that handles new variants very quickly, but it's always going to be whack-a-mole until rich countries prioritize vaccinating billions in the rest of the world. We're likely looking at booster shots whenever the vaccine efficacy drops below some critical threshold against dominant variants, whatever the public health folks think that threshold should be.
  10. Exactly. The Constitution is a fucking piece of paper without humans backing it up. We assign it meaning, but that's your normalcy bias fucking with you if you think the GQP wouldn't wipe their ass with the Constitution to hold onto a single Senate seat.
  11. It's cool as shit, but it's universes away from an entire ancient advanced civilization that left no trace. Science denialism now has a significant body count. Anti-science asshole grifters like this dickbag contributed to that problem.
  12. WHO recommends fully vaccinated individuals wear masks. https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/25/delta-who-urges-fully-vaccinated-people-to-continue-to-wear-masks-as-variant-spreads.html Israel reinstates mask mandate after 10 days, cases quadrupled. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/25/israel-resumes-indoor-mask-requirement-after-rise-in-covid-cases Fucking sucks, but I'd be wearing a mask if you're around unvaccinated people for any length of time in enclosed spaces. The vaccines are still really good against severe cases. Keep any exposures down and you're probably fine from the currently existing variants. The shit currently percolating in the masses of unvaccinated is why we're going to eventually need boosters.
  13. Man, the Royal Navy is slipping. The rest of NATO needs to get their shit in gear, because Russia isn't done invading their neighbors.
  14. So what? These are Ukrainian territorial waters and Russia is illegally occupying them. Fuck Russia. The Brits should send a carrier group next time.
  15. If you are vaccinated, get ready for boosters. The mRNA vaccines are incredible and will save our asses. It's probably not a terrible idea to get an anti-body test. I've been thinking about it recently, because I didn't have a strong reaction to the vaccine either time. If you aren't vaccinated, do it now and keep your ass isolated and masked until full immunity. Delta and the coming variants are going to fucking wreck you. Even if you've already had COVID. Gamma and Delta both frequently infect people that have already had COVID.
  16. Yeah, basically natural selection is acting to maximize spread and spread rate. Whether more people die from it 6 weeks later is irrelevant, because the virus has already replicated countless times. I tend to anthropomorphize the explanations a bit, because it's an easier way to relate the topics to non-specialists, but there is definitely no sentience involved. There are several ways for changes to the genetic material to occur, mutation is the most commonly known. There's also genetic drift and a few others. Some really weird shit can happen when viruses jump species, but that's already taken place, so the dominant one here is mutation. One caveat, mutations are recessive traits, so they are selected against by default. The vast majority are immediately removed from the population and do not survive to a second generation. To anthropomorphize for a moment, think of a virus like a car. It's a machine that works pretty well as it is. If you open the hood of your car, grab a random wire and insert it into a different place, it almost always will make the car quit working. The odds that you would improve it are insanely low. Same thing with organisms and viruses, most changes to a functioning system are going to be bad. For that reason, they are selected against by default. This tells you when you see a mutation increasing in percentage in the population, that it is conferring an advantage to the organism, or the virus, and is being selected for by natural selection. Even rare events are common in really large populations, so we're seeing lots of genetic experimentation. Delta is some weird shit. Delta has changed symptoms, so it's not detected as quickly. The mild symptoms are more similar to a common cold, or allergies than before, so it's going to slip through the cracks and be harder to quash. Natural selection has selected for maximum spread and spreading in shorter intervals of contact. This is why we're seeing Delta in particular be much more transmissible in kids. I am speculating on this, but it's fairly basic first principles that Natural Selection will also cause increased asymptomatic spread. Delta is also crazy contagious for the unvaccinated. I read some reports this morning out of Sydney where contact tracing is suggesting infections after 5-10 seconds of shared contact passing each other in a mall.
  17. I don't know why the idea that COVID wasn't going to evolve to get more severe ever became the dominant thought among epidemiologists, but it violated basic evolutionary biology and it's fucking stupid. Viruses evolve to spread, so in a quickly lethal virus, it's in the viruses "best interests" to become less deadly. However, COVID develops and kills slowly. People don't usually die of COVID until 6+ weeks after exposure and they infect a shitload of people before then. There is literally no selection pressure on the virus not to become more severe, or more deadly, because it has already reproduced so many times by the time that happens. It's the exact same reason so much shit starts falling apart on the human body after age 40-45. Historically, we've already had all the kids we're going to by that age. Those kids have likely had kids and the genes are passed on already. Then the warranty expires.
  18. Tried to copy/paste earlier from WHO variants of concern page, but ended up having to reformat it. They are all worth keeping an eye on, but especially Zeta, Theta, Kappa and Gamma, because they are evolving in competition with Gamma in SA and Delta in India/SE Asia and showing they are relatively fit against it. Safe assumption they are going to be bad shit, because Delta and Gamma should be kicking their ass, but it's not happening. Epsilon B.1.427/B.1.429 First Detected- United States of America, March 2020 Designated variant of concern- 5-Mar-2021 Zeta P.2 First Detected -Brazil, April 2020 Designated variant of concern- 17-Mar-2021 Eta B.1.525 First Detected Multiple countries, Dec 2020 Designated variant of concern- 17-Mar-2021 Theta P.3 First Detected Philippines, Jan 2021 Designated variant of concern- 24-Mar-2021 Iota B.1.526 First Detected United States of America, Nov 2020 Designated variant of concern- 24-Mar-2021 Kappa B.1.617.1 First Detected- India, October 2020 Designated variant of concern- Apr-2021 Lambda C.37 First Detected- Peru, Dec-2020 Designated variant of concern- 14-Jun-2021
  19. Alpha = UK Variant Beta = South African Gamma = Brazilian = P.1 Delta = Indian (60% more transmissible than Alpha) Delta + = Evolved form of Delta, currently in low numbers that has an additional mutation, K417N that is also present in other variants. Lambda is the latest variant of concern. It's the Andean variant prevalent in Peru.
  20. The vaccinations make the symptoms less severe, but fully vaccinated people are still getting it. In rare cases, they are still dying. Looks like it's also possible to get Long Covid even if fully vaccinated. https://www.businessinsider.com/nurse-coronavirus-long-hauler-fully-vaccinated-breakthrough-infection-2021-6 A 33-year-old nurse got long COVID despite being fully vaccinated. Doctors think we may see more of these rare cases. If you do get exposed, keep your viral loads low. Delta is some nasty shit and outcompeting the wild type and variants quickly.
  21. Pods

    The Alamo

    Their weapon is surprise.
  22. Again we're crossing wires. Neanderthals do not in any way preclude such a civilization. Neither does any other fossil hominid, hominoid, or any other human ancestor. What likely precludes such a civilization is there isn't a single trace of the voluminous artifacts and buildings such a civilization would have created.
  23. Ugh, probably smart to keep the masks on if you're getting exposed multiple times a day. https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-50-of-delta-variant-cases-vaccinated-severe-2021-6 Israel says the Delta variant is infecting vaccinated people, representing as many as 50% of new cases. But they're less severe.
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