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Huckleberry

Certifiably Surly
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Everything posted by Huckleberry

  1. I know it's tough, but they've made their choice. The good news is you've got us. Shit, no wait, that's more bad news. Sorry about your Friday.
  2. And these myriad problems are so obvious to anyone with any basic legal training whatsoever, and even many people without any legal training, that sanctions against filing counsel are certainly on the way, right?
  3. Top 9 counties have the same number of registered voters as the rest of the state. I use top 15 only because that's how far down the historical early voting results pages go on the Texas elections site.
  4. Depends on what we are talking about. I think 9% of registered Republicans who vote is feasible. 9% of people who currently consider themselves Republicans is less likely.
  5. Due east, but call it East Pakistan if you really want to get some Bangladeshis riled up.
  6. Anybody that is trying to absolve Cole of fault on that play either knows absolutely nothing about baseball or is scared of Cole's reaction to being called out. @Beau Vine's clip from Game 1 shows that the problem is he is 100% lazy on that play. IDEA THIEF!
  7. @bolverk's data would be better here but seems unlikely. I have estimated 2.54mm to 2.10mm in favor of Ds from the top 15 counties. Using 2020 vote splits this would estimate a .56mm lead for R right now. 53.9% to 46.1% out of votes cast for one of the two. Which seems a lot more reasonable.
  8. In late October they published a Biden 51-46 national poll
  9. This part will be easier when it's just girl talk after your involuntary surgery.
  10. Yeah I'm not sure if mine is being interpreted as bad news but it isn't. In fact the last few days have seen more of a slowdown the redder the county is. This very well may be the election day vote cannibalization that has been discussed.
  11. The difficult part is we know that the big sort (migration) and party realignment (primarily education level based) are happening but we can't know relative impacts until actual results come in. That's where the not knowing shit about fuck comes from. Which one has a bigger impact on Pennsylvania for example? They have a large population of uneducated white people in the western half of the state, but they are also losing more Republican voters to migration. Add to all of this that party registration lags realignment, it doesn't lead.
  12. It's in the we don't know shit about fuck pile. The 2020 and 2024 elections are going to have different early versus election day voting profiles for the one big obvious reason. Before COVID, Democrats voted on election day and Republicans voted early (generally speaking those were their preferences). How much are we moving back toward that in 2024? Nobody knows. I will say that the movement isn't huge but the more rural counties out of the top 15 counties in Texas are losing steam faster than the urban ones the last few days. Everyone is, but there used to be 4 counties ahead of their compressed 2020 EV rate and 3 of them were Trump counties in 2020. Now there is only one.
  13. Sir, you're on a Texas-based board and you're going to have to stop worrying about other fanbases for a while. Your team just won the World Series.
  14. I swear to the baseball gods that if there is no opposing fan with a sign saying COVER FIRST TODAY TOMORROW FOREVER at Cole's first start next season I will riot. Hell, Yankees fans should have them, too. If I were one of them tweeters that would be a good one tonight.
  15. Congrats to @Sbbruin and the Dodgers. What an epic choke job by the Yankees tonight.
  16. So their big takeaway is that in consecutive midterm elections each party did better when they weren't in the White House. How insightful.
  17. I think Cole misinterpreted Rizzo holding his glove hand way out when setting up to field the ground ball. 100% still should have covered and is his fault, but I think that's why he screwed up.
  18. Sort of. I sent him back a more conservative version that dampens the trends. It has Harris at 46.3% of the vote. Of course his county percentages are based on early voting turnout but using full election vote shares from 2020. I don't think there's a better way to do it, though, considering that reasonable people expect the early versus election day voting split to be 2022ish, not 2020ish. Just saw that poll that said 50% plan to vote on Election Day versus 37% in 2020.
  19. Because pollsters believe that completely discarding them is what made their product suck in 2016. So as is human nature they are overcorrecting and counting them all as Trump votes.
  20. Okay, that's a linear trend then. I think it will overstate the vote trends for this election but it's not a bad calculation to look at. With another step it might be better. If you used FORECAST on the difference in vote shares instead of on the vote shares themselves and then added that estimated 2020-2024 difference to the 2020 vote share it would be a better reflection, I would think off the top of my head. As an example, if a county went 40% Obama, 42% Clinton, 43.5% Biden then FORECAST on the vote shares themselves will give you 45.3% Harris. But if you run FORECAST on the deltas (2%, 1.5%) then it will of course estimate a 1% delta this election, and you will have a prediction of 44.5% Harris in this election. Of course this also has risks for counties that reversed trends. So probably not worth the effort for message board posting.
  21. I was actually going to look into doing something like this so I appreciate what you're doing. What did you use as a factor for the trend continuation? For example, if a county went 40% Clinton then 42% Biden are you saying 44% this year or are you continuing but dampening the trend? I would want to look at historical info but without enough time to devote to it, my first instinct would be to cut the last 4 year difference in half so call the estimate for the above hypothetical county 45% Harris this year instead of 46%.
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