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Anastasis

"Easy" Money Come Election Day (Prediction Market Gambling)

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PreditIt has taken a big right swing over the past few days.  Anything can happen but you can get a 20% return if you believe trump cannot win the popular vote. Based on today’s numbers that seems like guaranteed money. 

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Trump is way too divisive to win the popular vote. 
 

He still lost the popular vote to Clinton who is a much worse candidate than Biden.

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There’s absolutely no way trump wins the popular vote. If you can get 80-20 on that then the whole site is fucked up and easy money. 

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It’s just a guess, but I think people are buying GOP shares because they are GOP homers who are hoping there will be a trump bump. The comment section on all of those markets is disgusting, filled with losers who talk about Biden being a massive socialist.

when new polling comes out, they will probably have to backtrack because I doubt Trump receives a huge RNC bump.

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Some democrat sunshine pumpers have raised Doug Jones' chances. Republican (Tuberville) dropped from 91 to 87 yesterday.  You're not going to get rich but not a bad return for a ~2-3 month investment.

Other items that surprise me:

  • Trump winning the popular vote still at 20
  • But Dems (Biden) winning by more than 10.5% is at 15.  I really can't see Biden winning by that, at least today.
  • From above, that Biden will drop out at 10-11 by November.  

 

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I slept too long on the Biden to win popular vote. Although it's basically free money. There's zero chance he doesn't win the raw vote count by at least a couple million.

This one seems like almost free money as well, betting "no" obviously. I can't find a single state that he has a reasonable chance to compete in. 

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6724/Will-Donald-Trump-win-any-state-he-lost-in-2016

 

The only gotcha seems to be Maine. The prop says that it's based on popular vote. Hillary won Maine's popular vote last time while they split the EVs. She only won by 22,000. So I guess Trump could plausibly win the vote there. That's literally his only chance for that prop to hit.

 

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12 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

I slept too long on the Biden to win popular vote. Although it's basically free money. There's zero chance he doesn't win the raw vote count by at least a couple million.

This one seems like almost free money as well, betting "no" obviously. I can't find a single state that he has a reasonable chance to compete in. 

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6724/Will-Donald-Trump-win-any-state-he-lost-in-2016

 

The only gotcha seems to be Maine. The prop says that it's based on popular vote. Hillary won Maine's popular vote last time while they split the EVs. She only won by 22,000. So I guess Trump could plausibly win the vote there. That's literally his only chance for that prop to hit.

 

Biden has been polling well in Maine. I wonder if NH could maybe flip to Trump given the relatively low number of voters. 

To be clear, I don't think NH will do this but just talking from viewpoint what state could potentially flip.

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Woman elected VP at 59 cents seems pretty undervalued.

If you're looking for an underdog at a nice price, you can get No Republican (i.e. Jamie Harrison) in South Carolina Senate for 25 cents.

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9 minutes ago, GopherRock said:

Woman elected VP at 59 cents seems pretty undervalued.

This seems to go hand in hand with the POTUS win. Since they have "bet" limits, this is way to double up on Trump or Biden.  I imagine this was slightly higher before Pence was officially selected on the off chance Haley was chosen.

I took a big chance on the AK Senate race because the Dem nominee was fighting to be listed as an Ind on the ballot. The AK election office decided he would be listed Dem so my bet for an Ind to win is done.  I was getting big odds and I didn't put down much.

Edited by Nice Guy Eddie

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I like that "state lost" bet, as well as stacking the woman VP bet.  I am playing the POTUS election by stack multiple markets to increase exposure.   

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6 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

I like that "state lost" bet, as well as stacking the woman VP bet.  I am playing the POTUS election by stack multiple markets to increase exposure.   

My strategy has been to load up on what I think are easy bets with lower payouts. Arbitrage type of bet. 80-88 range.  But I want to start adding in more educated bets that will actually pay off.  If I end up making some bad bets, the overall worse case will be breaking even or a small win.

Now if Trump somehow pulls off a landslide, I'm screwed. If signs start to point that way, I might sell some contracts before the election.

