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horn4life
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Everything posted by horn4life
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Man PLTR is closing in on where I sold the last of mine. Should honestly been buying it as a hedge vs my UVIX. The opposite of my initial play. But fuck I love the company very long term, but up $8 to $102 pre- May 5 earnings seems a little rich.
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I guess to me, the question I keep asking myself is... Will past fundamentals like unemployment rising and inflation rising cause a reassessment of high valuations? With so much computer trading I am trying to think if that fundamental aspect of past markets with rising unemployment and inflation is baked into the big boys models? IF so, does that not also indicate that if these fundamentals head in the wrong direction the computer trading models will begin to trim? Or is the modeling so current that the new AI based models have already used more current market actions and reactions to a greater degree in their trading models? I guess I am sort of asking is the AI modeling so good now that it is already discounting past trends? Or are the past trends so fundamental (like bounce backs after 20% losses rebounding sharply) in the programing that the recent data is given no more, or less weight, because of more recent timliness? If that makes sense?
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Bessent is the one smart guy in the administration. I actually agreed with a lot of what he said at the IMF, his calmness in the interview erases that blip downward. The sad thing is ALL of this could have been done in a thoughtful manner. Or course he has not been asked about an actual signed deal. Will be interesting to see if that comes up? Thank God he is around, or the markets would have crashed...
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SO I should not be listening to Bessent at the IMF? Dow down 200 points of peak as he explains the trump policies...
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Will good to know that today the President is not destabilizing the Central Bank! (today?) But that is most likely because the deals are not progressing, and what good is insider trading if you cannot hang onto the gains? I got hammered yesterday and I expect to go deeper red today, as the market is exuberant of the possibility of sanity from the White House. I have a different take, a combination on incremental surrender (good for markets), and the knowledge that negotiations are not a easy as predicted. Sort of like that easy Ukraine war ending negotiation that was promised repeatedly. So no deals this week? That's what a month of chaos without any progress? So NOT doing something really stupid is now what causes a nice rally? And a complete reversal of course on Powell in one mention sends us soaring again today. Today will be a great opportunity to regain losses and bail if you are long. IMHO. As I simply do not think the Trump Administration is going to abandon the policy that has sent the market into the meme zone. Instead you got the news you got yesterday BECAUSE the administration knows the markets are a meme off Trump's words. What if all the reasonableness was simply trying to not have the gains of insider trading wiped out so quickly? Anyone find this assertion completely out of the realm of possibility? Also think about if no announcement and unemployment numbers moving upwards tomorrow? I assume no deal is sight, and that is why we got what we got yesterday.
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I literally grew up on Ron Franklin. He was a Houston TV Sports staple when I was growing up, then he was the voice of the Horns... Sucks he was only 79, covid related pneumonia... Oilers and then the Horns... I need to go back and listen to some old calls.
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So I have enjoyed the planting of the flag on the flaws in the Dow as an index, rather than the basic decline of all indexes. In this, the Dow is not unique, it is falling along with all US stock indexes. Does that mean somehow all the indexes are flawed? All I know is betting against the DOW has me up like 60% on my invested capital this year, So a decent quarter for sure by anyone's standards, and the best quarter I have ever had by far and away. Is it because I was betting against a flawed index? Or because I identified flawed policy and bet against that? I think we all know the answer to that one. Wait until the market starts to see the inflation and unemployment numbers that were absolutely the single most likely scenario of Trump's tariff scheme start creeping in. Last week saw the first blip of folks staying on the rolls longer. This week we should see the first signs on inflation creep. And the solution? Press Powell to come in and save the child from his own flawed policies, before any actual data is put forth. As like ANYONE with a brain knows, tariffs are inflationary! But wait... we have been told tariffs are a miracle cure, and they do not cause inflation! So does Powell act on what history has ALWAYS told us regarding tariffs? Or does he believe the unserious claims of the executive branch implementing policy?
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So fuck... I went full CR. apologies.
