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This came up with some guys at work. Leave stuff like it sits or move it to some safe account for this crap?

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MHO, if you try to move it now you will end up missing the rebound. 

That was my thinking as well, but I don’t really mess with the stuff.

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The "Markets falling: Wahoo" thread over in Bada Bing is a good place to pose your question.

Didn’t even think about heading over there. I’ll try that.

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If you have a long time to recover, say 10 years, before retirement, just leave it.

Pretty much too late anyway.

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1 hour ago, RoundRobin said:

MHO, if you try to move it now you will end up missing the rebound. 

that is what Wall St tells you to do.  And since they never advise you to sell under any circumstance, the "don't sell into a downturn" is suspect.  They need passive investors to stay passive.

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Posted (edited)

That isn't really what Wall Street tells you to do.

It's what off-street tells you to do.  Bogle, Buffett, Lynch.

Wall Street makes money off transactions, not growth or dividends.  They probably don't want you pulling out of the market entirely, though.

Edited by TwiceHorn

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NOT too late to get a chunk into MM accounts. I moved all 529s last week because those have much less time to recover (age dependent). Also moved a rollover ira into MM for less total equity exposure across all my retirement accounts.

How do you think Christmas will go this year? If you believe fundamentals matter at all anymore, this market is going to suck until q2 2021.

Dow is about 21,100 right now, fyi as a reference for posterity...

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Not sure how many bear markets and crashes I’ve been through in my professional career that started in 1984, but it’s been several. I’ve yet to sell any stock or mutual fund during a downturn or near a high. I don’t see any reason to change my strategy now. I’m around 10 years away from retirement age.

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48 minutes ago, HouTex said:

Not sure how many bear markets and crashes I’ve been through in my professional career that started in 1984, but it’s been several. I’ve yet to sell any stock or mutual fund during a downturn or near a high. I don’t see any reason to change my strategy now. I’m around 10 years away from retirement age.

I think it's a mistake to have everything in the market right now.  now perhaps the worst of the damage is done but do you really believe that we've seen the worst part of this crisis from an economic viewpoint?

 

 

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I think it's a mistake to have everything in the market right now.  now perhaps the worst of the damage is done but do you really believe that we've seen the worst part of this crisis from an economic viewpoint?
 
 

The problem is that my crystal ball is broken. You can never know when the bottom or the top is. When it rebounds when do you get back in? Last year I was up 30%. Many people I know were saying 2019 would be a down year with some predictions of recession. Indeed, the last economic news of a couple of weeks ago was fabulous before the virus panic. So if i had been out of the market last year i would not have had that gain. There’s a huge risk for being out of the market. You miss a couple of huge 5-8% up days and you’ve lost a great opportunity. So I just let it ride and it’s worked out very well. One can say this time is different. They say that every time. This too shall pass.

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Posted (edited)

We haven't seen the bottom yet,  ALSO a lot of 401K fund/stock activity is time limited, in that you can't get back into some funds for 30 days for example.  I came very close to taking a pretty big risk and shifting a big chunk into my wife's company stock because I see a huge upside after the darkness.  But risky in putting anything in a single place.  For the average guy simply ride it out.  OR conversely you could boost even further your 401K contributions to get a greater percentage of your holdings during this downturn.  IF you can spare the cash.

MY personal opinion is that the market is going to be fuck city next tuesday or wednesday and I am hoping that might be a bottom.  As I feel that when the raw numbers start getting digested the enormous gravity of the situation will be even better defined.  As well as the inadequate preparation become shocking clear when the videos of overrun hospitals are contrasted with the "we are doing an amazing job." Press conferences.

That's sort of when i was considering putting my toe in.  We could fall for months but I am hoping long term players may come back in then to support the market. But who the fuck knows.

Edited by horn4life

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1 hour ago, HouTex said:


The problem is that my crystal ball is broken. You can never know when the bottom or the top is. When it rebounds when do you get back in? Last year I was up 30%. Many people I know were saying 2019 would be a down year with some predictions of recession. Indeed, the last economic news of a couple of weeks ago was fabulous before the virus panic. So if i had been out of the market last year i would not have had that gain. There’s a huge risk for being out of the market. You miss a couple of huge 5-8% up days and you’ve lost a great opportunity. So I just let it ride and it’s worked out very well. One can say this time is different. They say that every time. This too shall pass.

I learned my lesson in 2008. Don't listen to what the experts are recommending, do what the experts themselves are doing.  And you identify that by the direction of the crashing market. They're selling and they're happy that you don't. Many investors are out of the market now.  A good time to get back in is when the passive retirement accounts start to sell out of fear. I expect that to be next month when quarterly personal statements are sent out. And I guarantee I won't time it perfectly which is ok.

I took a huge hit today too but it's less than half I would have taken if I didn't sell half of my 401k a few weeks ago. (It's still there but in low risk bonds & treasury notes.)  I plan to slowly buy back in whether the drop continues or miraculously goes back up.

If the market bounces back tomorrow, it might be a good opportunity to sell SOME of your portfolio. Lock in gains through 2017. But perhaps it is too late for some to sell now. You've lost 3 years of gains in a few weeks. What's another 3 years, right?

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I'm just glad I get to fund my 401k/Keogh plan in the next 30 days--that's when our firm does it.  It will be invested in several different TR Price funds.  

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There are some pretty amazing studies that show what happens if you miss the best days in a rebound / recovery.  

The odds of picking the bottom are so slim and the cost of missing out on the best days is so high that if you have the proper time horizon then staying invested makes mathematical sense.

Even missing the best 5 or 10 days has dramatically decreased  performance for  long term investors.

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If you think there is a more than likely a chance to see the s&p 500 at 2000 before 3000, it’s better to sell some tomorrow. Not all.  Some of you retirement funds.  You’re reducing risk.  If you’re wrong with that bet and everything goes back to normal next week, you miss out on some relatively small gains.  If you’re right about some big drops ahead, you set yourself up for massive gains in a few years with the recovery in a few years.

i think it comes down to whether you think the market has already priced in massive global unemployment and lower GDPs.

 

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On the idea that getting out of the market will cause you to miss out on the large increase days. Yes, 100% true. However since you’re not day trading, the only number that matters is the longer trend not individual days.

there have been some crazy positive days in the past month but we’re down a large percentage in the s&p?  With perfect (now) hindsight you would have been happy to miss those 6% gain days if you had stayed out.

if you’re an older retirement investor (40+) and scared on the idea of selling, sell slowly. 5% per week. Lock in some gains you’ve experienced over the past decade. If you’re 25, I agree my thoughts here don’t matter since your balance is much lower.

I would also be 100% clear on your plans rules in buying back in. If you sell a fund and buy back that exact fund too soon, they can place trading restrictions on you. Retirement accounts don’t like frequent trades. It’s not impossible just requires more thought.

(disclaimer: I’m just a guy on the internet not an expert. I agree you can’t perfectly time the market. Do what’s best for you, not what I say)

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You going to sell your mineral rights because the price of a barrel oil has gone  down?

Didnt think so. 

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