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horn4life
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Everything posted by horn4life
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So had to jump in a bit more. I don't see a damn thing that is going to really drive the markets upward. No more fake or real surprises to pretend the policy is not stupid. Again easy fucking money. Something tells me yesterday's most excited and newly prolific poster will not be back extolling his genius. Funny how most of the folks that go full CR are not usually giving any insight into what they invest in, or what they think they should invest in. NOW THAT would be of interest to me. For obvious short reasons. Hope you guys sold on the bounce! Got 10% of my $40K Unrealized gains I did not realize. But UVIX covered calls are silly returns.
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Well I was wrong, no creeping in of Trump policy into Jobless and inflation. Market should be surging on that news right...? 😉 So bought couple hundred shares of UVIX at $58.25... will sells calls on those sometime this AM. But gotta get my shit together to hit the road. No worries at all about a big upside any time soon
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Yeah- as I watched the Dow futures go from 300 up after hours to 650 down as there starts to go the manipulated rally. Could have just held and made back $10K before dawn. Alas poor stupid little me, only bought back in a little against the Trump Economy. Well we sort of have. meme economy now don't we? To match the meme administration. The good news is we are not going to see a 2000 point decline on top of where we were before Trump surrendered, this morning. And like I told the wife last night at dinner, I would gladly give up $40K of such easily found money to not have us push past a recession. I can make plenty of money in a decent economy, and those around me can prosper as well. ------------------------- THE BLOW BY BLOW But since I put my shit out there yesterday, I will give you a snapshot of me trying to get my unstopped shared out. I hit my six figs, and then it pulled back. The doubling of my PLTR puts had eroded to almost even, and I was talking to my buddy about dropping everything and going fishing. I opened my screen and went ahead and sold the PLTR, as I made a lot on it in the past, and seeing it start to move against me, I dumped it. I opened my screen and place a sell order for 500 shares of at I think 92? And made a drink, realized I needed to refill the hummingbird feeder. So put some water in a pan to heat it to mix in the sugar. Went to look at tides and winds for Port A, Go outside to grab feeder and my watch alert goes off, showing a move past $89 on UVIX. I go back to my screen, as I heard something about Bessent canceling a meeting,mI fast forward TV... Then things start to move , I jump to the open sell order, and I cannot get my open order to change the limit... Then it fucking freezes. So after a few more clicks and waiting get the Power Etrade screen open and finally get a limit sell executed. Whew! I am out with a stack of cash in the bank and some FOMO grief. As I see a blip flash in red reading $-107,000 on my screen in red, and it's gone. I start to panic, yelling," Fuck, fuck, fuck,! "Oh shit, I think I just lost it all!" My mind racing, I KNOW I fucking put in a limit and not market order. My fuck, fuck, fuck brings the wife out to see what is happening. Finally I get the slow ass view to come up and yes I did not hit MKT and the loss was only $40K and not all the profits and beyond. I guess the 500 shares that had stops, may have been selling at the same time as I was trying to sell the remaining up-stopped shares, caused the -107,000 to flash? I am upset but relieved. And wife is consoling, saying, "I don't know how you have been even doing this, it's all so stressful." and "You still made us so much money!" What a great fucking wife! She comes out about 15 minutes later to get some water and says, "What the fuck! What are you doing!" Standing over the stove the pot I was using to heat the hummingbird water is just pot starting to glow red. I grab the pot, wash it down with water as steam fills the room. Had I left, to run my now fishing focued errands I might have burnt the house down, or severely damaged it. So another crisis averted. ----------- Anyhow, while it's never fun to see $40K disappear, I was regularly seeing $40-50K swings daily on UVIX. So big swings were something I sort of got accustomed to, because days are like months. So end of the day I only booked $50K in 4.5 trading days, did not lose $107K, and did not burn my house down. Just thought you guys might have enjoyed the blow by blow... Hook'em and good luck to all of youQ
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Anyone down in Port A this weekend? Going to do a last second trip down tomorrow for some fishing and fun. Saw it was Shorty's B-day and Patrice Pike and her band were in playing a 4 pm show there Saturday. Probably coming off the beach around then, with I guess the local Psych band Triponite... but always love me some shortys.
