Jump to content

Snake Diggity

Legacy Members
  • Posts

    2475
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Everything posted by Snake Diggity

  1. GDP could shrink and if there’s enough slack in the demand for workers then unemployment would remain low, especially if unemployment benefits were decreased/shortened. Depends on how much slack there is in the demand for workers. Participation isn’t actually that low, relatively to history, especially for prime working age. A lot of what people are seeing as low participation is just olds retiring a few years early.
  2. I think it’s possible we could enter a fairly severe recession and still see extremely low unemployment. I think we could see all of these things happen at the same time: Recession caused by inflation Continued low unemployment Continued increases in home values The thing I really don’t have a guess on is what the impact of those things would be on rates, stocks, and medium/long term economic growth.
  3. 1. There’s still the probability (imho) that the inflation we are seeing is related more to supply chain and labor force issues than the money supply. We need a period (6+ mo?) of relative stability (no pandemic, no precipice of world war) before we can determine whether rates should be raised dramatically. I am still hopeful that inflation begins to level off by the 2nd half of the year. 2. No. 3. I don’t think those moves would have an outsized impact against the causes of the inflation we are currently seeing.
  4. Word. That Pena/Siri combo is similar to the old rebuilding lineups. Not much was expected but there was upside there and they were exciting to watch.
  5. All the SP have looked pretty sharp this spring, and Neris, Javier, Maton, and Stanek look good to go. Baez and Pressly showing disturbing drops in velo. Not sure about whoever is projected to the other open spots (I’m assuming Montero and a lefty plus 2 more since the rosters expanded). All in all I’m really optimistic about this team even after losing Correa. Last year’s roster vs this years: Out: Correa, Greinke, Graveman, Raley, Y Garcia In: Pena, Verlander, Neris, Morgan, Montero/Baez, $30M in payroll flexibility
  6. I think Tucker is the best option for leadoff, with Altuve being next. Bregman, Alvarez, Brantley, and Gurriel are too slow even though they have the onbase profile. Pena and McCormick/Meyers/Siri/Goodrum do not have the proven on-bas skills to leadoff. And Maldy is mostly terrible at hitting. It’s possible that one of the young players can make a good leadoff guy but that shouldn’t be an option until 200+ pa into the season.
  7. Wtf is with all the negativity. If Ewers is legit this offense will be fucking badass. Shit, the offensive depth chart reported features NINE guys with starting experience. Same for defense. If our QB and coaches are worth a runny fuck this is a 10+ win team.
  8. Since Beard wants a positionless roster, it’s more about aggregating talent. I think 1-15, these are the spots he has filled so far: 1. Mitchell 2. Morris 4. Bishop 5. Disu 6. Askew 7. Cunningham 10. Brumbaugh 11. Perryman 12. Bott So he needs one more “really good” player plus 2 “capable” guys, then walk-ons to get to whatever number of bodies he wants. I think Allen, Carr, Jones, or Ramey coming back would qualify as the “really good” spot. Allen or Ramey would be my choice as I think they’d be the best complements to the rest of the roster. Things are looking really good for Texas to have an even better roster next season.
  9. I am not sure rolling with Siri is “getting cute”. Dude broke out in a major way last season and has always been a tooled up prospect. If he plays anywhere near the level he was at last year he’s a star player. Yes he strikes out a lot but with his speed, defense, and power, he can k 30% of the time and still be very very good. And while I’m less bullish on McCormick’s ceiling, he posted very good numbers last year in line with a solid everyday player. I think signing a proven corner bat and forcing Tucker into CF would be “getting cute” more than giving Siri a chance to prove his 2021 wasn’t a fluke. That said, I wouldn’t be opposed to them adding a corner bat if it’s the right one at the right price. There just weren’t many good CF options available this offseason.
  10. I have followed the Astros farm system very closely since 2008. 3 guys from their farm I thought for sure would be good MLB players who turned out to be busts: OF Andrew Aplin: left handed CF who was a 5th rd pick from UA who was an excellent defensive player and didn’t strike out much. One of the best defensive CF I’ve ever seen in person. Thought he’d be a fringey starting CF at worst but wouldn’t have surprised me if he’d become a star player. In the end he couldn’t make enough quality contact to keep pitchers honest and flamed out in AAA. IF Jonathan Arauz: versatile defensive player who the Astros acquired as part of the Ken Giles trade. He held his own as a 20 year old in AA and looked like he had hidden power. Got exposed to the rule 5 draft and was picked by Boston in 2020 and was up and down last season, but he’s been replacement level in the majors. He’s only 23 so he might still break out but I thought for sure he’d be a good mlb player. C JR Towles: Had gotten a September call up in 2007 and kicked ass. Since the Astros farm was totally barren at the time he got a lot of hype. I figured at a minimum he’d be a complement to Ausmus and one of the better hitting Astros catchers ever. But he only played 155 mlb games and was below replacement level. I also thought Brian Bogusevic would be very good in the majors. He wasn’t.
