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berlinerbaer

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Everything posted by berlinerbaer

  1. Fivethirtyeight up with an informative piece on this map. Basically every representative is in a safer district except Vicente Gonzalez in TX-15, and he's retiring. That seat alone will determine whether Texas is 25-13 or 24-14. Can't overlook the effect that uncompetitive House races will have up and down the ballot. This new map will really hurt turnout.
  2. What does this mean? What kind of pressure does the state party really have over her? I imagine the DSSC will still control fundraising, and they will likely endorse her over any challengers.
  3. Ditto!
  4. Cal at Washington going to overtime.
  5. More like illegals in the Valley. From 538...
  6. Cool, but if I'm not mistaken, a ballot measure amends the state constitution which is a more permanent solution than legislation.
  7. Start gathering signatures for the ballot measure to eliminate recall elections now, please.
  8. The recall gained some real traction once Delta started getting out of hand. So far, exit polls show really good news for Newsom on that front. https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/california-recall-election-newsom/
  9. No rain here in Sugar Land, but getting really breezy. It's got a noticeable eastward jog on the most recent radar loop. If that keeps up, it will put most of greater Houston in the clean side of the storm.
  10. He's been good tonight.
  11. Some of this is a hangover from European colonization. I think the Belgian colonizers, for example, played the Hutus and Tutsis off each other in Rwanda in order to keep them weak. The two tribes formerly didn't have much beef and it could be argued that they weren't really separate ethnic groups at all. I can't imagine a tiny country like Rwanda splitting apart into its constituent ethnic enclaves. In any case, Rwanda has really turned things around in the last 25 years, for the better.
  12. I came off as slightly primitivist as well. I'm not saying that's wrong, but it is interesting considering I am a scientist by profession. The question that I got most hung up on was the one that asked if I thought that normal people can be trusted to vote. I went with "Agree" but hesitated because I thought I should consider the current political climate rather than what I thought is generally true.
  13. Welp. We got one solid quarter and now more shit.
  14. We look good on both sides of the ball. I don't care if it's against a MW team, I haven't been able to say that in years.
  15. Who had Washington losing to Montana on their picks?
  16. UCLA looks like they're sending in the whole front 7 every play.
  17. It was fucking hot last week and it's fucking hot today. Not surprised that Bruin fans are staying away. There is zero shade in that place. There should be quite a few UCLA late arrivals this evening. It should look decent on TV by the 2nd half.
  18. The maps in 2022 will be much better than they were in 2012, yes, but will they be better than in 2020?
  19. I'm a huge math and geography fan too, fellas, but I don't think that is going to spell trouble for Democrats in 2022. My interest is instead on the polls, which look increasingly "midterm-like" for the Democrats. If the generic ballot is neutral or even D+2 or so, then the fairest maps in the world will still hand the GOP the House next cycle.
  20. Unified government is rare. The Rs had it from 2003-2007 only because 9/11 fallout made the 2002 midterm atypically good for the party in the WH. That was the first time either party had it for more than two years since 1981. Before that, you need to go back to the 60s. So every 20 years or so is the norm, not every decade like we've become accustomed. The Dems need to take advantage of the next 15 months or FAAFO.
  21. Allegiances in Afghanistan are remarkably fluid and have been so at least since the Soviet War. We didn't seem to take this much into account over the course of our 20 year war. https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2021/08/16/afghanistan-history-taliban-collapse-504977
  22. Probably a dumb question that has been answered already, but how can the Taliban identify people who supported us? Is there some kind of national registry of interpreters? Are they flying American flags in their front yard? Are people getting doxed on social media? Do they just assume that people who left the country did to avoid capture and then go after their families? Is there an accurate census of where people are living and is there information therein about their occupation or past work history? I did read that State and the DoD have been scrubbing names and photos the past several days from websites and online registries to protect these people, so I'm sure that's a clue. I'd think that many of the people who cooperated during the occupation should be able to hide away. https://thehill.com/policy/international/568252-us-agencies-purge-websites-of-content-that-could-endanger-afghans
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