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I think we have permanently damaged the reputation of the United States as a safe place to invest for international investors. I think the strength of the dollar has also eroded as a safe haven. I do not think interest rates are going to be falling anytime soon. Because we are going to have higher inflation. I said back when the President was elected that we would be very, very lucky if we got to 6.25% mortgage rates this Spring on the MMI. I felt we would be closer to 7% because of the inflationary pressures that tariffs cause. This is still the same case as it was in November. We are going to want to borrow a shit ton more money for the big beautiful budget bill and it's not going to be paid for. At the very best it will be "pretend paid for" with some accounting trickery. And we are going to have to pay a higher rate than necessary to fund that. We are not going to get a shit ton of foreign investment in the US because we are not as stable a place to do business as we were 10 days ago. There is a longer term cost to the level of stupidity and simply not accounting for the most obvious results of their policy. They really just did not anticipate the most likely scenario. To me that is fucking scary as shit, from the folks running the USA Corporation. Now it's just going to be more of a slow motion roll out of stupidity. And for me... that is sort of hard for me to bet on long at this point. I also think the only reason we are not staring at the cliff, is some fiscal conservative house member was not going to vote to add a shit ton of debt in this environment. So kick the can down the road, get out of the house, then back to math that simply does not add up.
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Ok had to rehshort PLTR... first little bite Some of the airlines went nuts, what do you guys think has over bumped?
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Tomorrow you are going to see the beginnings of Trumps actions in reports and today was the day to blink, because tomorrow might have been off the cliff. I also think it's hilarious as shit that folks actually think this was a plan. This was a lie to cover a mistake, nothing more nothing less. At least there is clarity and certainty this afternoon... Shit I want to reshort PLTR at $92
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So this was all a master plan.... I still gotta feel good about +60K in a week. You guys let me know when this secret plan gets everyone their 401K money back. Just another day of US Economy the game, Trump Addition. At least I bailed on the PLTR puts earlier in the day. Still not confident in coming back in.
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Well that was fucking expensive.... that's why they are called unrealized. Funny as fuck. I was about to just close it all out and go fishing with a buddy. That was a $40K haircut but out. I was completely wrong. Trump blinked. I thought it would take a lot more downside. My stops were loose but helped. Should have bought a flats boat...
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Tomorrow morning premarket is going to likely have some serious movement. CPI , Initial Jobless and Consumer confidence reports before market. I expect a negative upside to all. But what has me scratching my head is... will the market rally on bad news.. because Fed forced to the Rescue? What would spike the market honestly is an announcement from the White House that they had made a deal with somebody, anybody!
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Fed is going to have to step in. And that's when I start getting fucked. And that is why the market is getting a little bounce today I assume. And yes... bragging is almost an instantaneous reversal of fortune. Damn boomer post... But Trump just told folks to buy... signed the tweet DJT and DJT spikes... lemmings...
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PS sorry for bragging on my gains. The boomer comment set me off when so many of my friends are truly terrified about that the retirement they were planning in the next year or so, may not be possible. And that sucks in your 60's.
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Yeah - I'm 34% cash now. should be 40% by close Friday with no change. I told my wife this strategy was risky, but I also said this could be a life changing opportunity to make money. I must also point out I was $20K down on the sae holdings a month ago. SO yes super risky. I will likely look at doing what I was going to do yesterday and what has been my normal stock strategy, sell calls for half the shares after a steep run up. Probably will sell some 105/110/100 calls to cover up half the remaining shares. I tired to yesterday when UVIX was touching $100, but pull back dashed my plan in the last 4 minutes of the day. And yes these positions are fucking risky. But this is the risky account. Hell it's hard to sell shit that keeps putting up 4 and 5 digit wins. My hedge both on the way up and way down has been covered calls. That's how I grew the account to begin with trading a very volatile PLTR mostly. So risk is what it is. Yesterday was $24K down to $20K up. If for even a second I thought that Trump would be the one to reach out to China I would be a LOT more worried. But I think right now we are likely to see an ego standoff between Trump and Xi.... over who makes the fucking phone call... And do you see the architect of this amazing change for the world economy making that call? DO you? I put up a post a few pages back, that said it was going to take perhaps as much as a 10,000 points down for Trump to change course. Sadly I still believe this. The fake rally showed me there is still way too much hope. And I am big on betting against folks that believe stuff that is not true and invest emotionally because of that. I am going short only because Trump has been predictably stupid. Just trying to cash in betting against a really badly managed company right now.
