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52-80

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Everything posted by 52-80

  1. Zuck is a pretty serious operator. FB looks superficially like a mess of spam, but things like Marketplace is a big hit. Their advertising revenue per user keeps growing and growing, even during what looks to lay people as the twilight period of their primary product. He had already announced 2 years ago about starting a "year of efficiency", and did a big cut then, so this current workforce reduction was coming from miles away. Their operating expenses had been on a steady decline. Since then, profitability went up 3x. They're putting tons of money now into infrastructure for AI and VR, so this will go into offsetting that spending.
  2. UVIX isn't something you want to hold long term. It's an extreme short term hedge, and sub-optimal on any longer timescale because it suffers volatility drag which erodes value as markets stays flats, or , ironically , the volatility (its target) itself is volatile. (UVIX holds VIX futures and as those contracts wobble it'll hurt the rebalancing). If you're skittish, rather than buy hedges, short term rates are attractive to park your cash. <1Yr bond yields above 4% with minimal duration risk, so money market account can give you something similar. I bought SPY put spreads before the new year, "expecting" a come down from santa rally, and those monetized really well. New cash is waiting for end of Q1 (typical lull in seasonality) and settling in of new administration before buying in the market. Also, don't listen to me because I sold off PLTR in 30s.
  3. I own Tobacco (Altria). The business is going anywhere, they print profit, and it just gets pumped out as dividends. Have some energy and utilities and other old-world economy stuff that doesn't have attractive name appeal for price appreciation but they keep rolling in the earnings.
  4. is there any bear rape?
  5. Wait why cant you throw the ball 20 yards
  6. the same way if i came back to UT and beat out bijan robinson: impossible
  7. 52-80

    Gunnar Helm

    IMO if you clowned all over an opposing player like that and DONT taunt him, that should be a penalty
  8. VY’s thread lasted 15 years since he last wore orange so the answer to this question is a big NO
  9. Hes played with 4 NFL backs: bijan, jb, roschon, keilan; 4 NFL receivers: worthy, whitt, AD, JT…not counting Gunnar who’ll go also. In year 1 all 9 of those guys were on the roster at the same time. Since colts time, theres been a total of 5 offensive players drafted, and thats counting Geoff Swaim. Unfortunately quinn is the teams ceiling, not its floor.
  10. Quinn ewers, one of the longhorns quarterbacks of all-time.
  11. Sam Ehlinger on this team, would he have gone further last year and this?
  12. Inside every Texas fan there are 2 wolves:
  13. i have something to confess: i've been watching college sports for a while but i still dont know what a buckeye is
  14. Using reinsurance isnt a regulatory requirement. Also, wouldn’t the reinsurance be dampened as they only have a portion of the exposure of the originating underwriters. 10 companies transfer a small slice their risk to you - 1 of them (in Florida) go bust, but you priced it right, and have the capital base to support it.
  15. Yes, sure, and differences in flora and tons of other factors too. I’m saying the differences in human action such as forest maintenance probably is a way bigger determinant in fire spark and spread than the 0.5c or so increase in mean temperature from the last decade+. Like if it starts to sprinkle and you drive 150mph and wreck, its factually true that the road got wetter and is statistically more dangerous, but that wasn’t the main cause of the crash.
  16. Texas has twice the forestry of California and it is hotter every day of the year and the LA area specifically received more rainfall in the last 2 years than it has in over a decade, but whos counting
  17. When insurance companies fail, they get liquidated and go into receivership. The companies owners/shareholders lose all their equity. If they are found at-cause for negligence/misconduct, they are liable for further legal claims. Normally, claimants get recovery through the Guaranty Associations - this is like the insurance version of FDIC. Those funds come from contributions paid out by the insurers themselves, not external “socialized” sources. Many recent examples alone of UPC, FedNat, SoFi, all operating in Florida and going out of business after the hurricanes. None were “bailed out”. UPC actually tried to exit the market but Ian hit them and took them out. Due to heightened hurricane risk, property insurance is very high in Florida….which should be the case in Cali except they werent allowed to.
  18. State Farm also reduced/pulled its coverage from California. It declined coverage renewal (with advance notice) on 70k properties last year, citing heightened risk they were restricted from being compensated for. https://newsroom.statefarm.com/update-on-california/ https://newsroom.statefarm.com/state-farm-general-insurance-company-california-new-business-update/ State Farm had already lost $5B in their home insurance business in 2023, contributing to a $6B total loss. Importantly, State Farm is a mutual insurance company. The customers jointly "own" the business. There is no shadowy, passive, external figure receiving dividend checks from the retained earnings. Maybe the legislative policy handicapping their ability to charge for risk commensurately has something to do with it, you think?
  19. I don't find it typical that close subordinates to exec management subvert or resist the commitments announced in periodic releases. They're news to the investing public, but will have already been planned and bought-in internally. They're often pitched by the subordinates after all. These folks may temper the overselling that occurs in the calls, sure. But it's not a magic reverse uno card to argue 'your ceo said the company is streamlining internal tooling to save cost but you're still using this expensive and complex multi-vendor solution'. Things sell on merit, on economics, on goodwill and backscratching ('this deal will make you look good'). The im-telling-your-dad approach doesnt strike me as something effective, IME anyway. I had a kid and switched into products with minimal traveling required, but I do miss the sales world a bit. Extreme freedom and clear objectives: you can do pretty much whatever you want, so long as you meet the numbers!
  20. when i was in enterprise sales i had a large book and a full team working under me and they werent voracious financials-readers. the job is relationship based with a lot of persistence and process. its obviously good to have broad knowledge of your customer, but there was no meaningful edge to digest the minutiae from a dry quarterly filing. could you give me an example of one?like, you find out a company retired some outstanding bonds and opened a new untapped revolver loc so they should have more cashflow and you can charge them more money for cloud storage? the level of client-knowledge they work with is either major news that is already very public, or things they learn from the client that is too specific/immaterial to be disclosed in such broad filings.
  21. He's also practiced mixed martial arts and attended ufc event for years. And he smells the tides turning.
  22. Congrats to your wife. I don't know any other sales person that does that due diligence. That said, she'll find more 'color' about the companies focus on the earnings presentations and transcripts than in the dry Q/Ks. For my personal curiosity and investment decisions I sniff through them, mostly studying the financial tables and commentary on specific sections of my interest. There's not going to be valuable information hidden in there that other people won't have uncovered anyway. Much of the text in the 10K are boilerplate descriptions, and not material news. Some analysts use PDF Compare feature to scan for changes in the text from year to year.
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