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Captainant

Certifiably Surly
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Everything posted by Captainant

  1. Historically speaking, failure to prosecute a fascist insurrection attempt all but guarantees that they'll return and gain power and never let it go again until many many people have died. I've been posting about it for the better part of five years now and people have finally stopped telling me I'm being alarmist or that I'm suffering from """TDS""". The craziest thing is that this is just the president following through with what he said he was going to do. "Freedom cities" is from 2023! Project 2025 has been pretty much pitch-perfect execution so far.
  2. Fully one third of the market is AI and AI vibe trades. It's wild. The music is gonna stop at some point, and then that economic calamity will be the impetus for the fascist crackdown. Like it's been speculated around here, trump the innovator is DIY'ing his economic collapse that most fascist movements pivot upon
  3. I'm curious, how much of Manafort and Yanukovich is in the book? Or does it end before Euromaidan?
  4. Much of the weeping and gnashing of teeth over bail is because we haven't expanded courts at all in Texas for decades despite the population doubling. Because of the right to a speedy trial, if they can't indict a person and bring them to trial then they kind of have no other choice. But nobody wants to pay for judicial benches and courts - just abandoned sections of border wall and vouchers for Christian schools
  5. I don't think users can delete their own posts, I think it's mods memory holing the bad behavior quietly and hoping they'll stop. However unfortunately, being an idiot is not against the rules.
  6. I bet he's got some good statistics that track "native born" wages against "foreign born" wages like chickensandwich was posting past week
  7. Fuck outta here, pronghorn! You've got a grainy unsourced screenshot that validates your biases? That never happens!
  8. If it turns out your hardware can do 5x the work you planned it to do, it's just a matter of finding customers to consume your available capacity. If there's a better LLM they'll just run that one instead, there's not a lot of architectural lock in. But still thats not the problem - there's simply not enough customers willing to actually pay to cover the costs of development and deployment. Companies have been playing accounting games to hide that unsustainable net revenue and trumpet their gross numbers instead
  9. The boogaloo bois are at it again!
  10. Agree on datacenter overbuilding - most businesses are horrible at predicting how much they'll need and rarely plan for scalable (up and down) operations. However, if they build a $5B datacenter and it turns out a $1B build could have done the same work that's not the end of the world - they just adjust their capitalization schedule for the asset and adjust their revenue model. The big problem is that they just don't have enough customers lining up to actually pay cash money for AI services. ChatGPT pro users paying $200/mo are a LOSS LEADER for open AI! They are lighting money on fire just to acquire customers and drive revenue for Azure, who in turn launders that as "AI revenue growth!!!" and never EVER talks about bottom line numbers. Crypto-only datacenters are just wild to me. They're literally just financializing entropy at that point, they are using energy and denying the use anywhere else which is what underlies the actual fundamental value of what crypto is being mined. There is not an end user, nor a business model, nor a real revenue stream aside from speculatively selling to a greater fool at a future date. Worse, the hardware is ultra-specialized ASIC chips that are unsuitable and non-ideal for any other type of computational workload
  11. With the correction of "stock market" for "economy" I don't think that's a claim, so much as an objective reality. Nvidia has basically single-handedly been keeping the SP500 green. But for their chips and the hype cycles they fuel, the stock market would be tanking and people wouldn't be so apt to pump sunshine. I made the distinction of "real" vs "speculative" growth because basically all of the earnings and financial reporting indicates there's no money being made. The majority of Azure's cloud revenue is credits that they gave to openAI, AWS is the same story but with Anthropic and their partners. It doesn't matter that they're hemmoraging money, they're growing so that's good enough for financial models to continue to make speculative bets and keep the music going
  12. using the dotcom bubble is an interesting guide because I feel like there's very similar forces at play: unbridled and uninformed enthusiasm about an emerging new technology the underlying technology is sound, just being overspeculated on the technology and computer science underlying it all will continue to be foundational to future economic growth Because as bad as the dotcom bubble was, it wasn't wrong in terms of direction, only magnitude. E-commerce and online interaction is basically the main way people buy things and communicate now - but it's a protocol and technology, not a directly financializable product. Much the same, I suspect LLM technology and what we colloqially call "AI" will be what unlocks and enables future opportunities and real (not speculative mark-to-market) economic growth
  13. because he's a nobody who got elevated to high office because he's a political hack. Lots of fascist goons look like complete goofballs - simply because that's what they are.