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Even as a degenerate, betting on the outcome of the election rubs me the wrong way, like wagering whether your wife will survive childbirth. This is life and death. To each their own though.

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47 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

My strategy has been to load up on what I think are easy bets with lower payouts. Arbitrage type of bet. 80-88 range.  But I want to start adding in more educated bets that will actually pay off.  If I end up making some bad bets, the overall worse case will be breaking even or a small win.

Now if Trump somehow pulls off a landslide, I'm screwed. If signs start to point that way, I might sell some contracts before the election.

Yeah, I like to skim sure things.  I will lose my ass if Trump wins, but I think that the chances of that happening are extraordinarily low barring some major shit hitting the fan, like Biden croaking. 

Edited by Anastasis

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11 hours ago, Degenerate Gardner said:

Even as a degenerate, betting on the outcome of the election rubs me the wrong way, like wagering whether your wife will survive childbirth. This is life and death. To each their own though.

Is your wife pregnant?  If so, where did the ob/gyn go to med school?  Asking for a friend.  *calls bookie* 

Edited by Continental Op

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and after poking around, can someone tell me how D-House/R-Senate at .37 on "What will be the balance of power in Congress after the 2020 Election?" isn't free money?  

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4 hours ago, Anastasis said:

I think Hannitty or Carlson were bringing this possibility up to fear monger. It’s such a small possibility that I forget the details. Basically the scenario would have to be nobody getting to 270 by January. It’s not happening. 

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2 hours ago, Continental Op said:

and after poking around, can someone tell me how D-House/R-Senate at .37 on "What will be the balance of power in Congress after the 2020 Election?" isn't free money?  

D house is already a certainty.

D senate is still more likely than R senate.

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10 hours ago, Anastasis said:

What is this fucking market:

 

6 hours ago, Irieguy said:

... I forget the details. Basically the scenario would have to be nobody getting to 270 by January. It’s not happening. 

I've seen some talk (one example below) that the mail in ballot clusterfuck (lawsuits, etc.) might not be fully resolved by 1/20/21.

Quote

...
But we might not know the actual outcome for days, weeks, or even months potentially…

Americans are already on guard that mail-in ballots, long lines at polling places, armies of lawyers and potential court orders could make this presidential election one of the most heavily contested and uncertain elections in our lifetimes.

It could be even more drawn-out and uncertain that the 2000 election between Bush and Gore, which was finally decided by the Supreme Court weeks after Election Day.

If you don’t think things can get even weirder and more uncertain than that, well, they can. I’m not predicting it’s going to happen, let me be clear, but we could even end up with President Pelosi. Here’s how:

The United States has a line-of-succession statute that dictates what happens if an election is undecided. The sitting President and Vice President leave office at noon on January 20, 2021 even if no winner has been decided.

In that case, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi becomes Acting President. But, that assumes Pelosi is named Speaker. What if House seats are also undecided because of mail-in ballots, legal challenges and close elections?

If enough House seats are not decided, there may not be a quorum in the House, which means that there would be no Speaker at all and still no Acting President.

Let’s hope that none of this happens and the outcome is resolved quickly with a legitimate winner all can agree on. The social unrest we’re seeing today could be child’s play next to the kind of unrest we’d see during a disputed election.

But, given the looming uncertainty, it’s impossible to rule out this kind of chaotic scenario. And the way things have gone this year, with the pandemic and the social unrest, would it surprise you if it happened?
...

https://dailyreckoning.com/nancy-pelosi-next-president-of-the-united-states/

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22 hours ago, Degenerate Gardner said:

Even as a degenerate, betting on the outcome of the election rubs me the wrong way, like wagering whether your wife will survive childbirth. This is life and death. To each their own though.

Absolutely terrible post/username correlation. 

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10 hours ago, Continental Op said:

and after poking around, can someone tell me how D-House/R-Senate at .37 on "What will be the balance of power in Congress after the 2020 Election?" isn't free money?  

Yeah- Dems almost assuredly going to win the senate or at least get it to 50/50 with the tie breaker. Like- almost as likely as Biden winning presidency. 

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mpu


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