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berlinerbaer

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Everything posted by berlinerbaer

  1. Goddamn young people dicking around as always
  2. Something about the Itaewon neighborhood that tends to take the awareness out of people.
  3. USA: our elections are decided by razor thin margins! Brazil: Segure minha cerveja!
  4. PA over the summer was at 48 - 38 D with 15+ undecided. Now its more like 48 - 45 D with less than 10% undecided. Dems aren't getting hurt as much as Republican leaners are finally coming around to accepting their guy. That makes for a coin flip in the purple states and probably a close loss in the redder places like OH and NC, where it may have appeared that the Dem was doing well. It also suggests that the Dem strategy of promoting shit GOP candidates was working. Was being the key word. I'm cautiously optimistic with Fetterman because he is still above 50% in some recent polls. It's when both candidates are knotted up in the mid 40s when we are at the whim of late-breaking infrequent voters.
  5. I would LOVE to find out. If a Texas statewide race comes down to a few recently deceased voters, that means Dems are creaming the GOP elsewhere in the nation.
  6. Tammy Baldwin in one hand, Ron Johnson in the other. What a weird state. Such a dichotomy will only be trumped by Ohio if Vance wins.
  7. The RU Embassy in Berlin is massive. Putting that wreck in front of it will be quite the image.
  8. Have we lost interest in the running tally of KIA Russian officers? Last I saw it posted must have been 2 months ago by now.
  9. Coup in China? Quite the opposite. Xi is about to cement his rule for life.
  10. A democratic Iran, or any regime less hostile to the rest of the world, is an existential threat to the Saudis and most other ME countries. They will attempt to muck any transition up, or at least weaken any alternative nascent Iranian government as best they can. They do not want sanctions lifted and the global market flooded with Iranian oil, not when they have the world by the balls after Russia's screwup. The US needs to be ready to play diplomatic hardball with our so-called allies in the region who may have self-serving motives, but we need to show restraint. We have been terrible at picking winners and losers with regards to Iran since the 1950s. We should not get directly involved, but we have the authority to ensure other countries in the region keep their distance as well.
  11. Going by yard signs only, you'd think we were in the midst of a red wave in my neck of the woods. It seems the other evil Nehls twin is mounting a spirited challenge to KP George for Ft. Bend County judge.
  12. As a sparsely populated democracy stuck between two hegemonic dictatorships, that is as close to spewing hot fire as Mongolia will get.
  13. Quick question... where are you getting these numbers? I'm assuming they account for redistricting. I'm asking because 538, which puts the Dems odds of keeping the House at 30%, has NH-01 and NH-02 at 76% and 95% odds of going Dem, respectively. Those don't seem like even seats to me.
  14. It's astounding to me that Taiwan still has territory so close to the mainland. If China was even remotely capable of taking Taiwan, those islands would have been conquered long ago.
  15. Am I the only one who thinks it would be easier for UKR to push Russia out of Crimea than the East? If Kherson get's recaptured, then resupply of Crimea from the North gets much harder and then there's only the Kerch bridge to take out and the canal to dry up.
  16. My mind's kinda blown that anyone cares about Jon Wilner east of the Rockies.
  17. NSIAP, he just ended that state's investigation into the 2020 elections, hopefully crushing to the morale of the most MAGA Wisconsin voters. https://www.politico.com/news/2022/08/12/wisconsin-assembly-leader-axes-2020-election-investigation-00051512
  18. In all seriousness, Chinese like to poison each other. Even in the US, they aren't comfortable with firearms.
  19. Here is the article linked in the Ukraine thread a few days back. Looks like it'll be about 20,000 spread throughout Europe, bringing the total to 100,000, on rotation. Mea culpa. https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-nato-biden-madrid-jens-stoltenberg-de44b391b62aa3b9ccbd37ca12518f26
  20. I'm all for Sweden and Finland joining. That sounds like organic NATO expansion and a real boost in financial and combat capability. I'm also in favor of arming the Ukrainians with pretty much whatever they want. It's a bargain compared to sending our guys over there. Speaking of which... we are now sending tens of thousands of troops to Poland permanently? Fuck that. Is NATO stronger or not? Could we fuck up Russia already as is or not? Weren't our European allies going to double their defense budgets? If we were asked to contribute that many, we should have said no and if we decided without asking then fuck us. Fact is, this conflict seems like an escape from our very real domestic problems for too many politicians (both sides) and, by the looks of it, too many normally liberal posters on this board (myself included).
  21. It's raging through the young population. It ran through my whole family a week ago after my kids brought it home from daycare. Nothing major, but holy shit this thing is contagious. Good news is that like 80% of America has now been inoculated one way or the other. That's why hospitalizations are fairly low and deaths are way down compared to prior waves.
  22. Maybe. This seat is gerrymandered to be safe D and Vicente Gonzalez is a known commodity. Gonzalez' old seat next door (TX-15) is in real danger of flipping, however. It's one of the only competitive districts left in the state. The R candidate came within 4 points in 2020.
  23. All four of us are finally dealing with this. Vaxxed 6 yo son had it over the weekend and had a fever for 12 hours then a headache and chest pains the next day, then all good. 3 yo daughter got it Tuesday with a full blown fever for 24 hours, now lingering at 99 and feeling good. There has been an outbreak at daycare and here we are. That's when I knew I was fucked because there is no avoiding a 3 yo who insists on either climbing into your bed in the middle of the night or making you sleep upstairs with her. I tested positive this morning after being negative Tuesday night. Feels like a flu right now which isn't so bad. My wife has been complaining about her throat and headaches but she' doing the best out of all of us. We are both vaxxed and single-boosted. Time to hunker down for the weekend.
  24. A political position that singlehandedly sets the House agenda, determines when votes can occur, and staffs committees - the second most powerful position in US politics - is prone to backroom deals and special interest. Who knew? Pelosi is no worse than Paul Ryan or John Boehner were. The role essentially requires a giant sign hovering overhead with an arrow pointing down below big red letters saying "I like favors, and stock. Or cash will do."
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