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Everything posted by bolverk
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I'm not sure whether you read the NYTimes article link that was posted above bor what is being reported in other outlets, including cable news, so I'm posting a relevant passage from it where there'sa little more detail: Current and former military officials had cautioned before the strike that any effort to destroy the Fordo facility, which is buried more than 250 feet under a mountain, would probably require waves of airstrikes, with days or even weeks of pounding the same spots. American warplanes did hit the same spots at least twice on Saturday. B-2s dropped 12 GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator bombs β often referred to as βbunker bustersβ β on Fordo, and six aboveground entry craters are now visible, according to Brian Carter, the Middle East portfolio manager at the American Enterprise Institute. But many military bomb experts believed that more than one day of strikes would be needed to complete the job. I definitely recall reading last week that experts believed it would take several waves of bombings to get the job done. Hopefully, those assessments were wrong, but this maybe wasn't sufficient. Plus, if a lot of the stuff was moved, then well I don't know.
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Who to believe? A known drunkard who speaks in bold, absolutist language like this? βBased on everything we have seen β and Iβve seen it ALL β our bombing campaign OBLITERATED Iranβs ability to create nuclear weapons,β [Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth] said. βOur MASSIVE bombs hit EXACTLY THE RIGHT SPOT at each target and worked PERFECTLY.β Or these guys who are more cautious and careful with their language? Despite claims of the sitesβ obliteration by Mr. Trump and Mr. Hegseth, Gen. Dan Caine, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, has been more careful in describing the attackβs effects. βThis operation was designed to severely degrade Iranβs nuclear weapons infrastructure,β General Caine said that at the Sunday news conference. The final battle damage assessment for the military operation against Iran, General Caine said on Sunday, standing next to Mr. Hegseth, was still to come. He said the initial assessment showed that all three sites βsustained severe damage and destruction.β General Caine added that it was βway too earlyβ to assess how much of Iranβs nuclear program remained. Gen. Joseph L. Votel, the former commander of Central Command, said in an interview, that he had βa lot of confidence in the weapons systems used.β But he added: βIβm not surprised that elements survived. Thatβs why you do battle damage assessments, because everything can go as planned but there are still other factors.β
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I regret to inform you guys, but Big Ballz has been neutered and is no longer working for the federal government. https://www.wired.com/story/big-balls-coristine-doge-resigned-us-government/
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I watched the first couple of episodes this weekend. I wasn't sold on it at the end of the second episode because it felt a little too much like a soap opera, and I've got a bunch of other shows on my list. Ping me if you still like it after the fourth one, and I'll pick it back up.
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https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/early-us-intel-assessment-suggests-strikes-iran-did-not-destroy-nuclear-sites-2025-06-24/ WASHINGTON, June 24 (Reuters) - An early U.S. intelligence assessment indicated that the U.S. military strikes on three of Iran's nuclear facilities last week did not destroy the core components of Tehran's nuclear program and likely only set it back by months, CNN reported on Tuesday, citing three people briefed on it. "This alleged assessment is flat-out wrong," CNN quoted White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt as saying.
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Genocide is genocide, no matter the ethnicity of its victims. By posting that reply, he proves he's the type of guy who -- had he been raised in early 20th-century Germany -- would've totally been on board with gassing Jews. Total sociopath, bereft of morals, and deserving of damnation. Also, dumber than a bag of hammers.
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Wordle 1,466 3/6 β¬π©β¬π©π© β¬π©β¬π©π© π©π©π©π©π© Connections Puzzle #744 π¦π¦π¦π¦ π©π©π©π© πͺπͺπͺπͺ π¨π¨π¨π¨ π Daily Quordle 1247 4οΈβ£5οΈβ£ 7οΈβ£6οΈβ£ m-w.com/games/quordle/ β¬β¬π©β¬β¬ π©β¬β¬π©β¬ β¬π¨β¬β¬β¬ β¬β¬β¬β¬β¬ β¬π©π¨β¬β¬ β¬π¨β¬β¬β¬ π©π©π©π©π© π¨π¨β¬β¬β¬ β¬β¬β¬β¬β¬ π©π©π©π©π© β¬β¬π¨π¨β¬ β¬β¬π©β¬β¬ β¬π¨β¬β¬β¬ π¨π©β¬β¬β¬ β¬β¬β¬β¬β¬ β¬β¬β¬β¬β¬ β¬β¬π¨π¨β¬ β¬β¬π©π¨β¬ β¬β¬β¬π¨β¬ β¬β¬β¬β¬β¬ β¬π¨π¨β¬β¬ π©π©π©π©π© π©π©π©π©π© β¬β¬β¬β¬β¬
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You've got a simpleton's understanding of the cultural and archeological history of the Levant. Tell me how I can explain it to you without using a lot words, a complaint you've frequently used in the past about lengthy posts providing educational content. In the meantime, I'll eagerly anticipate your response until checking back in after a rewatch of 'Spaceballs.'
