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Snake Diggity

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Everything posted by Snake Diggity

  1. 15 days away. My estimated odds of various outcomes: Harris >319 (I breathe a sigh of relief and unclench my butthole for the first time since 2015): 3% Harris 319 (Harris sweeps swing states, I beat off 3 times): 10% Harris 276-319 (Close but not terrifying victory, life goes on): 33% Harris 270-276 (nail biter likely marred by violence, life goes on, probably): 20% Trump 281 (Trump wins PA, AZ, NC, GA, we’re pretty fucked): 25% Trump 281-312 (Trump wins more swing states, we’re definitely fucked): 8% Trump >312 (I abandon my family to become a revolutionary soldier): 1%
  2. I fucked up. I meant to post that on the college thread.
  3. Who projects as our weekend starters? Looking over the roster the lineup should be stacked and pitching depth looks really good, but I can’t tell who we can count on to start the most important games.
  4. The money move would be to get one of Trumps kids to bail on him after November and endorse Haley as the new leader. I can’t imagine any other support making a dent in MAGA. But getting Ivanka or Don Jr. to publicly say “It’s over, dad” might matter to the Trumpers. Otherwise it’ll be more of the same until Trump is dead.
  5. Harris continues to hold the momentum with 18 days to go. There’s very little chance any economic news will come out that will reverse the momentum. The odds of a Trump health issue are far greater than the odds of a Harris health issue. The only things I can think of that will fuck this up are major geopolitical violence (Russia or Iran firing off a nuke, a terrorist attack in the US, anything that requires a large number of US boots on the ground) or some kind of crime/scandal (Harris infidelity, a sex tape, insider trading, etc.). It’s fucked up that the things we already know Trump has done (grifting, lying, defrauding, raping, cheating on his spouse) that didn’t impact his candidacy at all would totally sink Harris. But barring something catastrophic, to me there’s higher odds of a Harris landslide than a Trump victory of any kind.
  6. Who projects as our weekend starters? Looking over the roster the lineup should be stacked and pitching depth looks really good, but I can’t tell who we can count on to start the most important games.
  7. Dems best realistic hope other than a Tester miracle is Osborn winning NE; I don’t think he’ll caucus with the Dems but he will vote patriotically when it counts; he’d certainly vote to raise minimum wage and any other pro-union issue.
  8. Trump out there lookin like he might not even have the energy to incite another violent attempt to prevent the peaceful transfer of power.
  9. Yes, I know. There’s a shitload of reasons beyond my control that my kids are achieving at different levels; genetics, birth order, luck of other forms (it seems like my older one has gotten much better teachers than my younger one). But I am just terrified that if my kid gets a bad outcome that I will be left feeling like I didn’t do everything I could to prevent it. Im determined to leave it all on the court so to speak. Even though I know what I can actually control is very limited.
  10. I gotta brag on my oldest (9). Had parent teacher conferences this afternoon. Her teacher said “Your child is not only the brightest child I have ever taught, she is also the most well rounded. She is kind to others, funny, and the other children all look to her for how to behave. She is always the first to reach out to include a child who is being left out or comfort a child who is upset. And her standardized tests show she is a full 2 grade levels ahead.” It felt extremely good to hear something that validating. I feel a shitload of pressure to keep her on track to reach her potential and not fuck her up. Thats juxtaposed against my youngest (6), whose teacher said “your child is enormously cute and kind to others, but she is the most stubborn child I’ve ever taught (teacher only has taught 2 years). She almost never obeys instructions on the first try and despite testing well above average in both reading and math, acts as if she knows nothing about either when it’s time to do work in class. She seems impossible to motivate.” Which felt terrible because none of it was surprising to hear and I feel at least some of it can be traced back to my own parenting failures, mostly that we just haven’t given the younger one the amount of 1:1 attention and consistent discipline that we gave her older sister. I’m determine to do the work to course correct but it is going to be hard. This shit is hard and always such a mixed bag.
  11. I really have no strong predictions about the outcome of the election. But I KNOW 2 things: 1. Enthusiasm for Harris is higher than it was for Biden in 2020 or Clinton in 2016. 2. Enthusiasm for Trump is lower than it was in 2016 or 2020.
  12. Snake Diggity

