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Snake Diggity

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Everything posted by Snake Diggity

  1. Low hanging fruit that wouldn’t directly address the problem but would help: a requirement for all classrooms to have 2 adults at all times, ideally as part of a dramatic reduction in student/teacher ratio. This would mitigate the risk of situations like this but would also address a multitude of other problems in our education system. If I could enact one single change in our country, it would be to reduce student/teacher ratios dramatically.
  2. 3 common threads to these incidents: 1. Mentally ill person with a fuckton of warning signs. 2. That mentally ill person having access to firearms. 3. The armed mentally ill person being able to gain access to the school. American society needs to address all 3. That dude shouldn’t have been able to post violent shit on social media without somebody following up with authorities. That dude should not have been able to get ahold of guns or ammo. That school should have been locked. The firearm industry should be treated with the heavy hand of both the automobile and cigarette industries.
  3. Same here. Picking my girls up early today. Fuck our gun laws.
  4. https://www.rbcwealthmanagement.com/en-us/insights/is-record-use-of-the-feds-reverse-repo-facility-a-sign-of-market-stress
  5. You’ve never seen anyone who can’t afford food spend $1500 on Texans tickets you fucking liar.
  6. I was a casual fan of the Astros, Cowboys, and Longhorns as a little kid. In junior high and high school, I was obsessed with basketball and was a huge Charlotte Hornets fan. The 94-95 season I probably watched 70+ Hornets games on tv. Age 18-29 I was as avid of a longhorn football fan as anybody. Attended every home game and OU. Watched every road game on tv religiously. The games were the focus and highlight of my calendar. The losses ruined my day, and sometimes my week. The wins tasted like a great meal. Thru my 30’s and into my 40’s my UT passion has waned dramatically. But the hobby is still there. I can still name every current player on the roster and most recruits from memory. I still have season tickets. But I am pretty apathetic. That’s due to a lot of factors: I now have a family that rearranged my priorities, I started following the Astros a lot more, college football descended further into resembling an NFL D-league, and Texas has been mediocre. Never thought I would say this, but I am on the fence about renewing my tickets after this season. In my late 20s I got interested in minor league baseball and as a childhood fan of the Astros started following their farm. That coincided with Houston’s rebuild and something about the way prospects evolve got me hooked. I obsess over Houston’s farm system and have yet to run into another fan as passionate or knowledgeable about it as I am. Consequently I’m a pretty big fan of the big league team. But I am not really emotionally invested in the outcomes of the games. And I don’t really watch games on TV. I follow the box scores online religiously and attend an Astros game and a few minor league games each year. I’ve been to spring training once and would love to do that again. I pay attention to UT baseball and basketball but it’s pretty casual other than following the roster and playoffs/tournaments and maybe attending 2-3 home games a year. I just don’t have time or energy to be heavily emotionally invested in sports right now. I do wonder if that’ll change once my kids are older and/or I’m retired.
  7. I think once most of the boomers have been buried, it’ll be more politically feasible. Which will be good timing.
  8. One thing I think will happen is that in the future there will be a 2nd lever the government can pull to control unemployment/inflation in addition to interest rate manipulation: immigration rate. In 10-15 years we will likely rely heavily on immigrants to grow/sustain the labor force and economy. So when the economy overheats or unemployment skyrockets, they can turn down the immigrant spigot and not be completely reliant on interest rates. Some really high upside scenarios with that factored in; of course, there’s risk there too, since we’d be reliant on conditions outside the US, and we’d be sacrificing our neighbors and other poorer countries to keep ourselves afloat. But overall I think it’ll be a good thing. Side note: I think it’s a good thing that the Fed’s mandate is related to inflation and unemployment, not GDP or the stock market.
  9. Hahahahah they say 41% of all dollars were created in 2 years…then show that number as calculated with the 2020 dollars as the denominator. That aside, they changed how they calculate M2: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2 You’re a fucking idiot.
  10. Why didn’t somebody grab a fuckin water hose and spray them away? Or something. Damn.
  11. Recession by the classic definition (2Q of negative growth) is extremely likely. Market sentiment tied to that means a bear market is extremely likely. The other hallmarks of dark economic times? I don’t think they’re likely. There are 5M more job openings than people looking for work. % of people on unemployment is lower than it’s been in 50 years. Demographic trends point to a labor shortage in the short, medium, and long term. So I just don’t see us getting into double digit unemployment, at least for many years, and possibly ever. The dollar is very strong compared to other currencies. So while we are seeing dramatic inflation, it’s a worldwide phenomenon. That tells me it’s not an issue of money supply or access to capital, but an issue wholly related to the supply of goods and services. Aside from the labor shortage, geopolitical issues are by far the largest cause. It is difficult to predict the outcome of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. But I am hopeful it will largely resolve over the course of this year. Certainly financial stimulus is a contributing factor to what we’re seeing, but I think it’s 3rd or 4th or 5th down the list of primary causes. If a “soft landing” means avoiding recession, I think that ship has sailed. I predict a deep but quick recession. If soft landing means just getting inflation under control without sending unemployment to uncomfortable levels, I am very optimistic they’ll achieve that outcome.