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Looks like today is the day I go 6 figs on profit in 5 trading days betting against this predictable stupidity. Not bad for a stupid boomer talking ECO 101, on an account with a value of less than $200K. Of course it could all disappear as there is a reason why it says, "unrealized gains" on my screen. Mainly that fact the 401K has trimmed only around 3-4% as of yesterday off from the top, due to removing stock risk is sort of cool too. Eco 101 my friends, Eco 101... But yes a lot of my boomer friends are watching a lifetime of savings savaged.
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All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread
horn4life replied to UTPhil2006's topic in Business and Markets
I pray that you are not in a tent, next to motor home.... -
Well if you are 100% cash, sure. If you want to take a 20% down ride (maybe worse) hang on, do not sell. Just my advice, but right now ECO 101 Fucks!
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ECO 101 or ECO301 is fucking interesting as shit this year. You don't normally get to see moves that take months and years in a matter of days. But right now... everyone reading this thread NOT interested in very basic economics, should sell all their stocks and start learning. SOUNDS CRAZY doesn't it. But I feel very, very strongly I will be correct. Hell, I came back dinner and Bloomberg had the the front end of the Trump speech to the NRCC... like 20 minutes,Live and uninterrupted... As a person betting against the market I will sleep fantastically tonight.
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Originally UVIX was a hedge against my Palantir (PLTR) that I had ridden up. My "disciple" if there is any is buying almost every stock share the last two years as a covered call. UVIX I was just buying. I was down about $20K on my stake as PLTR started to pull back. Then I pushed most of those gains into UVIX. But it is so fucking risky I almost cannot tell you. But no. I am holding right now. But what I have tried to do on the volatile shit I have been trading the last 2 years. But as covered call. If stock spikes sell at least half with calls far enough out to both bank and maybe catch a pullback to have the shared close OTM. Then when it moves hard down, I buy in the money calls and some cheap OTM calls. But that's a longer term stock strategy. Right now I see the potential for insane parabolic VIX movement, (insert cloak room how dumb are we) and I am honestly concerned we may drift past recession. If I did NOT believe that I would not be holding. But for me the last great news was a falsehood, that our President might be reasonable... Think about that. That lie about reasonableness, made the market rise $2 trillion dollars. I texted everyone close to me, just sell everything now. Might as well save some of your gains. Or cut the losses that are just starting IMHO.
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I did not know what was going to happen with the administration. But I viewed the cabinet as one of the least qualified, and the President as being surrounded by folks who will only give praise. This is a bad combination for any company, even worse for a country. So I expected huge volatility. With volatility I felt like that was going to be an easy bet. Vix was 14 when I started accumulating UVIX at $36. I bought UVIX instead of moving into futures trading. I still think about the market rising before Trump's "reciprocal" tariff announcement... There is still a lot of hope... the fake new rally showed that. I guess ships will start accumulating off our ports now. As US companies deal with something costing 104% more than when it left port 3 weeks ago...
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Yep. jut got a flash of green on my UVIX and up 50% on my PLTR puts.
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O that fucking made me laugh! Why would China give in? Xi doesn't have to explain that he wiped out a big chunk of retirement savings? There is a SHIT TON of profit made by the US selling China goods. Enitre US businesses are based on doing almost only that. Should the disappear? For the greater good? If the administration thinks they can turn off the Chain Supply chain and not send the US to a deep recession, somebody has not done the math.
