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LCHorn

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Everything posted by LCHorn

  1. I’m in total agreement that Bibi is basically Elon Musk promising self-driving will roll out five minutes from now, but I’m skeptical that WE would have already known about it. What we might read into Israel’s early success is they have ground assets and presumably far better human intelligence than we do. Either way, they put their money where their mouth is rather than defer it until later.
  2. You’re probably at least half joking, but we didn’t really start to subdue Al Anbar until the Saudi’s funneled money to the sheiks. I feel like for what we spent over there we could have just bought the whole country, or at least the really shitty parts that ended up becoming part of ISIS. I’m going to sound like Lobo, but it reminds me of when Michael Clayton says to Tilda Swinton “I’m not the guy you kill, I’m the guy you buy.”
  3. They don’t have the manpower for that and wouldn’t try to do it. Khamanei is 86 and probably the IRGC dispenses with the pretense of letting the mullahs think they run things if he’s killed and they are under threat. Letting him live, somewhat infirm and under duress, is far more helpful to create government confusion.
  4. I’m not sure that’s a settled opinion here. What say you @chainsaw? Iran has two thousand years of history of attempting to exert regional dominance. In more recent times, they’ve attempted to lead the region economically and culturally (under the Shah), and more violently with proxies (under the mullahs/IRGC). In fact, part of the current enmity Iran holds towards Israel is for the simple fact the Shah was friendly to them and they were allies for 30 years until the revolution. Khomenei basically manufactured a rivalry to help justify his criticisms of the regime (to be fair, he alternatively hated and cozied up to pretty much everyone else in the region during his exile except the Israeli’s, so I’m sure his anti-semitism was at least sincere). I don’t think North Korea or Pakistan is a great example, but the latter is probably a better comparison, at least in that factions of their government do, in fact, support terrorist activities for regional influence (including, against us). For me, it’s not the threat of using the nuclear bomb that’s as realistic as their ongoing support for extremist groups that, and let’s be clear about this, aren’t allies in a religious or cultural sense (Hamas and Hezbollah). The only thing they share is a willingness to kill Jews (and Americans when they get the chance). Anyway, if you let them have it pretty much every “friendly” Arab state that’s close will want a stepped up US security guarantee. I don’t know why that matters in 2025 since basically we don’t give a shit about allies in this country anymore, but it’s ultimately destabilizing and only the most wishful thinker (or our current admin) imagines that the last 70 years of relative peace and prosperity in the world would have been possible without alliances. For the record, and I absolutely detest Trump and pretty much every asshole that voted for him, but this was the right call. It wasn’t working, the Iranians weren’t required to comply with inspections and they were secretly enriching uranium at undeclared sites anyway-I don’t want to get into a source-off, but mine is unimpeachable on this. If you don’t care to get into a pissing contest about who is right, I’ll just defer to “how do YOU know it was working?”
  5. You jest, but this probably better describes the ongoing reality tv show that Trump imagines he’s hosting in the Oval than anything else. I had lunch with a former VERY senior intelligence official (retired) yesterday and, while this isn’t news, was a good reminder of how predictions based on any particular foreign policy are doomed. “Trump has no policy preferences, he’s going to do whatever makes sure he remains the star of the show.” Also, it seems like the board’s consensus is that Israel shouldn’t have attacked Iran and we should definitely not get involved, right? Am I alone in applauding the Israelis and that I’m very torn (but certainly wouldn’t rule out) supplementing their air campaign if needed?
  6. I particularly like this on out of state recruits for whom the natural fit is closer, like a Georgia or U of F.
  7. Not to jinx it, but I also recall inferring that Kelee Ringo was headed here after spending all of his spring break on campus….
  8. So Bari Weiss had Niall Ferguson and Dexter Filkins on her podcast today (recorded yesterday noonish) and they speculated that the Iranians could try to get what enriched uranium they have and detonate it in the desert, thereby declaring themselves a nuclear power in an effort to cower a restive populace. Another interesting tidbit was an expectation Israel will have to put boots on the ground to permanently cripple Fordo. Filkens said a former Biden official told him the Israeli SF were role playing that a month ago. What makes you think they haven’t already? Israel got to much of their arsenal already.
  9. Agreed, that’s also a very moveable contract. True, and it’s unlikely we’ll be able to test this prediction, but if we do get Durant be prepared for him to speak out about how shitty our offensive sets are and that he has to do all of the work.
  10. Maybe it’s not the amount of the discount, it’s who is making it. I bet @Gil Bang doesn’t call the buxom travel nurse who wants his ADU and mentions “btw, I like to sunbathe nude if that’s okay” an asshole if she asks for a discount….
  11. I would love to take someone with his shooting ability and give him Green’s minutes. Unfortunately, I think you mostly have to hide him on defense at the 4, maybe he plays 3 in a big lineup and you sacrifice a lot of defense for offense. I think that’s a bad fit unless you’re making other trades. Aside from Amen, the current Rockets look a little like a team of mismatched parts welded together. They each have deficiencies that can be covered up by other guys on the floor, but it also means that plugging someone new in has more fit challenges than on, say the Lakers.