  12. Fucking classic. All your solutions involve time travel.
  13. It could be a pretty big win for the Astros for Odorizzi to suffer a mid-season injury that keeps him from reaching all those incentives but allows him to come back strong enough so that he opts out of next year. Although judging from the last month $6.5M wouldn’t be a terrible deal for another year of Odo.
  14. Varsho under control thru 2026, Montas is a free agent after next season. Plan for next season would McCormick/Matijevic/Leon replace Brantley/Gurriel/Diaz on the position player side, Abreu/Whitley/Mushinski replace Montero/Odorizzi/Chafin. Verlander potentially leaving still presents problem but adding Montas mitigates that risk.
  15. The other side would tell you that the % of people in the total population who are working is still not that high (it’s in the replies to Bidens tweet). Which is true. A lot of people retired early and a lot of women left the workforce, which was spurred by the pandemic. But there’s still a lot of truth in Biden’s claim. And it’s backed up by figures on job openings.
  16. Assuming everybody stays healthy and doing what they’ve been doing, here are the 3 trades I would try to make at the deadline: 1. Trade SP Jose Urquidy, CF Jose Siri, and RHP Misael Tamarez to Arizona for C/OF Daulton Varsho. Gives Houston a good lefty hitting catcher to deepen the lineup; he will also make a great pairing with Lee starting next season. Urquidy is relatively superfluous on a roster like Houston’s but would be a good add on a team like Arizonas who is just trying to get competitive. Arizona would also likely want him because Strom is there. Alternative targets for Houston would be MJ Melendez or Willson Contreras. 2. Trade RHP Hunter Brown, RHP Peter Solomon, and 3B Joe Perez for SP Frankie Montas. Gives Houston another ToR SP. Brown is a steep price to pay and Solomon and Perez are solid 3rd tier prospects. Oakland might have a lot higher asking price but this is what I’d feel comfortable with. Other SP targets would be Luis Castillo, German Marquez, Pablo Lopez, and Tyler Mahle. 3. Trade RP Blake Taylor and RP Ronel Blanco for RP Andrew Chafin. Upgrades from Taylor and adds an effective late inning lefty. He’s a rental so it shouldn’t be too expensive. Detroit picks up a couple of live arms that might help their pen over the long term. Other targets would be David Bednar, Chris Martin, and Scott Barlow. Resulting roster: 2B Altuve RF Tucker 3B Bregman DH Alvarez SS Pena LF Brantley 1B Gurriel C Varsho CF Meyers Bench: Dubon, Maldonado, Castro, Diaz Rotation: Verlander, Montas, McCullers, Valdez, Garcia Bullpen: Odorizzi, Javier, Maton, Stanek, Chafin, Montero, Neris, Pressly Abreu and McCormick would be optioned to AAA until needed. Thats a sick roster. Varsho is the one they’d probably have to overpay for. But a good lefty hitting catcher who could fill in the outfield is one of the very few ways they can deepen the roster.
  17. https://twitter.com/potus/status/1527332531116204047?s=21&t=bAaT0Lv6aWft8__jFJBB8Q
  18. I doubt we will see Leon or Lee this season. Leon is playing well but still striking out too much to warrant a callup. Plus, the Astros have other guys they can call up for short term replacements in case of injuries (Goodrum, Hensley, Matijevic, and De Goti as infielders, Siri/McCormick, Matijevic, and Brinson as OF) rather than start Leon’s clock. Lee is not hitting well enough to get called up and with how much the Astros value catcher defense and pitcher management they are married to Maldy and Castro no matter how little they hit. They may make a trade to upgrade the backup to a better hitter but even that is unlikely. In any case I don’t see Lee getting called up. Brown might see time at some point but for now they still have a glut of SP so it’s doubtful he gets called up unless there are multiple injuries. They have good options for spot starts in guys already on the 40 man in Solomon, Bielak, and Dubin (plus possibly Whitley later in the year). Service time considerations changed significantly this past offseason with the new CBA. Now teams are incentivized to call their best young players up at the very beginning of a season after they’ve been named to Top 100 prospect lists the prior offseason. This makes me think they will keep all 3 of Lee, Leon, and Brown down all of this year and start them in Houston opening day next season (unless of course they’re used as trade chips before then). Generally I think you will see the top guys kept down until opening day with any rookies called up in the middle of the season being guys they wouldn’t expect to be able to contend for awards.
  19. It seems to me, the causes of the inflation we are currently experiencing are, in order: Undersupply of oil, caused by myriad factors led by Russian invasion of Ukraine and Saudis unwillingness to increase supply to compensate. Supply chain issues caused by myriad factors led by China’s zero COVID policy. Worker shortages in the US caused by long term demographic trends and effects of the 2020-2021 pandemic (early retirements and people voluntarily leaving the workforce e.g. more women staying home). Overstimulation of the economy caused by US monetary policy over the last 20 years.
  20. We could shed 5M jobs and openings would still exceed unemployed. This is going to be a very odd recession.
  21. Non-zero chance that by 8/31: China has opened up and ironed out, Russia has fallen back, Fed has said they’ve raised enough, and the Saudis play ball. There’s plenty of reason for optimism. Just not in the very short term.
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