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LCHorn

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Everything posted by LCHorn

  1. Normally I think that’s a terrible sentiment if you want to win championships, but then I remember Hakeem in a fucking Raptors jersey…
  2. I think there’s been a little bit of a historical reevaluation of the Bush presidency, partly due to time and partly because of the changes in the GOP. And unfortunately I think people are forgetting that it was chock full of really, really stupid ideas.
  3. I haven’t watched it, but I love to imagine the whole “Spider-Man Universe” came about because of a Bohemian Grove like retreat held by a bunch of Sony production execs and lots of cocaine. “Look here man, those idiot fucks Lord and Miller made $1b with a cartoon and it wasn’t even about Peter Parker. We can do this! You have Madame Web and we’ll get a bunch of hot young chicks, it’ll pull in teen girls AND boys! And you over there with the pipe, we’ll give you Kraven the Hunter. No, you can’t have Spider-Man do a cameo but we’ll do a post credit scene with Morbius, we still have a five picture deal with Leto.
  4. If it's somewhat soothing, Amazon and Apple+ both appear indifferent to profits (I'm sure that will change). Both are taking BIG swings. I don't have access to anything internal, but I'd be flabbergasted if the analytics remotely justified the rights and production cost of The Rings of Power (and I don't think the critical response was sufficient that they might think "this is really good, we just need to promote it more"), yet they greenlit a second season. Apple is basically HBO from the 2000's without the "VP of Tits" that everyone would joke about when the trip to the Bada Bing included nipple shots or we had a tracking shot through Littlefingers' bordello.
  5. No, it was at the time, might have been in a chat. I recall it specifically because I was excited about the signing and figured Law was just being a contrarian. Plus it was a little bit of a different take than what I thought the 2022 numbers showed (which to me looked like someone who made a big swing adjustment that worked).
  6. I don’t think Thompson is ever going to be a true point guard unless you think Ben Simmons was at one point viable. More likely he’s Scottie Pippen (best case)
  7. I just don’t feel that comfortable playing armchair QB. I’m sure there’s lot of what if’s that could have played out in all kinds of ways. More interesting to me, if I’m Crane, is what the fuck is my scouting and analytics department doing if they can’t predict a drop-off that precipitous. Keith Law, coincidentally mentioned a few posts ago, was pretty bearish on the signing at the time and cited troubling internal scouting about Abreu’s bat as the reason, but didn’t want to elaborate much further (it was clear that came from a team). I keep beating this horse like @Wulaw Horn beats low bridges, but it’s like they have a list of players Luhnow liked (Abreu, Hader too main examples) and are still trying to follow his five year plan from 2017.
  8. I’m going to have to disagree there-I was kinda shocked Tokyo Vice got a second season in the first place. I didn’t watch Perry Mason, but same deal, shocked there was a second season because it just didn’t catch on. I don’t think the modern entertainment market is just set up to support a Wire or a Treme, even on HBO. WB-Discovery is just way too over-leveraged and can’t afford to let things build for three seasons in the hope that subscribers will catch on. Plus, now they can track all that shit on their app and are going to mirror Netflix and kill off pretty decent series because the viewership just doesn’t quite meet expectations. As to Tokyo Vice, specifically, it felt like they finished their story. Continuing it would require either a lot of contrivance to bring the same characters together, or you just peel off Jake and maybe Katagiri and tell a new story. Given the presumed viewership I can see why they would rather roll the dice on a different property. I don’t know Sarah Aubrey but have some connections in common (and she grew up in Austin) so have followed her career since she was the production partner for Peter Berg. She has a really great taste without being a snob. I can’t recall if she was hired before or after Vice was put into production (probably after), but I definitely think it’s the kind of property she’d want to support if the viewers could find it.