  12. Circling back to @Hank Kingsley's point about announcing now for '28, I've been thinking that one reason to NOT would be that it'd be a lot of time for the arrows to land and for voters to get fatigued. That said, there was an Atlantic article on 6/9 talking about how poorly measured so much of the Democratic campaigns outreach efforts have been, and the TL:DR on it is that what worked in 2016 appears to have really diminishing returns in 2018 and very little impact in 2024. Dem campaign subcontractors and policy groups don't like to talk about this because it undermines their value when trying to solicit donations. At the end of the article, a source made the point that the GOP is far better at creating in between election engagement and that's helped neuter Dem campaign efforts (i.e., if you're a Rogen listener and you've heard from a number of GOP officials, or comedians mocking incumbent Biden, etc., over the past couple of years, a personalized snail mail letter or really good social media campaign in the 60 days prior to the election isn't having much impact). Another interesting finding was that door knocking might actually be improving your opponents chances, i.e., voters in high engagement races are already saturated with outreach and are displeased at being bothered in person. Anyway, if you follow that logic, announcing now gives you the opportunity to build out your coalition more organically and follow the GOP playbook of making it more of a cultural (or for @troph and fellow Greg Casar lovers, economic) movement.
  13. I wouldn't say entirely unscathed, apparently he's getting primaried if someone can meet your price 😉
  14. I’m not sure I understand, although perhaps I’m missing a Strake Jesuit joke. He’s a member of the congressional Hispanic caucus, so he appears to think he’s Hispanic.
  15. To be fair, let's not exaggerate the political brilliance of Casar winning in a district that's 53.8% hispanic. I know you like to lay the blame for enforcing the homeless camping ban at the feet of law enforcement, but it's undoubtedly true that he was way out in front of a permissiveness that was loudly rebuked by voters.
  16. I'm not picking on you specifically, but the left doesn't need to aggrandize the GOP and shouldn't try to mimic their more dysfunctional behaviors in order to win elections. This requires some hope, but if the Dems can find a really good communicator that's cool it'll go a LONG way to revealing how fragile the GOP 2024 coalition was. @Bozo_Casanova has been beating this drum (and for the record and for @bolverk, I disagree with him somewhat on "it's the singer, not the song"), and it's been also getting discussed by all the of the lefty podcasters--throw out 2024, that was a self-own by Biden and the rest of the party and it's not going to teach helpful lessons next year or when the race heats up in 2027. Instead, what they/we need to acknowledge is that the way information is getting passed from elites to everyone else, from business to consumer, from neighbor to neighbor, etc., has had a revolutionary change in the last decade. I'll give you an example--my 75 year dad asked me yesterday "Do you know what Reels are? I've been watching those, they are so funny!" He's not watching 60 Minutes, he's consuming media via the shit we mock as the domain of ignorant Gen Z. Whoever masters the new media environment is likelier than not to win elections. Do that and pick a few policies that are broadly popular like David Shor recommends and see who's best at getting attention in a long primary season.
  17. I would be shocked if a) the Astros were willing to take on his salary or b) Brown would be willing with the prospects needed to get Tampa to pay his salary. Also, Lowe kinda sucks. He's an upgrade only because Rogers is terrible (although, if you are taking a look at second basemen league wide, he's below average but far from the bottom in WAR). I wish they'd give Whitcomb the at bats and we can at least see if he's viable before he's a minor league free agent.
  18. I'm not really into calling out individual posters out on it, but @Bozo_Casanova is right in that a number of contributors to this thread (and across CR) want to make this an echo chamber demanding a progressive purity that is a doomed electoral strategy. It's also tone-deaf, as they sit in judgment of politicians that try to reach out to Trump voters and then wonder why those same voters think Democrats are a bunch of snobs. There is no Obama coalition anymore. If you don't want President Vance in '28 we're going to need to make inroads into any groups that share some (but not all) of the party's priorities. Nah, that's a bad process and what led to Harris (although I'm not second guessing the decision given the lack of time for a proper primary). Dems need whoever is able to win a fully contested primary, that's it. I don't think that's a permanent solution to governing an electorate that wants every election to be a change election, but that's a separate discussion. I actually disagree with each of these. Let's not confuse Trump's almost singular ability to pull in unlikely voters for durable Republican support. They've built a coalition that can unite around a tax cut but that's a) hanging by a thread and b) they are almost totally incapable of aligning around any other single issue. It's partially why Trump has discovered the Presidency is a grift machine--there's no other leadership to counter him.
  19. Chandler Rome has been adamant that Espada/Brown aren’t moving Altuve back to 2nd. You might read into that they would prefer to lose offense in exchange for better defense there, at least for this season.
  20. I think you’re confusing the thread for Scott Galloway’s suggestion from that same podcast. Announce now and make it about bringing justice to every corrupt administration official and start building popular support for that three years from now. I’m not sure I agree, but I did want Biden to spend his political capital on election reform and not BBB. Trump has sent an enormous signal to every grifter politician in the country that you can get away with it.
  21. Ah, I see. I didn’t realize agents took that so personally. I get hard shopped probably 50% of the time lately and life is just too short to get upset over it.
  22. Why is he an asshole? Do you expect that he not follow the request of his client to lowball yours?
  23. I’m not trading that Phoenix ‘27 unless I’m getting back a starting calibre player that is on the same timeline as Sengun/Jabari/Amen.
  24. That's a great trade for maximizing the value of those Phoenix picks the Rockets own.
  25. Hmmmmm......
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