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berlinerbaer

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Everything posted by berlinerbaer

  1. The fact that they also claim to be feeling good about EV turnout in Nevada is a strong indication that they're lying. Clark county already overtook its total 2016 vote with Election Day still to come.
  2. There are Lib and Green party candidates in the race pulling ~2 and 4% respectively, which will make it tough for anyone to break 50%. Ranked choice voting then kicks in and that should elevate Gideon more than Collins. The Green candidate has actually told her supporters to put Gideon down as their #2.
  3. Shit, I'm talking short-term low hanging fruit and y'all are freewheeling your wish lists. I held back from my 2nd amendment repeal.
  4. Low hanging fruit if Biden is elected, in this order: 1. Covid stimulus 2. HR-1 / new voting rights act 3. Universal background checks + red flag law Just those three and a bunch of executive orders to shore up the existing ACA, take the kids out of cages, effectively staff all agencies and departments, and reimpose Obama-level oversight and regulations and the Dems will expand their share of the House and Senate in 2022. Having said that, watch them all fuck around for 18 months with a new health care bill, or the Green New Deal, and I say that as someone who wants those things.
  5. Right? and it wasn't even a black Hitler.
  6. Unless it is an N95 mask, it won't offer much protection for the wearer. Most masks really only offer protection from the wearer. It only takes one asshole...
  7. I'd be shocked if a majority of the money Republican candidates are playing with this cycle didn't collectively come from the coastal blue states. California is full of rich Republicans who throw gobs of money at the national party because of a lack of any real game in town. I'd imagine every blue state on the East Coast is similar. The difference this go-around is that Trump and the GOP have pissed off entire categories of the upper-middle class (mostly in these same blue states) and they have either switched allegiances or are finally opening up their wallet.
  8. Her new tweet has more than twice the number of likes and generated more than five times the amount of replies compared to her July tweet. For a candidate without widespread name recognition, that isn't nothing.
  9. All of this. I have no interest in digging up dirt on this woman. No Democratic senator should have to hunt for any excuse to reject her confirmation. This must solely be about the stolen pick from 2016. The appearance of such blatant partisan politics will resonate with voters much more than culture wars, civil rights issues, or any stories of past transgressions. Everyone outside of the maga base is sick of that shit.
  10. This is only the second time in recorded history in which a sentence about Trump has the word "embarrassment" in reference to someone else. I'm positive you accounted for the only other instance back in 2017.
  11. It's understandable that spirits are low after hearing Trump and his sycophants gaslight the country for four straight nights. It's psychologically draining even for the most optimistic of us. People wonder why elections are held at all in autocratic countries like Belarus, Russia, and Turkey if they are just going to get fucked with. It's because fucking with the outcome is the point. It's psychological warfare. It's a show of strength. Trump is well aware of this. He took the opportunity to openly flaunt norms and spout lies that the media has no real appetite to fact check to the necessary extent. Because he can. 40% of us are stupid or selfish or hateful enough to eat it up. We're losing sleep what the other 15% will think.
  12. The ballot doesn't need to arrive and be counted by election day. It only needs to be postmarked by then. See California 2018 and the trickle of ballots arriving until late November. There's still a chance for shenanigans if the results are not decided by the time the Electoral College votes in December. We may be glad for the lame duck period.
  13. Only an upper-atmosphere nuclear explosion is capable of generating a long range EMP that could effectively cripple most of the country. Smaller scale non-nuclear weaponry would be restricted to battlefields and local theaters of hot conflict. Somebody educate me if this is not the case. I don't see this as being anything other than a fancy name for a nuclear attack. Therefore, due to MAD, it has as much a chance of happening as a more conventional nuclear exchange. If we see ballistic missiles headed our way, we won't bother to wait and see if these warheads are meant to turn our cities to rubble or just fry a bunch of circuit boards.
  14. Have you seen a poll where Trump is underwater with whites generally? I haven't. Don't sugarcoat this turd.
  15. I don't know about Venezuelans, but it's not baffling at all that Cubans vote Republican, particularly older ones . Cubans historically have been able to just wash up onto US territory (literally in some cases) and claim amnesty. They can bypass the majority of the immigration process that most of the rest of the world, and all other LA citizens are subjected. They have been anointed the chosen people for political reasons and many tend to vote just like their entitled white brethren. Obama nixing the amnesty program not long before leaving office probably turned even more of them off of the Democrats. Cubans should be treated as their own category (or considered whites) in political polls and surveys and not lumped into the broader Hispanic/Latinx grouping.
  16. I fully expect Cal will follow suit. They also have a large number of sports programs that they can barely support on a good year. Attempts at even minor cuts have prompted backlash from alums in the past but not anymore. Expect smaller cuts elsewhere if only because everyone else had already downsized.
  17. I was curious to see what kind of impact donations would have in this race. Two questions I had was how much has each candidate raised and how expensive it is to campaign in Alaska. It's easy enough to find information to answer the first question. Sullivan has $4.5M on-hand as of March. He raised 8 million in 2014 when he was last up. Gross has $2M on-hand. Online ad expenditure is almost even between the candidates and not that high to date. That's all there is on opensecrets, so I have no answer to the second question. https://www.opensecrets.org/races/candidates?cycle=2020&id=AKS1&spec=N In any case, $2 million isn't nothing, so I think Gross should set up to be funded well enough already to get his name out there.
  18. PPP is a Democratic pollster, but they're legit. Accounting for the few points bias to the left, this race still looks like a Dem lean. 39% is awful for an incumbent.
  19. There's an entire forum for this.
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