  14. Careful, you're liable to catch a ban around these parts for saying such unkind facts. You could upset a very fine member of the community with such toxic behavior
  15. got any .pdf's of the rules? I can PM you step-by-step instructions (or just post here) how to set it up. If you've got an m-series macbook you should be able to run at least a 4b models, and if you have a pro or m4 macbook with more memory you've got a pretty capable machine. this is all accurate, and I think I would also add to your points: genAI ultimately produces an "average" of everything it's read and ingested. It definitionally is not going to be creative or groundbreaking, but it certainly can do a lot of heavy lifting and sifting of unstructured information. What I'm interested in technologically is for LLM's to be applied to more than just lingustic information. What happens when you develop a neural network that has a foundational and didactically unique understanding of traffic flow engineering, or chip design, or any variety of fields that involve more data than we raw meatbags are capable of processing at scale. None of that is big and sexy, but it is extremely powerful when applied to the right problem set. Once we get to a point of being able to train narrow field expert models, and then scalably orchestrate them together into a larger mixture of experts model (similar to the DeepSeek architecture) that would really be one hell of a powerhouse model. .... It would probably take a dyson sphere level of energy to produce such a generally capable model though. At least at the current (known) levels of computational power and solutions available
  16. Lulz I can't wait to see chickensandwich whipsaw into a full throated support of state capitalism and revenue skimming
  17. Sweatergod, it's like the summer of 2020 when the chuds only response was "ANTIFA!!!" to anything and everything that was happening. Police teakettling and pummeling peaceful protesters with rubber bullets and flashbands? Must have been antifa nearby riling them up. Just a complete and willful lack of critical thinking to go along and get along with the fascism their lying eyes keeps seeing
  18. Behold, the fee market! https://www.ft.com/content/cd1a0729-a8ab-41e1-a4d2-8907f4c01cac The US official said Nvidia agreed to share 15 per cent of the revenues from H20 chip sales in China and AMD would provide the same percentage from MI308 chip revenues. Two people familiar with the arrangement said the Trump administration had not yet determined how to use the money. The Financial Times reported that the commerce department started issuing H20 export licences on Friday, two days after Nvidia chief executive Jensen Huang met President Donald Trump. The US official said the administration had also started issuing licences for AMD’s China chip. The quid pro quo arrangement is unprecedented. According to export control experts, no US company has ever agreed to pay a portion of their revenues to obtain export licences. But the deal fits a pattern in the Trump administration where the president urges companies to take measures, such as domestic investments, for example, to prevent the imposition of tariffs in an effort to bring in jobs and revenue to America
  19. Ya know, it's crazy the feds just shake those businesses down now in order to have access to a market https://www.ft.com/content/cd1a0729-a8ab-41e1-a4d2-8907f4c01cac The US official said Nvidia agreed to share 15 per cent of the revenues from H20 chip sales in China and AMD would provide the same percentage from MI308 chip revenues. Two people familiar with the arrangement said the Trump administration had not yet determined how to use the money. The Financial Times reported that the commerce department started issuing H20 export licences on Friday, two days after Nvidia chief executive Jensen Huang met President Donald Trump. The US official said the administration had also started issuing licences for AMD’s China chip. The quid pro quo arrangement is unprecedented. According to export control experts, no US company has ever agreed to pay a portion of their revenues to obtain export licences. But the deal fits a pattern in the Trump administration where the president urges companies to take measures, such as domestic investments, for example, to prevent the imposition of tariffs in an effort to bring in jobs and revenue to America.
  20. I'm talking about the Presidential™ TrumpCoin®, not Bitcoin, considering the only purpose of the side coins is to drive demand for BTC as an entry to crypto for more greater fools
  21. It's wild how the entire argument for crypto from pro-trump people is "trump is ruining the US economy so you should use crypto!" Impressive self-licking ice cream cone. I wonder why trump isnt shilling his briberycoin more, if we're just abandoning the dollar
  22. Wild how little the mods seem to enforce rules depending on poster. Dude has been going for the better part of a week across multiple threads, and derailing for days with personal attacks. Really frustrating that being an idiot is a protected class on surly. If you try to engage with them, you get banned for replying to the content of their posts.
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