    $120,000

    Don’t get me wrong, I’d be fuckin HYPE if I had 120k fall into my lap. But the main thing that strikes me is that a 6 figure windfall wouldn’t materially change my life. Wouldn’t add any major luxury or experience and wouldn’t change my retirement timeline/budget much if at all. Inflation and lifestyle creep are motherfuckers.
  13. Updated 183 report: on my drive from Austin to Port O’Connor there was a SHOCKING number of Harris/Walz signs/billboards in Victoria. There were, of course, a lot of Trump signs. But I would say in Victoria proper it was 4:1 Trump:Harris. In 2020 the number was easily 10x if not 100x; hell, I don’t remember seeing a Biden sign in that town 4 years ago. And the total number of Trump signs on that 150 mile stretch seems significantly lower than 4 years ago. Another encouraging sign was the number of clusters of signs in Lockhart, Luling, and Gonzales that had all local Republican candidates, but NO Trump signs. Only new cringe was a ranch outside Cuero that installed a flag pole near the highway with a 4’x6’ Trump flag.
  14. Why is PA polling so close? Scary shit.
  15. If you’re good with kids, Big Brothers Big Sisters is very rewarding. The kids in that program are awesome kids but have a life that will make you grateful. Being a CASA advocate is also very important, rewarding work (but I’ve heard it can be depressing). Any elementary school will have programs that will let you volunteer to help tutor kids, help teachers with administrative work, and any number of things, just call the school closest to your house. If you can cook, sign up to cook a meal at the Ronald McDonald House once a month. If you’re an animal person, call your local animal shelter. They could definitely use your help walking/training dogs and cleaning up after them, among other things. If you’re handy, Habitat for Humanity. If you’re into the outdoors, call your local Parks dept and I’m sure they’ll have something you can help with. I would also caution to temper expectations. If you’re depressed, volunteering can be a really good thing but it also might not help at all if the real problems are internal. But volunteering can definitely help you have a sense of purpose and gratitude, and those are really important for treating depression. My big 7 to pay attention to: sleep, diet, exercise, gratitude, purpose, companionship, joy, sunlight.
  16. Are you the Aggy? If the margin was 215k votes, one voter switching from Cruz to Allred makes the margin 2 less (plus 1 for Allred, minus 1 for Cruz); a voter switching from Cruz to staying home reduces the margin by 1 (minus 1 for Cruz, no difference for Allred). So in my hypothetical, where there’s a remaining difference of 150k, 50k switching parties reduces the difference by 100k. I pulled all the numbers out of my ass, but the math works (I think…I’m fuckin elderly and make mistakes).
  17. 7 swing states. Harris, Walz, Swift, Barack, Michelle, Springsteen, and Joe Biden. One of each should be in each state at all times between now and Election Day.
  18. No one I know who is planning on voting for Trump would change their vote if a recording of him saying the N word was released. It might energize Dem turnout but he’s not losing any votes saying the N word.
  19. King (2.39 era in Houston) and Ort (2.55 era in Houston) easily could have taken almost all of the 6th/7th innings that Espada used Abreu in that caused Abreu and Hader to go more than 1 inning and pitch so frequently. Neither of those guys is AAA trash.
  20. He was a $40M player this season. He will get well over $150M. My guess is he gets something like $180M/6yrs with bonuses or vesting years that take it to $200M. Theres always the chance his elbow or back or hammy tank his medicals or teams just don’t have the money. But I will be really surprised if he takes a long term deal with no opt outs for less than $170M.
  21. Take 2018 results. 215k difference. 65k Cruz voters died from old age and covid. 150k difference. 50k suburban 2018 Cruz women vote Allred because of Roe overturned. 50k difference. 25k new black voters turn out for Allred. 25k difference. 50k Beto latinos stay home. 75k difference. lol. 25k anti-Trump voters turn out for Allred. 50k difference. 25k new gen z voters turn out for Allred. 25k difference. Allred isn’t going to win. But there’s a version of this where the shit is really really fucking close.
  22. This is actually a key difference between long term and short term renters to consider. Long term renters shit and piss all over everything, short term renters jizz and vomit all over everything.
  23. If Bregman were willing to take $150M or less then he’d already have signed. He’s looking for $200M+ and I don’t know if he’ll get it or not but I will be very very surprised if he signs with Houston.
  24. I would bet money on any of these players being Houston’s 2025 opening day 3B before I’d bet on Bregman: Mauricio Dubon Jake Burger Shay Whitcomb Zach Dezenzo Donovan Solano Gio Urshela Jeimer Candelario Bregman had 7 years to work out a deal with Houston. He’s already posted a goodbye tweet and sold his house in Houston. He gone.
  25. Good point, underrated benefit of a deep lineup is more big leads and more flexibility in pitcher usage.
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