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swraith

Certifiably Surly
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Everything posted by swraith

  1. As much as I think Brexit is a huge mistake and don’t want to see it happen...I don’t think Boris has made a mistake here. There is no political figure in UK that can stop Brexit and Boris doesn’t limit himself to conventional rules. Much like Trump. Because the default action is hard crash Brexit, it’s going to happen. How long Boris remains PM post Brexit is open to wild speculation. All depends on if the fears of Brexit are wildly overblown or surprisingly accurate. But even if this is all that Boris accomplishes as PM, he will have marked his place in history.
  2. I assume any UK-US trade deal would require Congressional approval? I dont see the Democrats giving Trump any legislation as he enters his Election year.
  3. Sounds like UK and EU are both in for a lot of pain when hard Brexit happens. Yet Financial Markets continue to act as if there is no major concern here. Yes the currency continues to devalue...but if even a bit of the fear forecasts of Brexit come true...the UK could be a shit show next year. Scotland and Northern Ireland seeking Independence from England would be hilarious as a response.
  4. Nope. Sell button works fine. Just my brain and emotions that are broken. Won’t let me realize the paper loss. The emotions are afraid maybe the stock will turn around after I sell it...couldn’t live with the shame of that. So I keep riding it lower.
  5. I did that at $18 and wish I could get out at this point.
  6. In speaking for ERCOT planning, wind is absolutely planned for in the SARA report. In aggregate, total ERCOT wind generation capacity can be statistically forecast to produce a certain amount of energy at given times of the year. ERCOT produces a discount factor for nameplate wind generation capacity. This is for planning purposes. Will we see deviations from this forecasted volume in real time production on any given day? Absolutely. However a predicted amount of wind generation can be forecast for planning purposes. This is no different then in aggregate you have Y nameplate capacity for thermal generation for the ERCOT grid. ERCOT forecasts a certain amount of that generationthat will be on planned and unplanned outage for planning purposes. Will you see deviations from that number in real time? Absolutely. Will large deviations cause real time pricing volatility? Possibly.
  7. This thread has become about as useless as a coal plant in a $2/mmbtu natural gas world. I don’t have much of value to add. But I can answer yes to all 3 of Brisket’s above questions. So I guess I have that going for me.
  8. If the recession actually plays out through the end of the year...it will be ugly. The most surprising thing to me is that it took this long to come about.
  9. Today’s shafting was total butt fuckery compared to yesterday.
  10. Griddy ERCOT customers getting shafted today.
  11. If you are on Griddy in ERCOT, tomorrow could be very....interesting. ERCOT Load Forecast ERCOT load forecast for 8/12/19....LF is >1000 mw higher than scheduled generation. Maybe more wind shows up or maybe more thermal generation shows up....or maybe the Load Forecast disappoints and load comes in lower. If none of those happens...real time pricing should see some real fireworks.
  12. So long Surly...Trump’s coming for you.
  13. Pretty sure if my lawn could talk...it would just mutter “don’t bother watering me...it’s too fucking hot regardless of how much water you give me...I just want to shrivel up and die”
  14. My kids basically refuse to go outside in this heat. Can’t blame them.
  15. ^^ He doesn’t give a shit. He knows the path he is on and isn’t going to change because a few local protestors.
  16. I was confused with the OP...thinking he was returning to delivering pizza. In that context...the whole post was gibberish. Not until I read some of the responses mentioning spades did I realize my error.
  17. Well this looks fun this morning.
  18. Enjoy your 1.7” 78757 got a whopping 0.16 inch.
  19. I welcome any and all rain at this.
  20. Doesn’t have quite the same gravitas as Moscow Mitch
  21. The Oak Hill project could be as wide as 12 lanes wide? Holy shit that is huge.
  22. Radio said 103 high at Camp Mabry today. That is a wee bit on the toasty side.
  23. Just back from a 9 day family vacation. I read about the cooler temps last week in Austin while away but the lawn looks roasted. Granted I don’t have an irrigation system but damn the yard is dry as fuck. Huge cracks in the clay soil. Lots of shriveled browning In the lawn. Started hand watering a bit this evening. Water just instantly disappears on the ground. Going to take a shit load of water to make a dent.
  24. ERCOT has no meaningful exports to other power grids. The multiple DC ties exist but their capacity is very small. This is what allows ERCOT to avoid FERC regulation. As such, MW generated basically equals the load consumption in ERCOT. Wind generators do not generate excess energy if the load can not consume it. ERCOT uses SCED to send price signals to all generators. Wind is going to be the last to backdown generation based on economics because their fuel cost is zero and their marginal cost of production is negative with the subsidies. So thermal generation is going to back down production before wind. The two exceptions to this will be 1) transmission constraint leading to significant negative pricing is wind generation heavy parts of the grid or 2) unsafe wind conditions that force with wind turbine operators to backdown the wind turn one to keep it safe. Capacity utilization factors for wind farms vary wildly based on their location. Think 20% to 40% annually. Some of the wind farms on the coast line may exceed those numbers to the high side.
  25. One can only hope.
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