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Abraham would be proud, I'm sure.
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Ain't that the shit. We've got a bunch of Christian extremists supporting a bunch of Jewish extremists because the Christian extremists want to accelerate the end of the world while the Jewish extremists believe that their sky daddy gave them some special dirt along with permission to kill everyone who's already living on that dirt. Meanwhile, we got a bunch of Muslim extremists pissed off at the Jewish extremists because some magic man floated up to a sky paradise from that piece of dirt, plus, they were already there. This, and an unquenchable thirst for oil, is what's driving our foreign policy for a big ol' chunk of this little blue dot we all have to share. Lovely.
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The Ten Commandments - coming to a Texas classroom near you!
bolverk replied to Captainant's topic in Daily Texan
Is there any factual basis for this statement, particularly the judicial part? Because it's my understanding most of the legal framework of the Western legal tradition was built on a foundation laid out by the Roman Empire. Moreover, the Ten Commandments were largely derived from Assyrian oral traditions and the Code of Hammurabi. What makes the Ten Commandments a little innovative is that it simplified a bunch of shit into for rules. What I think would be okay with everyone is just posting the Golden Rule because, you know, it boils downs to a single, easy-to-learn concept: "Don't be a dick." That's kind of universal truth among just about every religious or secular group. Plus, it comes fully endorsed by the Geezus. You know what's really ironic, though, is that forcing the Ten Commandments to be posted in every classroom is totally a dick move. -
You, sir, can go shove a buncha coal up your choo-choo trains caboose.
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https://www.nytimes.com/live/2025/06/22/world/israel-iran-us-trump#iran-fordo-nuclear-damaged-not-destroyed The Israel-Iran war that broke out over the past week has already upended life for Iranβs 90 million people, killing more than 400 and injuring more than 3,000, according to the countryβs Health Ministry. Countless others have fled to safety in the countryside or neighboring states. Now, after a direct American attack on three of Iranβs nuclear facilities, many Iranians said in phone interviews that they faced an uncertain and frightening future. βWeβre all in shock β none of us expected that, within six or seven days, weβd reach this point,β said Peyman, a 44-year-old business executive who asked that his last name not be used because of concern over reprisals from the authorities. After Israel launched its military assault last week a missile hit nearby on his commute to work, and he decided to escape Tehran. Now his immediate family, parents, in-laws and brotherβs family are all sheltering in one house in northern Iran. His primary concern is for his 9-year-old daughter. βI grew up in war, so the sound of bombardment doesnβt scare me, but I left because of my daughter,β he said. βI fear soon weβre going to have a shortage of water and food.β Iranians awoke to the news of the American attack on Sunday feeling a combination of sorrow and anger. βI really hope thereβs a cease-fire, because this is not OK,β said Dr. Parsa Mehdipour, 29, a general practitioner in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, who flew home to Tehran for a visit in late May and has been trapped there since the war began and flights into and out of Iran were suspended. Dr. Mehdipour said he had no idea how he would get back to Dubai. His options include traveling by road and then taking a ship across the Persian Gulf or crossing into a neighboring country where he can catch a flight. βThese tensions will cause a lot of problems for civilians,β he said. βThis is honestly a breach of international law,β he said, adding that attacking nuclear facilities βcould have catastrophic consequences for the people.β One 44-year-old mother of two, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to protect her family from reprisals, described how she and her children left everything behind after Israel began its military campaign and an Iranian authorities issued an evacuation order for her neighborhood in Tehran. They packed a few small bags, locked the door and left, traveling on a pothole-filled road to the border and crossing into Armenia, where they have been staying in hotels. By day, her sons live a normal life. But as night falls their crying and nightmares begin, and they awake at the slightest sound, she said. When she mentioned that they were on a vacation, her 7-year-old son corrected her, saying that he knew that they had escaped from a war. The woman said that leaving Iran was the worst feeling, but that she had lived through the Iran-Iraq war and did not want her children to experience the same trauma. She does not care about the nuclear sites, she said, but feels sad for regular Iranians who are stuck between two fronts: their own government, and the countries attacking them. Since the Israeli attacks, which appeared to have involved intelligence breaches deep