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gmr548

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Everything posted by gmr548

  1. This is one of the consistently weirdest phenomena on this site.
  2. Also on the topic of polling, Split Ticket did a poll and accompanying piece on young voters: https://split-ticket.org/2024/03/27/we-polled-young-voters-heres-what-we-found/
  3. I want to believe this, which means I find myself extremely skeptical. To play devils advocate: Polls have indeed missed pretty significantly in both elections with Trump on the ballot - that's true! Both misses were large and... in favor of Trump. Polls were pretty accurate in 2018 and 2022 midterms, where Democrats were also murdering the GOP in special elections. One could easily conclude that presidential election polling is struggling because it can't capture the low propensity voters that tend to lean Trump. Why is that wrong?
  4. Weird, in my experience your wife is pretty into backside approaches.
  5. They were. The people missing are the road work crew. Two found, several still missing. Because it happened at 2am and there was construction going on, which enabled closure to traffic very quickly when the ship put out a mayday. Well, I'm going to hell.
  6. You must not remember renewing last year.
  7. Ironically I wasgoing to say that's not funny and looks like the lazy MAGA boomer memes.
  8. Yep, and that is not Sydir Mitchell even at his theoretical peak. January is probably the closest thing to being that guy. Love that he is impressing early. Be sure to tell them how important it is to win the spring game too. Agreed. The conference schedule is only difficult this year because of the way the timing falls with OU/Georgia back to back, and the two hillbilly holy wars at Arkansas and A&M within three weeks in November. Texas is probably only an underdog to Georgia in conference play, and a very slight one. In terms of overall quality, this season's eight-game SEC schedule is roughly on par with a nine-game Big 12 schedule, and that's only because Georgia's legitimately a different animal. The rest of it? Whatever. Texas has had plenty of good DL come through and has had plenty of good DL units since 2010. DLs also don't play each other. What this line of logic would indicate needs an upgrade - and they have very clearly looked at it that way - is the OL.
  9. In a desirable inner loop neighborhood like Timbergrove I buy that you can spend $2k or more on a 2BR apartment but you can also find cheaper. Of course, then you get into subjective criteria like quality of the unit or the demographic of the property when thinking about whether you actually want to live there, which can vary wildly between different people and properties. And Timbergorve is mostly SFH anyway so not necessarily a ton of rentals to go around and those are more expensive. My two cents, Montrose, River Oaks, and Rice Village are probably the only neighborhoods where I'd say you're really lucky if you find something < $1k/person. Otherwise, there's still stuff out there. To your point plenty of it may not necessarily be up to standard for higher income renters but for a 20-something just getting started and moving to TX for that first job, coming from a VHCOL market, or stuff like that, there are options that are going to look decent in most neighborhoods in Houston still.
  10. You can't call Houston a global mega city and DFW a huge suburb. DFW is bigger and growing faster than Houston, and this: is closer to truth than fiction. There are obviously some cultural and environmental differences but DFW and Houston share like 90% of their DNA. You can draw parallels down to the neighborhood in the urban cores of Dallas and Houston. I'm sure that goes over real well in Collin County lol maybe take a look at the source on the graphic
  11. I am both a Houston renter and in multifamily real estate by trade, and you're misinformed on this one. Hence my use of qualifiers. There are always exceptions to rules.
  12. I don't necessarily disagree, I just don't see a lot more to be gotten out of Broughton given his physical profile. Sweat wasn't thought of as an Outland type at this time last year, but everyone knew he had the tools to be really good if he locked in and was excited about him coming back.
  13. Not necessarily true. Vast majority of people that relocate across state lines (or choose not to, for that matter) are driven by household economics (cost of living, job/educational, opportunity, whatever) or family dynamics. Politics is typically a secondary/tertiary concern if it registers at all. "Voting with your feet" is, for the most part, a privilege of the class of people who are probably going to be fine wherever they go. Between that and the age issue the base case on this should be that most young people moving here probably fall somewhere between "well, the politics kinda suck but I can get a room in a 2BD apartment < $1,000 and still live in a major city with jobs and shit to do" and complete political disengagement.
