7 weeks to go, key dates for things that could change the outcome:
9/17: Fed meets on Sep 17-18; their announcement about rate changes could have dramatic impact on the stock market and sentiment toward Harris.
9/20: Early voting begins; exit polling and other insights might start showing up.
10/1: VP debate; for now it looks quite likely that Walz/Harris will receive another bump, but a major snafu could erode their momentum.
10/4: Sept jobs report released
10/10: Sept inflation report released
11/5: Election Day
Unscheduled or unknown events that could change things:
Assassinations and assassination attempts
Health problems for either candidate or their running mates
Scandals (affairs, etc.)
Developments in Ukraine/Israel wars
Significant stories involving illegal immigrants
I think there’s more downside for Trump in the unknowns than for Harris. I think Trump is more likely to get killed, have healthy problems, or have a scandal. Harris is more vulnerable to negative outcomes related to stories on the economy, Ukraine/Israel, and immigration, but I think it’s limited. I don’t think the majority of Americans actually would prefer Trump to handle something like the aftermath of Putin firing off a nuke, or Iran escalating with the Israelies. Interestingly, it doesn’t look like the actual crimes that Trump has been indicted for are going to have any material impact on the election; that’s insane to me.