Jump to content

atomheartbevo

Certifiably Surly
  • Posts

    60252
  • Joined

  • Days Won

    153

Everything posted by atomheartbevo

  1. I trust them about as much as I trust an Israeli leader who very nearly lost power just a few weeks ago, and who desperately needs to get the Israeli people on his side. At the same time though, Iran saw what happened in 2003 with us ginning up bullshit WMDs to go after Iraq, and has probably pondered the thought that the West might turn its attention on them.
  2. Iraq in 2003 put Iran on notice. Even if we hit their main facilities and kill some scientists, they’ll just restart it elsewhere. Pakistan and North Korea used the same justification to create their programs (not the destruction of the West, but the preservation of their states). There is a survival mentality there that we don’t understand, because that’s 80 years ago for us. And let’s be clear here: this war was most likely started because Netanyahu’s government barely survived a no-confidence vote, so I’m a bit suspicious of anything being said by Israel and the US. Netanyahu needed a distraction and a win in the worst possible way. Edit: some idiot tried to compare this to Ukraine/Russia, which is a very black and white situation. This is all kinds of shades of gray - nobody publicly gave a shit about going to war against Iran two weeks ago, until they were told to care. Nothing changed in the past few weeks or months in regard to Iran’s program.
  3. As insular as they are, North Korea built a nuclear weapons program 30 years ago from 1970s Pakistani knowledge, and produced their own weapons 20 years ago. It’s 2025. Iran has access to tech that is decades ahead of what NK and Pakistan used. They have plenty of nuclear scientists, many trained in the West at top universities. It is arrogant and dangerous of us to think that bombing a few sites will destroy a program. They’ve had decades of preparing for the West possibly bombing them (our invasion of Iraq over dubious/ginned-up evidence informed them that they were on a timer).
  4. We did it in the 1940s from scratch with little computing power and no institutional knowledge. They have 80 years of a lot of public knowledge and decades of institutional knowledge to draw from, and computers and manufacturing capabilities that Oppenheimer could only dream of. I would be shocked if they didn’t have backup facilities and/or they didn’t move a lot of stuff around after the war with Israel started.
  5. He posted this last: @elonmusk Please reply to this post with divisive facts for @Grok training. By this I mean things that are politically incorrect, but nonetheless factually true. 1:38 PM · Jun 21, 2025 ·71.8M Views
  6. Thank you for your attention to this matter.
  7. My 12-year-old understands this better than you: In Ukraine, Russia is the aggressor. In Iran, Israel and now the US are the aggressors. So that's one difference. But here's the bigger difference: Iran can shut down 20% of the world's daily oil consumption. They produce a shitload of drones that would be going up against tankers that you can see for many miles coming, that are slow and can't maneuver worth shit and have no air defense (or sea defenses for that matter, Iran has sea drones as well).
  8. Putin might like higher oil prices. China definitely won't and who knows what they are doing, but I'm sure they are trying to cool things down through back-channels.
  9. All these people celebrating this didn't give two shits about Iran's nuclear capabilities two weeks ago. They only started caring because they were told to. Fingers crossed that this goes no farther (further!). And I'm hoping that influential people in the US will shut the fuck up about regime change, because if we make the Iranians think that we are going to make that happen, they have nothing to lose.
  10. The United States doesn't get to decide how things play out now - we just get to hope Iran does nothing. Because Iran could shut down the Strait of Hormuz, and they are better equipped and better trained than the Houthi. They could launch a bunch of missiles and drones at American bases across the Gulf, bases that do not have Israel's Iron Dome, and we better hope our AD folks are ready and have everything they need at all of those bases. We have American forces in a lot of bases around the Persian Gulf, and in many cases, it would be easy for the Iranian intelligence to have eyes on them, given their locations. Speaking of autonomous warfare, they could flood the Gulf with drones - regardless of how much Ukraine has been supplied with decent Western air defenses, Russia is still overwhelming/getting through them, and there's a fuckton of ships that pass through the Strait that don't have much more than AK's or PKMs to ward off pirates. And you can say "well not if the US Navy has anything to say about it" and yeah, what happens when the US Navy is operating in extremely close quarters in the area of the Strait, with lots of Iranian drones/missiles within range? We have the best fucking navy in the world and second place is not even close, but what happens when we get the 2025 version of the HMS Sheffield sunk or a USS Cole with a hole blown in the side? You think Trump can back down from that? Hell no, he will only escalate things, and boots on the ground would not be out of the question. And if you're Iran, you've probably already moved the good stuff out of Fordow and the other locations, to locations that have never seen an international inspection. I wouldn't be surprised if we bombed empty locations. And the Iranian leadership will have to respond - any major sign of weakness and the population could easily pop off. It may not be Pandor's Box, but we have no idea how this is going to play out, or how many Americans will end up dead or where our military involvement will stop. If Trump conveyed to the Iranians that this was a limited strike, that was an extremely dumbfuck thing to do, because you never tell your enemies where you plan on stopping. The Iranians could strike back at US forces and dare Trump to ramp things up knowing his base would not be pleased.
  11. Jimbo's ex-wife conveyed to the Florida State men's tennis team, and the Florida State wide receiver corps, through back-door channels, that things needed to be contained, or that no further marital seasons with Jimbo would be planned going forward.
  12. Or that this was kicked off in part because a bunch of Orthodox Jews were about to help boot Netanyahu's group out of power because they didn't want their sons drafted into the IDF.
  13. How the fuck did the Marines make email signatures out of crayons?
  14. Tom Anderson? Are you talking about Hank Hill?
  15. I would say destabilizing Iraq really fucked up the Middle East for quite a while and got a lot of American troops and even more civilians killed. There's that little ISIS group that some of us remember. Libya has been a complete shitshow since Gaddafi was Nowthis'd.
  16. We have been openly talking about regime change. The last three high-profile times it happened: Assad fled to Moscow Gaddafi ended up dead with literally red-hot pokers up his ass Saddam ended up being hung by people we turned against him In theory the rules of Iran have a much easier time of getting to Moscow, but don't think that #2 and #3 aren't in their minds - they have to use a lot of secret police to keep the civilians in check. We put their backs up against the wall, we don't know what they will do. Thank you for your attention to this matter.
  17. Nope. There isn't some kind of 10-run mercy rule where the umpires declare the game over and everybody goes home. It's only over when Iran decides it is.
  18. So then we are bombing tomorrow morning.
  19. It was some in-character shorts by the Daily Planet staff. Entertaining and good marketing..
  20. That’s not going to get good viewership numbers though. SAD! If they don’t use that ordnance, they may have to dump it in the ocean rather than trying to land with it and putting the wear and tear on the airframe, which is a lot of expensive toys wasted. My guess is they are either going to use it, or the aircraft are empty and they are putting misinformation/disinformation out there making it look like we will bomb.
×
×
  • Create New...