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statsman

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  1. Here are the Sagarin rating final regular season numbers: http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm Sagarin does a sophisticated least squares algorithm that has a goal of assigning a rating to teams that helps explain game outcomes, and therefore can predict potential game outcomes. Sagarin differentials correlate positively with Vegas point spreads and even outcomes. Texas is #2. We are half a point behind #1 NotreDame, meaning we would be half point dogs on a neutral field. That’s great for Texas, but to me, the interesting thing is the distribution at the top end of the scales. Looking at these for several years, usually the top teams have Sagarin ratings in the mid to high 90s. This year, the top teams are around 90. Does this mean there is more parity? I think so. I would attribute that to the portal, in that teams aren’t forced to go through seasons with flawed position groups, as they were before. also of note- five of the top 10 are SEC teams. Three are B1G. SMU is the lone ACC team in the top 10. The first B12 team comes in at 17.
  2. Why would BYU get in ahead of Alabama?
  3. Do we know which side of the bracket the Cotton Bowl is the semifinal for (which seeds feed it) and which side the Orange Bowl is the semifinal for?
  4. What was their reason for not allowing Bevo?
  5. Ha, ha…
  6. 25-18-1?
  7. ASU is in? Against BYU, unless they lose, in which case ISU and CU are next up?
  8. So, who is in the B12 CG?
  9. “Now, my team hasn’t ever done shit, and my conference hasn’t done shit, but teams that used to be in our conference are doing well in other conferences and other teams from the PAC are doing well in other conferences and, so…, context means nothing and all you should do for the CFP is watch the games and make a qualitative assessment!” That pretty much it? What if someone sneaks some Duncanville tape in there for the CFP to watch. Since we’re just watching the games…
  10. “Probable” does have a definition, specific for injury reports. It means “very likely to play”. A high ankle sprain is a more serious ankle sprain. He was diagnosed with it last Sunday, at the latest. These SEC injury reports are new this year. The league seems to want to have them. They are worthless if teams do not adhere to rules. If Texas knew Ewers had an ankle injury that was likely to keep him out, and reported him probable out of gamesmanship, you may think that’s a good idea. I doubt the conference does, though.
  11. After saying “probable” all week, I imagine Ewers almost has to play (to start) to avoid trouble with the league office.
  12. How in the hell does a team play in a conference CG in 2023, return 23 of 24 starters, including all the key ones, return a coaching staff intact, and go 0-9 in conference (after starting 3-0, with a win over a bowl eligible SEC team)? I thought the 1984 Longhorns had an incredible mid season collapse, but this may dwarf that.
  13. I think you’re underselling the Oklahoma economy. It’s not just meth. There is also stealing copper wire and selling it as scrap metal. Also, I Dian casinos. Also, legal cannabis products shops.
  14. I’m not sure what point you’re making. The B1G makes more money off tv than any other conference. A lot of that is due to the BTN, which is much more successful than any other conference’s. Is B1G fervor greater than the SEC’s? I doubt it. One thing I suspect, although I have no way of knowing if this is an official network metric: the B1G fanbase is more valued by advertisers than the SEC’s (or ACC’s or B12’s). Higher incomes, more wealth. The leader B12 games go to streaming. A conference network just wouldn’t have enough value to create. Baylor won the B12 in 2021. It seems like a third of their games are on streaming now. That is not a sign of health. The SEC has serious decisions to make- add a ninth game, and collect more media revenue, but possibly at the risk of jeapordizing the number of CFP participants (those losses have to go somewhere)? The B12? It has a contract through 2031. How to maintain?
  15. I am waiting for the “engineers” from Prometheus to come out and admit that humans (that they created) are the problem. To say that the Alien xenomorphs, created to be tools for exterminating sentient species, fail at killing humans, and the engineers are at a loss as to what to do.
  16. Please. Baylor at UH- 210k. Cincy at KSU- 369K. OSU at TCU- 355K. UCF at ASU- 378K. Note- each of these games involves at least one team representing a high population state. Remember what was said when the league made the adds? “Cincinnati is from a high population density part of Ohio! UH will bring the Houston market! UCF gets into Florida!”