  11. Valdez and Maton are both extension candidates. Could be why they haven’t settled yet.
  12. With Brock back, the roster has 2 starting guards (Mitchell, Morris) and a solid bench (Askew, Cunningham, Disu, Brumbaugh, Perryman) that should be locked in. So we need another guard (which I suspect will be a returning player: Carr, Jones, or Ramey), 2 forwards (with Bishop, T Mitchell, and Allen being possibilities), and 2 scrubs (with Benson being an option). My guess is Beard will be looking for one elite transfer with some size and 2 versatile complementary players.
  13. Do any of our players with eligibility profile as NBA draft picks (or even free agent signees)? I certainly don’t see Bishop as a pro prospect of any kind at this point. Disu, Perryman, and Askew should be back. Add in Mitchell, Morris, and Brumbaugh. I would set the over/under of other guys Beard is able to retain at 2 (from a list of Jones, Bishop, Carr, Mitchell, Ramey, Benson, and Allen). So that likely means 3-4 transfers. An 8 man rotation of Mitchell, Morris, Disu, Askew, 2 guys who surprise us and come back (my guesses would be Jones and Bishop), and 2 really good transfers would put that team as better than this years team on paper.
  14. I think he had an injury that sapped his power.
  15. Depending on price I think Conforto would be a great fit for the Astros. Could be serviceable in CF this season and serve as another excellent bat to lengthen the lineup, and he hits lefty so he’d balance the lineup out. If he signed a multiyear deal he’d be a great replacement for Brantley after this season. Id be happy to see him sign with Houston for $18M/1yr plus incentives and probably would be willing to give him anything up to $90M/5yr.
  16. Looking at teams who appear to be rebuilding, here are the players Houston might want to try to trade for: SP: Means, Montas, Manaea OF: Mullins, Laureano, Reynolds
  17. I think Correa’s injury history was certainly a factor in his inability to get the contract he really wanted, and Houston likely knew more about his health than anyone else. Each season he avoid injury (especially back injuries) will help him a lot, although the fact that he is aging will offset that. But if Correa puts up another healthy MVP caliber season I would predict he will opt out and secure $200M+. We have no way of knowing what other offers he had but my opinion is if he was offered $200M+ over any length he should have taken it. Hard to say what Houston should do with their payroll flexibility. In terms of current free agents, I would check the price on Story, Conforto, Pham, and Soler. Exploring extensions with Alvarez, Tucker, and Pena is probably worthwhile although I wouldn’t expect Alvarez or Tucker to accept anything that makes sense for the Astros. The trade market doesn’t appear to be all that ripe so Houston’s best bet might be to sit tight until the deadline. And of course, hookers and blow.
  18. Too many unknowns to really judge Correa or the front office. In the absence of details, I’m inclined to give Crane the benefit of the doubt; he’s earned that. Astros project to a 86% chance of winning their division and they have ~$30M under the tax threshold. They’re in good shape.
  19. Trump will pick Haley and it is a certainty he will comment frequently on how beautiful she is.
  20. This is strictly my opinion but I have found management companies to be well worth the cost of not having to mess with the upkeep and dealing with renters. If it is in a prime area I’m sure there are multiple companies you can pay to turnkey it and deal with all maintenance, bookings, etc. Wrt long term renter screening, the 2 requirements I would never budge on are previous rental history and ability to come up with the deposit. I always ask for higher than normal deposits because if someone can’t come up with a deposit not only are you not protected but it’s also a pretty good sign they will have trouble making rent. And if any previous landlord has anything bad to say about them they should very likely be rejected. I budged on each of those issues multiple times and got burned every single time. If you are going to rent long term and manage it yourself, you absolutely cannot be a bleeding heart or you will get abused.
  21. I would suggest doing the math on BnB vs long term if it’s in a prime vacation rental area. The numbers on that have changed dramatically in the last 2 years. You can cash flow pretty good in some places now, and you don’t have to worry about getting a bad renter you have to deal with for a year.
  22. Contracts I’d be fine with Houston proposing to Correa: $45M/1yr $180M/6yr with $40M in yr 1 and an opt out after 2022 $280M/10yr with additional $5m/yr games played incentives and $2m/yr major awards incentives that bring total potential to $330M/10yr; $25M in year 1 with an opt out after 2022
  23. What a coup it would be for them to get Correa back for one year.
×
×
  • Create New...