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Since this popped up while I was typiig -IF I agree with everything above. Do you think that not all of that could have been done without destroying consumer confidence and 401K's? There is a reason the markets did not price in any more than reciprocal tariffs! Because everyone was told that reciprocal tariffs was what was going to be announced last Wednesday. What was presented was not what was promised... along with clarity. But on point This is why I was asking the question about using all prior period of uncertainty models and extrapolating it into this market via the trading algorithms. i thought that might have been a big component of the flash run up on the "90 day suspension." But since I dared take a peek at PLTR on Monday AM thinking... maybe... I was fucking shocked to see it trading near $85 a few minutes ago. I was trading at $65 yesterday morning. I love the company long term, but WTF justified a 20% run up in two days on a stock with that multiple... unless blue skies ahead? SO I sold $90 puts for $6.60 expiring Friday. Short time frame so might just get washed out completely. But come on, 20% in 28 hours? I got to bet against that techie (that I love),
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Well I am down a small car one open. But was up a small SUV at one point yesterday and about to sell $20K in calls when the fake news came in yesterday. Those calls at UVIX April 17 $90 that were $19K are worth $5K today. Would have been nice to have had that sold call cushion. So a little bitter on the fake part, and the interesting timing. But That's a big swing in a day, that's for sure. Bigger for sure than I have ever fucked around with. And what I am doing right now is extremely risky. I thought about bailing, but think I have already taken the brunt of todays blow. But great for you guys!!! Glad ya'll are getting back some cash, even if I am bleeding. But I keep thinking about has driven this rally. A false report on pausing tariffs. And other countries calling the White House. A sprinkle of Iran nuclear talk fairy dust sprinkle as well. I know everyone is going to come to the table. But talking isn't a deal, any more than unrealized gains, are realized gains. I am afraid that this may be looked back at as a bounce that was a retail investor selling opportunity. Earnings forecasts will start to show a nibble of what's coming. Tariffs are inflationary. And if we don't have tariffs where is all the revenue going to come from? It's a catch 22. And eventually good old addition is going to tell the tale. My losses down to $20K, while typing and a phone call. So another day that feels like a month... I just have a hard time seeing a two day selloff being the only damage, even it it was trillions.
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Where on this chart are we? My guess is that rise up between Euphoria and Complacency? When CPI comes in just a little hotter than expected does market go up or down? What happens when the market sees unemployment numbers rising? Since my bet is volatility, all I know is a FALSE report sent the market soaring and a lot of those gains stuck. So was that a legitimate market rally? IS good news from a lie, the same as actual good news? That momentum based on a false report has carried though bigly into today's futures. Like rises, falls are not straight down, and as I said yesterday, there is clearly a shit ton of hope, (or market manipulation.) Regardless looks like a lot of folks are going risk off this morning. Half me wants to cash out. The other half says, a two day severe drop followed, by a minor drop buoyed by a false report, followed by "we're Back" optimism? That seems like a scary ass combination to bet on. Simply as we have not actually seen any of the tariff effects hit the market. BUT... I think the optimism is based on "Well folks are coming to the table to negotiate". which is honestly a good thing. But when you see the chart of "reciprocal tariffs" and look at that as a starting point of negotiation? Maybe that chart was complete and total bullshit. IF so negotiations should be pretty easy. IF the chart is actually what the administration wants, then good luck. As doesn't accurate math have to come into any negotiation about money at some point? Now had we started out this way, perhaps we wouldn't have needed a rally on false info yesterday. This would be both a thoughtful and reasonable way to try and team up against China. But... oh why even bother. I guess it's just hard for me to see reconfiguration of the entire trading system only resulting in two really bad days for the stock market,. Followed by all is well. Is it going to be that easy?
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Well thought I was gonna maybe have a red number today. But decay on the 50 and 65 covered calls swept in to make it a pretty darn fine day. This one was a nail biter for me. Up about at the close but on decay, and UVIX was green! by $0.15 - But now damnit with after hours down almost $4.60 so far after hours, looks like I may lose a couple grand on the day after all. Funny how a gain can turn to a loss while I am fucking typing. Right now I just really want to get to Friday and have all my ITM shit exercise and move to cash. So those are no longer "unrealized" profits.
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