  14. They may be right, but I remember similar concerns about T'vondre Sweat and to a lesser degree, Byron Murphy as well. There's not a T'Vondre Sweat on the roster. That's what it really boils down to. The duo of Sweat and Murphy isn't going to be replaced because that was generational excellence but when you throw that comparison out the window it looks less dire. Collins has quietly been pretty good the past couple years. I imagine he will play well with starter's snaps this year. Sounds like Bledsoe is coming along. Broughton is a serviceable rotation piece - nothing more, but nothing less either. I'm not super worried about the 3-tech spot unless it's a rash of injuries. I imagine Savea gets first crack at nose and he should be serviceable against most of the schedule. Will be a problem against Michigan and Georgia. Big spring/off season for Sydir Mitchell; if Texas is to reach its full potential this year he's going to have to give 15 good snaps a game. This position will be priority one in the summer portal window. It's the biggest flaw on the team both in terms of quality and numbers. Aaron Bryant is out there too. I honestly can't remember if they've worked him more at nose or 3 tech but he's another 300-pound body.
  15. George Santos accusing literally anyone else in the world of lying and swindling their voter base is something. Imagine being dumb enough to buy this.
  16. Fingers crossed. I've mostly lurked on this thread but I know you've been through it. I know it's frustrating but if you can end up with more or less a lateral move after this entire saga, it is a win.
  17. They are both going to be fantastic pros. Marvin Harrison JR, okay, but after that I don't see a huge delta between them and guys like Odunze or the LSU pair that are getting mocked well above them. Someone is going to get a fucking steal with Worthy in the second round if these mocks are right.
  18. Trump got like 75MM votes in 2020 and probably isn't going to shed a ton of support.
  19. Okay but trivia pulls mad hoes tho. Speaking of trivia, Texas State of all places has one of the top applied geography programs in the country. One of my best UT geography professors once told us, regarding graduate school "if you want to toil in academia, UT is good. If you want a job, go to Texas State." Depending on what track you take there are some legit career opportunities out of a geography program. I know folks in environmental/natural resource management, energy, GIS, urban planning/landscape architecture, and commercial real estate. You can of course go teach K-12 social studies too. My early career path looked like Case McCoy at Kyle Field, but I ended up in commercial real estate and ended up on a solid track. Was coming out of a contract GIS gig when I was hired as an entry level analyst and that technical element was a differentiator. Now that I've moved up I rarely use GIS or my geography major in an explicit sense, but I'll say spatial intelligence in general seems pretty rare and the amount of people who struggle to think spatially in an industry where the number one rule is "location, location, location" consistently surprises me. All that said there's definitely a fluffy liberal arts degree element to it though. That's absolutely a track to take too. +1 geography to CRE. We're a minority but anecdotally I'd guess geography or urban planning is the most common non-finance degree in the field. Seems like lots of GIS folks want to stay in that box, and that's how you max out at like $75kyear. But when you branch out into development, database management, etc. you can make some real money on that side of things. And of course there are opportunities in real estate.
  20. It makes sense because of the former point. Biden has such a ridiculous cash advantage that deploying resources in FL/TX/NC (I was big on Democrats in NC in 2020 and I want to be again with migration trends but the polls look terrible for Biden) and making Trump play defense has as much or more utility as swamping the six Biden swing states *that* much more. Diminishing returns and all that. Not to mention he has so much cash that it's not really a trade off. Expanding the map is probably the best way to get to 270 EVs. You make Trump play defense and improve your chances in the swing states you won last time. And if you happen to win TX or FL, election is over. Yeah I'm pretty optimistic on WI. Democratic base has been consistently engaged there over the past four years and now they have an opportunity to reset the landscape in the state legislature. I cannot fathom an enthusiasm gap with the base there, and we know how the suburbs feel about Trump.
  21. Can't actually book through Google Flights, it just shows pricing across all the different platforms.
  22. Prior to Israel I'd have considered him the best POTUS of my lifetime (starting, technically, with Bush 1 but I really don't remember much before Bush 2 second term) without serious competition. That may still be the case but I'd have to think about that now.
  23. Yeah this won't be aimed at business travelers using corporate platforms. It's aimed at individual consumers using third party sites, and at the Chase and Amex travels of the world offering big incentives to book through their portals. I know Expedia handles those on the back end so it will be interesting to see if they qualify.
  24. In general I've found the floor for food quality is higher in Mexico. Obviously there is a lot of fast food in both countries, but beyond that the low end in the USA is so goddamn saturated with chains and over-processed food.
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