LCHorn
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Everything posted by LCHorn
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@Wulaw Horn has stronger feelings about him than I do; I'm mostly interested in upgrading over a comfort hire. Dusty had gotten independent in ways that defied the needed mind meld between GM and field manager; Espada promised to be a team player and had been in the org for five years so had familiarity with personnel. I didn't mind giving him a shot but he's a caretaker and we're not good enough to get by with that anymore.
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Texas Recruiting Notes 2026: Boulevard of Broken Bagmen
LCHorn replied to texifornia's topic in š¤«$9.95š¤«
Iām relying on what Bobby or Gerry wrote previously (or misremembering), but I believe it was said we were willing to match the NIL commitment back when he committed. -
Re: Bochy, Iāll add that dumping Espada and hiring Bochy is exactly the kind of splash off-season move that Crane appears to get excited about (and possibly overruling his GM):
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This is silly: Bochy is going into the HOF once heās eligible and Iāll be shocked if a fired Espada ever gets higher than bench coach again. Correa has two priorities-getting paid and winning. Organizing an affirmative action program for MLB management is going to be pretty low on the list.
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Government Shutdown 2025: This Time Itās Personal
LCHorn replied to Bozo_Casanova's topic in Cloak Room
They are essential but presumably will be lightly staffed as unpaid TSA workers stage a sick-out. More troubling is the same action undergone by the air traffic controllers. -
Government Shutdown 2025: This Time Itās Personal
LCHorn replied to Bozo_Casanova's topic in Cloak Room
Utilizing government agencies as propaganda delivery needs to be high on the list of corrupt practices addressed by a future Dem leadership. Right now, GOP house members are happy to hide behind the Senate because they donāt have enough votes for cloture. Once the GOP majority in the Senate eliminates the filibuster youāll see shit in the fan in the House. -
Not to change the subject from unruly cyclists, but I would be happy to fork over $2k, $3k annually for a BART type rail line. Iām just confounded we canāt seem to build that kind of thing here.
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All three of these are obvious upgrades on a Dusty-esque year-to-year, letās see how it goes contract. If Espada gets fired Iām going to particular enjoy the carnage in the Chandler Rome comment section as the general opinion there is heās MOY. The Athletic comments are the absolute dumbest group of posters outside of every SEC school that isnāt us.
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I think that was just happenstance and/or management futility. Most mature, good teams end up being stars and scrubs, even before the CBT, just because owners end up holding the line somewhere on payroll. The author (really dating myself, but it was probably Gary Huckabay) was commenting on how teams like the Pirates (and then Royals) never commit to one strategy or another and end up signing mid-tier free agents so they can finish 3rd in the AL Central. You really donāt see that as much in the era of broadly adopted analytics even with minimum payroll requirements. Regardless, Crane/Brown need to get creative on the margins because thereās not a lot of payroll flexibility outside of maybe moving Walker or someone else that retains upside.
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First time for me, no kids. Spouse has already seen all top attractions so things like the Eiffel are a check in the box (for me) so that weāve done it together. Plus, Iāve always wanted to kiss deeply with a girl on the tower and I doubt my wife will approve if itās not her.
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Thatās why Iām trying to not over-schedule š
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Stars and scrubs is in reference to an old Baseball Prospectus team building article and itās more in reference to how to best optimize payroll across the team than as a judge of talent. We have a fairly mature roster with the veterans getting paid market, a few cost controlled assets with potentially large surplus values like Brown or maybe Smith, and a few JAGās that need to be replaced once they get expensive (Dubon, Meyers). Dubon is probably worth it on a team with a lower payroll or less established veterans in the infield.
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So it looks like weāre going to spend 6 days in Paris broken up by three days in Aix. Have Septime booked for dinner, Eiffel Tower, Louvre, and Musee Dā Orsay booked (Notre Dame doesnāt accept reserves until two days before). Any other must-doās that arenāt time consuming? Our hotels are in Le Marais if that matters.
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The Leopards Eating Faces and Unlubed Dildo of Consequences Thread
LCHorn replied to Horn Dog's topic in Cloak Room
Haha, David Brooks being forced to face up to the emptiness of his understanding for anyone outside his bubble is one of my favorite NYT drinking games. -
Counterpoint-the Dems have been focused on policy solutions since 1992 designed to benefit Americans but blame GOP recalcitrance for a failure to implement popular programs about which they themselves are quietly unsupportive. Iām eager for them to pass a billionaire tax just because, and so are a lot of people. I donāt care if itās unsound economically, or doesnāt really raise much in revenue. Itās simply good optics and the Dems need to remind voters which side of the fence theyāre on. Iām avidly watching the potential candidates in 2028 try out different messages and Iām going to support whichever one gets their head around the idea that Trump has broken the norms sufficiently that preserving limits to power simply out custom is stupid.
