1. the retail federation is a national survey. the common crime claim is for west coast cities - SF, LA, etc. and gee, looky here at the trend.
2. saying only 37% of shrinkage is due to external theft does not dispute anything. to dispute there is increased in retail theft, you'd have to show that 37% shrinkage reduce over time. and moreover, 37% still represents the HIGHEST source of shrinkage.
So did the retail federation really contradict claims of retail theft and crime? let's see what they actually say - you can read it yourself: https://cdn.nrf.com/sites/default/files/2023-09/NRF_National_Retail_Security_Survey_2023.pdf
The trend of the shift from lower shrinkages (<1.24%), increasing to higher level shrinkages (2-3%)
the net national change for survey retailers increasing 0.2% represents $20 billion. no biggie.
(and the original point is that the spike in theft was endemic to california, not a nationalwide phenomenon)