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LCHorn

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Everything posted by LCHorn

  1. Care to elaborate? I mentioned upthread that I’m getting close to hate watching this show, and while that diminished in the last couple of weeks, I think it’s due mostly to declining expectations. I was watching Segel in the first scene of this week’s episode thinking “if the camera wasn’t in close up and the lighting was worse, add a laugh track and this is a sitcom”. The fact I can’t stand sitcoms but love Ted Lasso probably speaks more to the recognition by the production team that shooting a sitcom like a drama seems to work better in the 2020’s. Here it seems to be trying too hard.
  2. This-I wouldn’t want to start wishing for the opposite but clearly the market isn’t taking the lead from the Fed at the moments.
  3. If that’s the case it’s been working.
  4. If we’re going all in on ‘25 we have to resign Bregman and anyone else that can add wins to this team.
  5. First off, I appreciate you feeding my news addiction. Other hand, you deserve permaban for posting something from that moron.
  6. I agree that’s a presumption that gets repeated by sports media, and it seems intuitively true. Fangraphs (I think) did an article last season on Justin Turner and made a case that his bat speed was shit but he made it work because he was so selective about which pitches to swing at. At the time I read it, Bregman was off to his usual slow start and I wondered if the same thing was happening to him (let’s recall that the exit velocity stats have never favored Bregman and I presume it’s partially bat speed driven). If you look at Springers stats, the eye is holding up and if his contact could improve enough to raise his batting average by 50 points he’s probably a fringe all-star (I’m not equipped to evaluate defense and if he’s fallen off a lot there I wouldn’t opine).
  7. Oh yeah, of course. The question is whether there’s a way to obtain discounted Wins taking older players and using them in unusual ways. A more common variation of this would be moving a mediocre starter to closer where they can pump velocity better in short stints. We haven’t really seen this tried much with position players, maybe because it doesn’t work, rosters are too short, etc. If I was trying to dream up how it might look, however, I would start with someone who was a terrific athlete like Springer and/ or someone who can’t stay healthy like Brantley. I don’t follow the Dodgers much but I think they attempted a variation of this idea with Justin Turner. I can’t recall the Baseball Prospectus writer whose dad was an orthopedic surgeon or something and he would write about injuries mostly, but they’ve been promoting the idea that health is the sixth tool for 20 years.
  8. I’ve actually thought this might be perhaps a little unexplored Moneyball frontier (declining players who might be more useful in different circumstances). It very well might be that playing Springer 3 days a week gets you 350 at bats of the best Springer and keeps him healthy, for example, and that outperforms a grab bat of AAAA superstars that the Astros might otherwise run out in right if Tucker is gone.
  9. I’m talking about Tarrytown and similarly priced ranged Austin buyers. Three years ago there was tons of people leaving elsewhere and buying in the most desirable neighborhoods in town. That’s stopped or suffered such a deterioration in demand that it’s impossible to ignore. I’m not sure how I feel about Austin itself-there’s a very real affordability problem living here that is remedied simply by moving a few miles down the road. People on the Reddit “AustinFood” group, for example, aren’t talking about how they can get good meals for cheap anymore, they are talking about how it was cheaper to eat in NYC. Austin MSA will be fine but that’s not helping AISD fund their campuses with declining enrollment.
  10. I want to echo this because I’ve made home loans to quite a few former football players. They are pretty much on their own, in fact, once their eligibility is up. Granted, the ones I’ve worked with aren’t trying to get on with Freeport McMoRan. The one exception I’ve seen is several Anglo players that parlayed their (presumably) football derived connections to get their foot in the door in commercial property and/or development.
  11. Hah! You and I both know trying to run a business losing money today because you *think* you might make more tomorrow sucks. I don’t begrudge Crane wanting to break-even or even make a profit. He needs a war time consigliere, though. I guess we’ll see if Brown can be that.
  12. Same, I never would have thought “As goes Gossett, goes Tarrytown.” I don’t want to say this out loud and wish it into existence, but I do think affordability at all price points, along with the loss of luster of Austin post-pandemic is not great for future growth. I think some of it is that is tied to Texas in general; you just can’t be this unfriendly (to women, to minorities, to just application of the law) and not have that impact immigration, particularly among high wage earners with the most employment mobility. I don’t think our addition of Instagram celebrities and life coaches makes up for it, either. Anyway, wanted to add that after I blamed rates and admit that not’s all of it.
  13. Looks like the Red Sox kept their best prospects back.
  14. The point is championships. I care who is in the jersey but not the expense of winning. I don’t really care what the budget is as long as it’s spent smartly. Tampa usually runs a payroll 25% of the Astros and wins a lot of games (and would be really good if their generational talent signed to a team friendly decade-long contract wasn’t a pedophile).
  15. Lest this become a thing, there’s no connection to the Wounded Warrior Project and Hegseth. Probably we can dig up some controversy on the former but I’ve also seen lots of actual charity from their fundraising for San Antonio veterans receiving treatment at BAMC. It’s pretty sad that a multiple amputee needs to have a charitable organization pay for remodeling his house so that he can move about in a wheel chair, rather than VA money, but that’s the reality.
  16. Anecdotal, but I know some small builders who aren't able to move their $2.5m+ West Lake homes, either. All of this is rate related and property tax related.
  17. You raise a good point and here's some corroboration. I was exchanging emails the other day with one of the commercial banks to whom we send borrowers for interim constructions loans and they are tapped out. Not because they've got too many home owner borrowers, but because they are also a provider of loans to smaller builders in Austin and they aren't able to move their inventory (bear in mind these are predominately infill spec builds $1.5m+ zips like 78704, so not your usual DR Horton buyer). The bank doesn't want the houses so they renew the loans.
  18. All that money and can’t afford to pay someone to tell him the truth about his hair….
  19. No thanks, he’s had a good start to the season but hasn’t had his inevitable 20-30 games of injury and he’s not the floor spacer a Green replacement needs to be. Keep holding out for Booker and a Suns collapse in ‘26 or the Pacers get dumb and want to move on from Halliburton.
  20. If you have money for down-payment on an investment property, maybe you have sufficient funds to make a few hard money loans? Also, if you hate dealing with tenants that much you can hire a property manager (I’m sure you’ve considered that already).
  21. Take it fwiw, but one of the comments on the Deadline trailer announcement claimed to have worked on the film and stated that’s not him.
  22. Turning it off after about two minutes and the third exaggeration. First off, fuck DR Horton. Second, when a builder includes incentives it’s not taking less in profit-it’s built into the sales price. Considering the video appears to have been published three weeks ago and DR Horton’s stock is about the same as then ($157 a share!), it doesn’t look like the market is expecting some cataclysmic result.
  23. Matt Shaw and Owen Caissie are your Bregman and Tucker replacements at minor league minimum and both are ready. Two top 50 mlb prospects and a few lotto tickets is the minimum I’d settle for. They can keep Bellinger or we take him for a bigger package in exchange for paying his stupid contract.
  24. What’s worse, is he ended up forgoing building his VP’s profile by making her his proxy. As long as the Democratic brand is going to be toxically attached to the social cause de jure, mainstream Democrats will need to run against it (Obama and Clinton both did this successfully). Another way to look at this is that the Dems have been very successful pulling the country left on a host of social issues, but it’s embittered a significant part of the electorate that would otherwise find common cause with them, particularly on economic issues.
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