inside Iranβs government, Iranian news media have reported that officials have cracked down on people they accuse of being βcollaboratorsβ with Israel. Iranian authorities arrested 53 people who they said were linked to Israel and charged them with disturbing public opinion, possessing and operating drones, filming sensitive locations and sending that footage to βhostile media outlets,β Fars, an Iranian news agency affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, reported on Sunday. Iranian authorities also arrested a European citizen accused of espionage in the western province of Kermanshah, the Tasnim news agency, which is closely affiliated with the government, reported on Sunday. The report did not say what country the person was from. The New York Times was not able to independently verify the Iranian news media reports. Peyman, the executive, said that he was no fan of President Trump or Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel β βnot at allβ β but that he nonetheless found himself blaming his own government for the war and its heavy toll. βThe feeling I have is a feeling of 40 years of hatred toward this foolish government,β he said, lamenting the money that had been spent to develop Fordo, a uranium enrichment site that the United States targeted. βAll these years of slogans and chest beating, saying we have a strong defense system and that no enemy could ever attack our soil.β βThatβs not even counting how much the value of our currency has dropped, how much of our human capital has fled the country, how much chaos has been created,β he added. βThe psychological, financial and cultural toll on the country is immense.β
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Satellite photo of the damage. Zoom in and you can see what looks like five holes in the top of the mountain with grey dust spread all over. Embiggened view spoilered https://www.nytimes.com/live/2025/06/22/world/israel-iran-us-trump#iran-fordo-nuclear-damaged-not-destroyed After overnight strikes on Iran, President Trump on Sunday declared the operation a βsuccess,β and said that Iranβs nuclear enrichment facilities were βcompletely and totally obliterated.β But his early public pronouncements contrast with more cautious assessments by the U.S. and Israeli militaries. The Israeli military, in an initial analysis, believes the heavily fortified nuclear site at Fordo has sustained serious damage from the American strike on Sunday, but has not been completely destroyed, according to two Israeli officials with knowledge of the matter. The officials also said it appeared Iran had moved equipment, including uranium, from the site. A senior U.S. official similarly acknowledged that the American strike on the Fordo site did not destroy the heavily fortified facility but said the strike had severely damaged it, taking it βoff the table.β The person noted that even 12 bunker-busting bombs could not destroy the site. The damage assessments by Israel and the United States are ongoing, and they have not made any final conclusions. The officials spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss intelligence matters. In its overnight strikes, the United States took aim at three nuclear sites, including dropping 30,000 pound, bunker-busting bombs on Fordo, Iranβs most critical site. In a briefing Sunday morning, top Pentagon officials echoed President Trumpβs claims of success, while also saying the final assessment would take time. Gen. Dan Caine, the new chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said that the initial assessment indicated that all three sites sustained βsevere damage and destruction,β but added that it was too soon to say whether Iran retained some nuclear capability. The Iranian foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, said at a news conference that the country was βcalculating the damagesβ from the strike. The initial assessment by the Israelis was based on Israeli satellite imagery and additional aerial photography conducted over the site, as well as Israeli intelligence monitoring of Fordo, according to the Israeli officials. New satellite imagery taken shortly after the U.S. strikes on the Fordo nuclear site indicated damage and likely entry holes from the American bombs. The imagery, captured by Planet Labs, shows changes in the groundβs appearance and dust near the likely strike locations. The Israelis, in their assessment, are also looking at satellite imagery from a few days before the U.S. strikes. They believe the images show the Iranians moving uranium and equipment from the Fordo facility. Satellite images released by Maxar Technologies from around the time show 16 cargo trucks positioned near an entrance. An analysis by the Open Source Centre in London suggested that Iran may have been preparing the site for a strike. It is unclear exactly what, if anything, was removed from the facility. Mick Mulroy, a former Pentagon official in the first Trump administration and a former C.I.A. officer, said of the strike: βWith the type and amount of munitions used, it will likely set back the Iranian nuclear weapon program two to five years.β βA full battle damage assessment will be conducted in the coming days to determine that more accurately,β he added.
