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Joe Lunardi's Bracketology


shadow_operative
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itll be interesting to see how this changes over the next 2-3 months. i think we'll be a 4 seed (barring injury) in the end, but there's a lot of basketball to be played.

also, U of H and Tennessee in a 4 vs 5 matchup? jesus.  aside from the fact houston and tennessee are ranked no.'s 3 and 15 respectively in kenpom (4 vs 5 matchup? that's like when they made us play Arizona in 2011 when we were no.3 in kenpom and got a 4 seed who had to play Oakland and Zona. (i'm clearly still not over it.)), to the fact that it would be an absolute street brawl of a game. it would be nowhere near the prettiest games of the tournament, but it might be the game that most resembles two grizzly bears fighting to the death. i'd be highly intrigued. 

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, shadow_operative said:

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itll be interesting to see how this changes over the next 2-3 months. i think we'll be a 4 seed (barring injury) in the end, but there's a lot of basketball to be played.

also, U of H and Tennessee in a 4 vs 5 matchup? jesus.  aside from the fact houston and tennessee are ranked no.'s 3 and 15 respectively in kenpom (4 vs 5 matchup? that's like when they made us play Arizona in 2011 when we were no.3 in kenpom and got a 4 seed who had to play Oakland and Zona. (i'm clearly still not over it.)), to the fact that it would be an absolute street brawl of a game. it would be nowhere near the prettiest games of the tournament, but it might be the game that most resembles two grizzly bears fighting to the death. i'd be highly intrigued. 

I will never get over a 30 win double conference-champion SMU team getting a 6 seed and being forced to play a USC team in the first round that we had already lost to that year. 

Thanks, NCAA. 

Edited by ztejas
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i think a 3 seed is more likely our ceiling, but barring injury i really don't see us as anything worse than a 6 seed, which itself would surprise me. i feel like 3-6 is the range, with a 4 or 5 being most likely. Beard teams tend to get better as the season goes on, and so far so good on that front. 

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, jimmyjazz said:

Texas playing Temple was a double screwjob.

We were a 6 seed that year with a 3 seed resume.  Plus Temple as the first round draw.  That was some bullshit.

The Tristan Thompson team getting a 4 seed though was still the worst.  We were in the top 10 of the polls for the last 2 months straight of that season.  We lost 3 out of 4 games at one point late in the season, but we still ended the year getting to the final of the Big 12 tourney before losing to Kansas (who I think finished the year number 1 overall).  It wasn’t like we were entering the tourney in disarray.

If you looked at our resume for the whole season, we were clearly a 2 seed that year.   Instead we get a 4, and Arizona was our 5 even though they should have also been a 2 seed (they won the PAC 12 and finished 30-8, had the number 2 pick in the draft plus other NBA players, etc.).

The seeding sucked in general that year.   I think that was still back when the committee was determined that all two dozen Big East teams must be amazing every year no matter what.

Edited by longhornmatt
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6 minutes ago, shadow_operative said:

i think a 3 seed is more likely our ceiling, but barring injury i really don't see us as anything worse than a 6 seed, which itself would surprise me. i feel like 3-6 is the range, with a 4 or 5 being most likely. Beard teams tend to get better as the season goes on, and so far so good on that front. 

I mean... if we go like 15-3 and make the tournament final I could see us nabbing a 2. We'd have to finish over one of KU or Baylor with maybe a 1-1 split with both. 

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15 minutes ago, longhornmatt said:

We were a 6 seed that year with a 3 seed resume.  Plus Temple as the first round draw.  That was some bullshit.

The Tristan Thompson team getting a 4 seed though was still the worst.  We were in the top 10 of the polls for the last 2 months straight of that season.  We lost 3 out of 4 games at one point late in the season, but we still ended the year getting to the final of the Big 12 tourney before losing to Kansas (who I think finished the year number 1 overall).  It wasn’t like we were entering the tourney in disarray.

If you looked at our resume for the whole season, we were clearly a 2 seed that year.   Instead we get a 4, and Arizona was our 5 even though they should have also been a 2 seed (they won the PAC 12 and finished 30-8, had the number 2 pick in the draft plus other NBA players, etc.).

The seeding sucked in general that year.   I think that was still back when the committee was determined that all two dozen Big East teams must be amazing every year no matter what.

drawing Oakland in the first round was an insult as well. Oakland is a basketball school, and someone you never want to see as your first round opponent in a 4/13 game. as i said, we were no.4 overall in kenpom heading into that tourney, and even after the tourney ended we were still 5th in kenpom, which is insane for a team that lost in the second round. look at this idiocy:

 

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Posted (edited)

Houston is 3 in the NET, while Texas is 11th. Lunardi fucking sucks at seeding, but usually gets the teams right. Texas has 3 games left with KSU(90) and OSU(75), after that they only play teams currently in the top 46 Net. Plenty of chances to rack up some Quad 1 wins.

Edited by HtownHorn
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18 hours ago, ztejas said:

I mean... if we go like 15-3 and make the tournament final I could see us nabbing a 2. We'd have to finish over one of KU or Baylor with maybe a 1-1 split with both. 

Remaining conf record 13-3. Like you said with 4 games vs KU/Baylor, would mean they split and get a win against one of them. Plus Conf Tourney wins, would put them at something like 27(28 w Tenn win)-5 with a resume of wins over potential ranked opponents (KU or Bay, 2 vs Iowa St, 2 vs Tech, and another possible vs Tenn). That's pretty solid, imo! 2/3 seed very likely

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