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berlinerbaer

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Everything posted by berlinerbaer

  1. PCR is a widely available analytical tool that many hospitals and forensic labs are capable of running. The key seems to be in the choice of which viral genes are targeted and the availability of those needed reagents. PCR uses a small amount of synthetic DNA, called primer, that's about 10 base pairs long. The primer is designed to only bind to a segment of viral complimentary DNA, usually at the start of the strand for one particular gene. The polymerase enzyme finds this primer-bound segment and begins replication. In this manner, only the DNA you want is amplified, and the much greater amounts of other DNA, such as from the patient, is ignored and eventually drowned out by the replicated viral DNA. My guess is that the primer is the reagent in short supply that we keep hearing about. Not only that, but in an early CDC test a primer was chosen that targeted a gene non-specific to CoV-2, leading to ambiguous results or even false positives. The South Koreans and others appear to have chosen the correct gene to target. The South Koreans also have an antibody test that works in minutes, much faster than PCR. These are much like the standard flu test.
  2. The suburbs are getting bluer. That fact was demonstrated most clearly in 2018 when Trump wasn't on the ticket.
  3. This. That 2017-2018 flu season was a real bitch. I caught pneumonia from it too. My wife is Chinese, so I've been hearing about this since New Years. The nice thing is that she stocked us up with food, hand sanitizer, and masks before it was trendy. I'm most concerned because of our kids who have been robbing us of sleep and knocking my ass out with who knows what ailment the past few years. And, yes, more lower respiratory issues than I'm comfortable with. I envy you all who don't have small children in daycare. Put me down as moderately concerned.
  4. How valid is a poll conducted 6 weeks ago?
  5. I assume you are talking mostly about the Vegas debate (because the SC debate was an unmitigated shitshow). You forget Warren's brand of progressivism: financial justice and anti-corruption. You'd have to be ignorant of her to think that she would pass up the opportunity to lay into a billionaire trying to buy his way to the nomination just to try to dunk on Joe Biden. You also forget the state of the race before Nevada. Biden was reeling and Bloomberg was this great intangible Nothing spreading over the land. We should be grateful she took him down.
  6. Liz waited until June to endorse Hillary, after it was clear she had enough pledged delegates to secure the nomination. What happened in 2016 can't be used to predict her endorsement this time.
  7. Don't forget TX-22. Sri Kulkarni has a great shot against either Troy Nehls or Kathaleen Wall.
  8. I agree, although I voted for a few people only because I got a letter or a flyer in the mail. Without knowing anything else, the fact that I got a mailer indicated to me that the candidate is more likely to run a serious campaign. With that said, the state house candidate to which I applied the above tactic finished 3rd in his race. The possible explanation was that he was spamming my electronic inbox, which doesn't necessarily indicate deep pockets.
  9. Although I voted for her, I don't think Warren would make a good VP pick for either candidate. I don't think her vision is really compatible with Biden's and being on the ticket with Bernie would be progressive overload without enlarging Bernie's coalition. Kamala is the best choice for both.
  10. When I voted for Liz this past Thursday I was seriously considering switching to Bernie, who has been my #2 for awhile now. If I had waited until after the SC results, odds are I would have done so to help Bernie win Texas. In the end I didn't want to deal with the election day hassles and wanted to vote my conscience, so I voted early for Liz.
  11. Wat At least half of the Super Tuesday vote has already been cast. Only Bama and Samoa don't have early voting. A 5% swing is the best Biden can hope for.
  12. She'll mop up the latino vote. Sema Hernandez beat Beto in the RGV and other southern counties in 2018. Was that because she was hispanic, or a progressive? Either way, it helps Cristina this go-around in a runoff and in the general.
  13. She should have taken a similar path as Yang and Inslee and run as a single-issue candidate. But unlike those two, she is so good at that one issue, anti-corruption in her case, that she would have gone far into the primary just hammering on that. Instead, she felt the need to have a plan for everything and become a "total" candidate. I agree that getting caught up in Bernie's wheelhouse, M4A, really cost her. She was my choice, then I started to waver 50/50 with Bernie. Wednesday night's debate put me back on her side (she is soooo good speaking truth to power) but Bernie's cleanup in Nevada makes me think I should go full bro. I'm not sure what I'm going to do.
  14. Dude. Get off of Surly, take a bathroom break, grab a beer, and watch that motherfucker. You give the Bernie Bros way too much credit. Sanders strikes me as someone with integrity who won't attempt to appease the worst of his supporters, unlike the current stain on the White House. I'm not sure he should choose any of the young progressives as a running mate. It won't be a moderate, but he should pick someone to help build out the coalition. I like the idea of a woman of color sitting in the ideological middle of the party. Like Kamala or Stacey Abrams.
  15. I'm probably going to vote for her. I may flip to Hegar in the runoff if I think she has a significantly better chance of actually winning, but as it stands now I'm pretty sure it's an L regardless. With that in mind I'd prefer the progressive candidate to stay in it it and keep laying groundwork. You've pretty much described me. I'll likely vote Hegar in the runoff as well, but I want to see a statewide match-up between a progressive and a moderate Dem, so I'll vote for Tzintzun this go around. The runoff will gauge just how remote Bernie's prospects are for flipping this state in the general or, conversely, make me wish we had nominated him if we instead go with Bloomie.
  16. Ducey had no choice. The Arizona GOP doesn't have much of a bench anymore. It's not at all like Texas. For a decade after the Dems win their first statewide seat in TX, I expect the GOP to still contest heavily and even win the majority of statewide offices. I wouldn't count on Texas becoming a legitimate blue state, but will instead move to purple and stay there for the foreseeable future, like Florida and North Carolina. One reason is because of the large number of quality candidates either currently in lower offices or waiting to run. This will make TX a swing state long after the demographics would suggest it should be blue. Arizona is different. McSally was appointed because the alternatives were Kelli Ward or the convict former sheriff. The only sure win the GOP has for Senate is Ducey himself if he chooses to run after his governor term limits expire. The GOP is in real trouble in Arizona, so that state may go straight from red to blue without lingering at purple for more than a couple of cycles, much like Colorado and Virginia have done.
  17. This is not true, unfortunately. We have yet to see a poll that wasn't conducted before the most recent debate. Might be wishful thinking, but I think Bloomie's numbers are going to suffer to the benefit of Biden. And that Bugs Bunny gif gets me every time
  18. I haven't voted yet for the same reason: Nevada. But I'm coming around to not caring about Nevada, mostly because any post-debate bump in favor of Warren won't show up. Most Nevadans had already voted by Wednesday night. I guess it depends on your number 2. I'm looking for polling showing Liz approaching viability in Texas. If not, I might vote Bernie to help push him over.
  19. Many Chinese men smoke whereas few Chinese women do. This can be best explained if the actual number of infected in Hubei is higher than being reported. Local healthcare is overwhelmed so lots of people with milder symptoms won't get tested.
  20. Texas Democratic Primary Senate Debate for your eyeballs
  21. I was assuming that he won the nomination because the point of my first post was to make an argument in favor of his electability vs. Trump.
  22. What If he wins the nom? Do you plan on staying home? If not, then they would be working towards your desired outcome, regardless of how personal their loyalties lie.
  23. Truth. Those guys may be assholes, but they'd be our assholes. They are the only group of supporters who could go up against the forthcoming Russian troll/bot army online.
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