  9. Shepard is going to be a 3 and D point. Green, Amen, and Sengun are going to be the main distributors.
  10. Yuli was an out machine in ‘22. It was obvious we needed at upgrade at first, we just chose poorly* *and I was definitely in the “let’s sign Abreu” camp as he was the only FA I liked and I didn’t want to lose more prospects in trade.
  11. It was a little weird when we would see police roll up and all of the servers and bartenders would nonchalantly shake their heads and say “cartels”. It seemed like at least one person got killed every day while we were there; I guess they just get swept away with the seaweed.
  12. You want to add another 2 guard to split developmental minutes with Green, or are you just totally out on him?
  13. I used to exchange messages with Keith back when he was in college in the rec.sports days-pretty much every team’s fans think he has a beef with them. I also don’t recall him being particularly complimentary even in the Luhnow days when he was just back from working as an assistant GM in Toronto.
  14. Spoken like someone who’s not brought a Haitian home to abuela…
  15. I used to live back in the neighborhood behind it and always thought it was kind of bad location. I bet they did about as well with it as one could do.
  16. I call bullshit on that Scalia total.
  17. This is probably a fantasy on my part, but I like to imagine prospective athletes expecting additional NIL money from A&M because it’s a school full of weirdos.
  18. The logistics of it also become insane. We did a GSE loan for a guy in 2021 (several actually) that owned over 90 houses free and clear and the documentation burden was insane. There’s no way we made money on them if we actually looked at the hours of labor involved.
  19. That’s a clickbait article and something I’m seeing all too frequently from formerly reliable media sources like CNN and The NY Times. I suppose even they need outrage to keep the money machine running and there’s only so much space they can devote to Trump. What UWM is doing isn’t any different than what’s been offered by various down-payment assistance programs for the last 20 years, most of whom are using HUD money for the program funds (the Chenoa fund a notable exception, whose funds come from an Indian tribe). Those didn’t seem to crash the economy and UWM has lots of federal and state data to show their approximate losses on those 2nd liens. I don’t know how UWM’s program will work, but the traditional government programs are all very niche, anyway, and have some big downsides (increased cost of borrowing, 2nd lien can’t be resubordinated so borrower can’t refinance until they have enough equity to pay off 2nd lien). My impression is that UWM rolls these out because they know websites like CNN will talk about them and it gives their brokers something to sell, but they won’t write many mortgages that actually use them (by design).
  20. If true then I’m sure that’s a factor. I’m saying that monopolies and cartels in many industries has had the result of limiting the choices managed funds have in equities, and they are looking elsewhere. If what you’re saying is true then it might not just be a matter of total dollars, it might also be because funds (probably led by newer funds) need to justify themselves and that creates pressure to be creative or look in weird places for investments. I’m stealing this from the Hidden Forces podcast, but if we take one industry, let’s say automobile for familiarity, and posit that electric car demand is a huge disrupter that allows new entrants an easier path to market entry than 10 years ago (when they would be competing instead with firms that have up to 100 year head starts), then we should see more new firms than we are. Instead it’s mostly just Tesla and a smattering of rival firms that are far smaller. if you’re managing a fund that doesn’t give you a lot of options for that industry, and telling your investors that you put their money in Tesla is something they are perfectly capable of doing on their own. I’m sure there’s all kinds of other reasons (potential for AI disruption in services, outsourcing, direct state subsidies in foreign markets) that also make equities seem riskier than in previous business cycles.
  21. 27 offers sounds like someone who had bad advice from their agent… Taxation is one remedy, but I would offer that the real cause is a failure of the modern economy to produce firms worth investing in (I.e., capital is looking for non-traditional investments). Lots of guilty parties contributing to that, but lots of solutions as well.
  22. All of the IT people appear to think Sanders is a comparable to Zion and Brown, likely because Nahlin thinks so.
  23. The trades reported that, but I wonder, too, if FF wasn’t far enough along conceptually (Marvel is somewhat notorious in trying to develop multiple scripts at the same time) and wanted to have his calendar free for pretty much anything else more ready to lens.
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