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I actually think (and itās very context dependent) this might be an area where I donāt trade.* There are 500 ABās that went to Sanchez, Trammel, Hummel, and McCormick that were wildly below replacement level on offense. I know those werenāt all projected starters back in April, but Brown needs to have better depth in AAA for the inevitable injuries. Maybe thatās Melton once itās realized heās not starter material on a good team. *also, I donāt think the Leonās of the world are worth anything.
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Cristian Javierās performance in 2025 has all kinds of small sample size noise (big red flag, for example, is a HR rate half his career average). Hell, counting on him to even be healthy going into a 2026 playoff series is a riskier bet than I want Crane/Brown faced with. I donāt think you can rely on him, either. Forget health, his performance when presumably healthy in 2025 shouldnāt make anyone feel comfortable as a rotation piece. I get the general optimism because you can find things to like about these two (and Blubaugh), but each requires betting on a big performance jump in 2026. I know you know they donāt ALL have to hit, but itās also a bad way to build a team. Weāre also avoiding taking about a Brown regression and thatās certainly in the range of normal outcomes, too.
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Iāll add one more thought in regards to prospects for MLB consolidation trades-we tend to overrate our own around here, some of it supported by the diamonds in the rough that keep turning up and Brownās bonafides as a scout. That said, I disagree with folks like @Snake Diggity that our farm is just a few stolen 1st round draft picks from being a mid-tier farm. Almost everyone with any prospect sheen has major warts, too, and I think now is probably a good time to not be over precious about trading away youth. I really donāt see anyone below the MLB roster that should be considered untouchable.
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On this point, Iām struggling with why Schumer and Jeffries donāt re-orient around it aside from the fact that they are captured by the Dem billionaire donor class. The author kind of makes the same point, that you need to make a Bernie if you donāt have one. Everyoneās favorite whipping boy Ezra Klein made the point that if Schumer and Jeffries canāt make a pivot* then the Dems need to find new leadership. *to be fair, he was referring to using a shutdown threat for real leverage against Trump. I think his bigger point, however, is Schumer and Jeffries arenāt good war time consiglieres.
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Good Opinion piece in The NY Times today-āEat The Rich Is the Only Answerā TL:DR, Dems need to win back first priority economic voters and the way to do that is tackle issues like income inequality and the injustice of rich Americans enjoying too much of the bounty of US economic production. I know weāve talked about it here plenty, but I continue to be befuddled that it doesnāt get more play because itās very much the simple solution to breaking apart the MAGA coalition.
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I donāt want to re-sign him, either, but more than replacing his innings, we need a pitcher besides Brown that can reasonably expect to start in the playoffs. That usually means someone who can miss bats, and itās why the Dodgers have been filling up their roster with high strikeout pitchers while taking a chance on the injury prone. Iād kick the tires on Chris Sale, heck maybe even see if the Braves want to get out of that Spencer Strider contract. Dylan Cease is going to want all the money but Iād inquire there, too. Crediting @Wulaw Horn on this, but he wrote a year or so ago that the window was open as long as the Astros could turn out cheap starters, but unfortunately injuries have made all our in-house options unreliable bets for 2026.
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Gemini says 1 WAR in 2025 is worth about $8m, and Dubon is about to get a bump in his last year of arbitration eligibility. That said, heās 31 and most of that is for defense and ideally heās getting no more than 300 ABās (if that) as a infield sub. That makes me think thereās going to be little demand for him in the market at $7m, and even at that amount you maybe get a lotto ticket back as a prospect. Urias, for example, is basically Dubon at half the cost and his market (based on trade value) was a 19th round 2024 draftee pitcher in low A. Anyway, I think itās worth pointing that out because the Astros are very much as stars and scrubs team at the moment and thereās a number of Dubons that need to go the moment they cost more than a penny.
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Sanchez is actually an interesting comp for Jacob Melton. Both were athlete over skills prospects with platoon handicaps. I will be very surprised is Sanchez has much trade value going to his third team after that second half. I think itās more necessary to upgrade there than at second. Non-tender or trade Dubon, let Uriah play second and give Matthews a chance to either beat him out or see if he can play OF.
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Unfortunately thatās pretty emblematic of the Texas Dems; they āwork their asses offā so should be forgiven for failure. Or do you think that the Dems best path to power demands that someone, whose main credential is affiliation with a union representing less than 1% of Texans be listed among the top leaders of the party?
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Iām sure we have the same goals for making sure a certain fidelity to truth accompanies the news, Iām just trying to correct this conclusion that media consolidation is to blame. Itās a little like blaming horse and buggy manufacturer consolidation when the internal combustion auto has become popular. Who cares if thereās only two options for yesterdayās tech? In large part social media is shaping popular consensus, the national agenda, and itās where most marketing dollars are going, political and otherwise. If youāre worried about Disney pulling Kimmel off the air and that depriving his 1.6 million viewers of his anti-Trump views, youāre missing Theo Vonnās 4.6 million YouTube subscribers and many more listeners of his podcast. Also, the reason Iām belaboring this is because itās probably better than 50% of the reason the Dems lost in 2024. They have been habituated to mainstream media and thatās not where the majority of media consumers are anymore.
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