  17. Oh, horseshit! Take a goddamned look at TV ratings of games between Minnesota and Illinois, or Michigan State and Iowa. Iowa State doesn’t sniff that in a B12 game unless they’re playing Colorado. https://www.sportsmediawatch.com/college-football-tv-ratings/ I see a B1G game between Purdue and Michigan State that was viewed by 1.8M. I see A Minnesota- Rutgers game viewed by 1.2M. I’m sorry, but the lower tier B1G and SEC programs that you enjoy claiming only have the good fortune of better associates actually bring more to the table. Maybe it’s demographics, maybe it’s more living alumni, who knows? Please stop saying that the lesser B1G programs are no better than B12 teams unless you can explain why so many more people want to watch their games.
  18. In the four team playoff, since 2014, the SEC teams are 13-6. The B1G is 5-5. The Big XII (mostly OU) was 1-6. The ACC was 6-5. The PAC was 2-3. ND was 0-2. I think the SEC and B1G have an argument for more teams.
  19. Couple of thoughts: Edmund Burke: “Rudeness is how the weak try to appear strong.” statsman: “If drinking isn’t a problem for you, it can be a solution.” Hang in there.
  20. Yeah, “cements” is too strong. “Supports” would have been better. Next season, FSU and Clemson will still believe they should be in a better league. I don’t know that they will have any more options than this year. The ACC is likely, like this year, to have better ratings than the B12 and more and stronger CFP aspirants than the B12. SMU? I can’t stand that program, for a lot of reasons, but it has a strategy for this era- use booster money to buy football success. Football success, not to improve the school’s brand (they don’t care), nor to increase local popularity (they don’t care), but simply to give those boosters some bragging rights. Dismiss them at your peril
  21. Klatt addressed this in his latest podcast (he is very good on these topics). He believes: 1. The CFP committee is absolutely ready to give a bye to Boise, no matter what happens in the B12 final weekends. 2. He believes it is possible that if Tulane wins out, and the B12 yields a chaos champ (4 loss TT or Baylor), Tulane could pass them and leave the B12 entirely out of the CFP. He believes that if BYU, ISU, KSU or CU win it, the committee will jump the champ over Tulane, putting them in the CFP. Klatt, for reasons personal (Buff grad) and professional, is pro-B12. He calls it a “flat” conference- no one is too high or low wrt peers. That’s great for Saturday game competitiveness but awful for other reasons: -Conferences always have to look ahead to the next media contract. Being compared to the AAC and MW, instead of the B1G and SEC, is bad for business. -If the ACC gets two teams in, as looks possible/probable, it cements their status as the third best conference. FSU and Clemson struggles also help stabilize the ACC. -The B12 has existed for almost 30 years. Six of the 16 are original members. Eight of the 16 have belonged for two seasons or less. It badly needs cohesiveness.
  22. I think the CFP committee is sending a message. The message is that the B12 rep is pissing them off. Maybe he hogs the snacks. Maybe he smells bad.
  23. That’s the 2013 game? Tying together all today’s threads… Three games earlier, Texas was embarrassed by Taysom Hill and Manny Diaz was fired. Mack was told the boosters were pissed and done with him. He said, “You won’t have to fire me. I’ll do the right thing and quit if I am done here.” The next week, Texas lost at home To Ole Miss by three TDs. The next week, Texas beat KSU. While everyone was speculating about who the next coach would be, Mack amended his stance to “If we don’t win the conference, I’ll move along”. That damned ISU game could have put Texas at 2-3, if the refs had ruled that a fumble and TD return. Even with fucking Stoops starting Blake Bell at QB, gifting a RRS win, we could have avoided the late season nonsense of Mack “saving his job” (his claim at season end was that by playing for the conference in the final game against Baylor, he had saved his job), and gotten on with the search earlier. Dammit
  24. They will have to break form from the Snyder model of program building, that so many B12 schools adopted. The other part of the problem is getting good P4 programs scheduled. The best programs don’t want to go on the road to play in. 45k seat stadium. Edited- “Jinx, Mitch”
  25. Probably. Still, we may not have this talk every year, but it will happen again. It does no good for the Big XII to keep being compared to the Mountain West or AAC, instead of SEC or B1G. The best thing the B12 has going for it is its media revenue (although worst of the so called P4). The second best thing it has going for it is that its contract is for seven more years. There is a really good chance that the next contract is a big disappointment.
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