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Hefeweizen

Certifiably Surly
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Everything posted by Hefeweizen

  1. You might be right, but I’d just as soon pass on that work as do it for the reduced price. One of the benefits of working for private and public clients. I knew multi family had been there but I don’t touch those projects. It is the first clear sign to me that there is real fear that they are having to reduce prices further than just buying down mortgage rates and throw in extra incentives. I also know a couple of developers who are really slowing down new lot delivery because builders willingness to pay top dollar per front foot is dropping.
  2. I can tell you one of the big home builders is telling all their vendors to bend over and reduce prices right now. Because I just told them to fuck off on a proposal they sent me back with redlines. Times are about to get real fucking interesting.
  3. I’m not sure I agree with your detective work there.
  4. You already went CR dude. But that’s ok because macroeconomics is woke.
  5. Everyone in California is sick of Gavin’s shit. Go away douchenozzle.
  6. Bessent just said he’s comfortable with some disruptions. We’re in for a rough ride when the government is talking down the market.
  7. You’re high if you think china will do anything for TSLA. He’s going to get a government bailout. China is way ahead in EV among other areas. BYD is cheaper by like 70 percent already?
  8. I don’t fly southwest unless absolutely unavoidable. But I also don’t check bags usually. Between FAA shenanigans and the general unpleasantness of flying I prefer to drive if it’s within 500 miles. Alaska airlines is everything Southwest isn’t anymore- cheap, efficient, and no bs. I like them when I have to fly.
  9. No, guy next to me had it and it looked great but I did the Katsu with curry, and it was awesome. I’ll be back in a few weeks and will likely hit it again.
  10. That’s the place I had lunch today! Top notch.
  11. In SD for a day, and it rained, hard, most of the day. Hit the maritime museum which I had never done before and it’s fantastic. Great lunch at a katsu place in Clairemont. Great city, wonderful place to visit. I love the flight down from Monterey, it only takes a bit over an hour.
  12. Just getting started. There is no positive news to get this back on track for a while. No CR. Meaning, no continuing resolution.
  13. Headed to between below 20. That’s about a thirty percent decrease. Lots of room to run imo.
  14. I think chefs call that “velveting”.
  15. I would think driving one of those turds is punishment enough.
  16. And still overvalued by a factor of five.
  17. Yeah that’s a bald faced lie. Blips are no big deal but a real retreat in equities is going to panic the broligarchy. Their wealth is in the market by and large.
  18. Amazon is really going down the tubes. Most everything I’ve price checked is cheaper on Walmart these days. Walmart does free shipping over 35 bucks, and prime video really isn’t worth much for the free tier with ads. I may not renew prime again despite my college age kids loving the convenience.
  19. The GLP makers seem to have something the US is going to buy a lot of… we’ll see how it works out. I don’t begrudge anyone staying heavy in US equity but right now I think it’s tremendously overvalued. My US equity exposure is all in value mutual funds because I think they’re slightly less susceptible to the burst coming to the AI bubble.
  20. Not really. Tariff are fucking whipsawing the market. You’re welcome to put anyone on ignore if you don’t want to read about it.
  21. At the outset of this clown show I moved from an 80/20 equity and bond fund allocation to 45 percent value equity, 35 percent international, and 20 percent cash. International equities are trading at comparatively low valuations and I think are positioned for relative growth in the next five years. Feeling pretty good about that decision a month in.
  22. Worst trade war ever. Phony war deluxe. The markets fucking hate this shit worse than anything ever seen before, is making big burly stockholders get teary eyed.
  23. I can’t see a scenario where they give up the sweet DOD lucre they’ve been milking from the teat. I think the assignment of IP is quite possible and setting up a related party at arms length (haha) is how I’d try approach it.
  24. Mexico going to massacre our stonks? Thanks Obama.
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