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Thetexashammer

Certifiably Surly
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Everything posted by Thetexashammer

  1. I'll wait for more data, and I don't dispute the existence of young, healthy patients, but I think the incidence of complications in the young and healthy is very, very low.
  2. Losing 10-42 to A&M doesn't sound good. Neither does losing to SMU 14-44. We only lost to OU by seven, so moral victory? Also lost to Air Force 16-24. Defintely not good.
  3. Structurally, there are many years worth of bourbon already in barrels. Prices will be reasonable. Even better for scotch, as the lower temperatures requires longer on the wood. All of the distilleries were in the middle of expanding. Macallan, for example, doubled their capacity. Good times are coming.
  4. Even gold is down. Everybody is selling, everybody needs cash. It took ten years from the last crash to create enough jobs for everyone. The damage is literally incalculable. Mark Cuban donating money now is like the Christmas Truce of WWI.
  5. I'll repeat my earlier prediction. Get out your Dow 10,000 hats. You''re practicing a cognitive bias known as anchoring.
  6. This is the really fascinating thing. They declared control. And put out numbers indicating no transmission. I too believed, albeit briefly, their numbers. Naw, no way. They're just gonna burn the bodies. Just brutal. The most brutal shit they've done since the Great Leap Forward. I don't want to believe it, but damn.
  7. So if we do a 2 trillion dollar stimulus, had an existing trillion dollar deficit, and probably lose a trillion dollars of tax revenue (at least), we'll show at least $4 trillion federal deficit this year. Maybe closer to $5 trillion, or 25% of GDP.
  8. Sure. You're still looking at seven figure deaths. It's just like the flu, except more transmissible and 20x as fatal.
  9. What makes you think we would have developed herd immunity in the next month or so?
  10. They'll get their test. They just need to bring their military ID, their vaccination record, their dd-214s (all of them), their 2173, an approved DTS travel authorization, and a memo from the company commander authorizing the test. Then they will be placed on the waiting list and notified by military email when a test becomes available.
  11. There was something I read where they said if everyone wore a mask in public, it would provide near perfect prevention. Basically, there are public health policies which need to be undertaken to prevent transmission. But I'm not sure there is a plan. This wasn't planned for. I'm not huge on "new hospitals", but more ICU's and vent beds will go a long way. I also think they get a vaccine sooner than later, but not in time before we have to release from quarantine obviously. There was a second, larger spike in the fall after the Spanish Flu first happened. I think that is what we should expect here. At least, until someone figures out how to stop it. If you expect that we avoided restricting access to ICU beds I think you are mistaken.
  12. I understand perfectly. I am saying that all we did was shift it to the right. Have we established herd immunity? How is the virus less dangerous in six weeks as compared to now? The US has 4,661 people infected. Even if it's 466,100, that still leaves 99% of the population to infect. You didn't flatten anything.
  13. So now that we're "in it", is there a plan to get "out of it"? If we quarantine for six weeks, then people start starving and we have to release everyone, it won't have flattened the curve at all, just delayed it and added in a financial disaster on top of the pandemic. In other words, now that we've tanked the economy, did we gain anything?
  14. You do know what a "daily" ETF is, right? It's not something you hold as a long term investment. https://www.etf.com/etf-education-center/etf-basics/leveraged-and-inverse-etfs-why-2x-is-not-the-2x-you-think
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