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Friendly reminder, you falsely accused me of being racist because I raised concerns about how toppling the current Iranian regime can have any number of unintended negative consequences, because the situation is so complex and may not work according to plan (if there even is one). Hopefully, it does all work out, but drawing the simplistic conclusion that I'm a racist for discussing potential blowback does nothing to elevate the debate.
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We've had a long back-and-forth argument on the topic over in DT with, as I'm sure you can imagine, many arguing all the various risk factors of toppling the regime (e.g., internal power struggles between the mullahs, the IRGC, the "street," breakaway regions, various ethnic groups, etc.) being reminded by one side of the debate, and the other side calling them racist for not believing that Iranians are capabable of handling their internal business. Of course, the Kassandras amongst us were not suggesting that Iranians aren't capable, but that shit has a tendency to spin out of control in power vacuums, regardless of ethnicity. It's basically the same belief as was held going into Iraq that we'll be "greeted with flowers", but this time we might not even be present for the fireworks show -- just watching from afar as Iranian society collapses. Obviously, there's no guarantee that any specific result occurs, no matter how desirable or destructive, but weighing the potential risk factors is apparently a real no-no. For my part, I hope it works out fine, but I do have strong doubts, given all the players involved in Iran, Israel, the US, and elsewhere.
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That's a question I keep asking myself. What are Bibi's next moves? He hasn't been shy since the outset about his desire to see regime change in Iran. Hell, the Israeli operation was code-named 'Rising Lion,' which seems to allude to the old Iranian flag of the Shah. So, is he dead set on continuing to bomb Iran in the hope of toppling the regime, or does Israel just continue with tit-for-tat shit until one of them gets tired?
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As someone with no special insight, I tend to agree that their days seem numbered. It really depends, I think, on whether anyone with influence remains in leadership in the IGRC. If not, then they might hang with the mullahs. Either way, they're really more of an occupying power than an offensive military. That's why they work through proxies throughout the region. In other words, my impression is that their job is oppression. So, then what do the people do? Urban, secular, pro-Western moderates would either want democracy or just some sane stability, opening to a compromise with any potential strongman (see inka's post above). Then, you've got the crazy religious people, who might be even worse than the mullahs. Do they capture the hearts of the rural, religious rubes? Of course, there's also many ethnic minority groups: Baluchis, Azeris, Turks, Kurds, etc. who might want to break away. No fucking idea what's going to happen beyond more rockets being fired into Israel.
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I think this is right. Hamas is decimated; Hezbollah is neutered; the Houthis are toothless; and Russia's a bit tied up at the moment. Ain't no way China will stick their necks out on this, plus as has been mentioned, they just want the oil to keep flowing. They would probably be perfectly happy with whichever IRGC strongman is still left to take over. I can't imagine they'd want to see a big civil war in Iran that might disrupt that flow, so it'll be interesting if they stay on the sidelines and hope for the best like the rest of us.
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Great fucking post! I'm only quoting this part to avoid longcatting, but I was watching a bit of BBC earlier, and Iran had said earlier they'd moved all their material out of those sites as part of a statement that there was no danger of radioactive fallout. No telling where all that shit went, or will go, or eventually into whose hands should the Regime collapse. Not just CNN, they reported the same on BBC. If the mullahs are gone, the IGRC will fight to stay in power. Are those guys secular or true believers, and wouldn't they also develop a bomb, too? Genuine questions, as I'm wholly ignorant on the matter.
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Could you copy/paste the text, please? I won't click on a website owned by someone who supports an antisemitic party in Germany and who also willfully reinstated several antisemitic accounts on his website. Thank you.
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