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I was thinking that there was a Star Trek that reminded me of our current times. Look up "the Squire of Gothos." If you are an old like me and still remember shit. Hilarious that Liberace is playing today's Trump role.
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I honestly do not think Trump understands why his whiny, (fix it Daddy,) attacks on Powell are so concerning to the markets. Stock AND Bonds!!!!! This is where you wish there were more strong smart people around him. But like I said am betting against a bad CEO, surrounded by uniquely unqualified management nearly universally across the board. Nothing like taking a little breathing room from a 90 day tariff reprieve... and then upping the ante with a destruction of the stability of the US Central Bank. I hope like fuck I am wrong, and I get burned bad on my short bet. But I am very, very afraid, that we are about the go back in time financially about 3 years in two trading days in the not too distant future. Again hope I am fucking wrong.
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I forget who the analyst who was on Bloomberg pre-market. She was the derivative analyst for somebody, but she was talking about 5 levels of market fear (that was somebody else's thesis) Where we are at level two, and that the movement to level three was a usually violently downward. As I was driving away this morning made me wish I had taped her, as she had some other forward looking indicators she was watching, that I wanted to write down... She had a good analogy about the markets operating at a fixed level of a 30+ VIX for an extended period of time. It's sort of like an elevated heart rate. Over time it simply is not good for the patient due to the constant additional stress. Anyhow need to try and search her down later. I think there is indeed too much optimism, and some of it is political in nature, which is natural. And yes Fox News no longer really does news. Hell watch their "business" channel and try to glean any useful information? So for me, as a person betting against the market, networks specifically trying not to make their viewers informed regarding market risks (besides the gold commercials I used to laugh at) is good for me. When it is the most popular News Channel in the country? That's good for me too. As when reality does hit, it's going to be violent. As the wake up call to reality is going to be very, very rude. That's why I honestly pay attention to FOX's Sunday coverage. When the hard questions start getting asked there, it's time for me to move out of being short in all likelihood. But you think of the drop it took to start sort of asking moderately tough questions... Like I said I think a good degree of the current optimism is politically based, and Fox is sort of like a leading indicator, when tough questions come into play... for Republican guests...
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SO interesting day today. Looks like there is actually some degree of decoupling from Crypto and the Dow. Up until today most of the time Bitcoin has been a leading indicator for the DOW (argue of the intricacies the DOW all you want). So to me that is a bit interesting... As to the why (if there is a decoupling beyond today)? Is crypto actually becoming what it was sold as, an alternative to traditional stocks and banking? Or is this a blip, an anomaly? Anyhow what I am interested in is what DIRECTION is the DOW headed? I see it as drifting sideways or slowly downward with another steep sell off in the future as the hope wanes. Right now I think the market is operating in a place of caution, and cautious optimism. As I so not believe that realistic expectations regarding inflation and tariffs is barely baked into the market at this point. Instead all focus is on trying to rid the Trump Economy of the one steady hand at the tiller, Fed Chair Powell. Rather than focus on the inflation that is coming, Powell is supposed to be the cure to bad Trump Economic policy. We are just getting into the beginnings of bad fiscal policy, as the great big beautiful deficit busting bill winds it way though. I still regret not buying those $560 puts on Tesla... but I would have already cashed out. It will be interesting to see the sorts of guidance we get as earnings begin rolling in this week. What I am curious about is PLTR earnings next week. I expect another revenue beat, but that valuation... But does the DOW close up or down from weeks close at this week's end?
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Right now I think you honestly have sort of the opposite effect going on right now. Youo have shit ton of folks that really, really want to believe, that the roaring economy they predicted a few months ago will come to fruition. It might. All the trade deals might get done, interest rates will fall, and there could be no inflation from tariffs, and the near universal scrub off of value to 401K's will be quickly forgotten. This is an absolute possibility. To be honest though I am a contrarian. I tend to look for the worst case scenario, try to account for that, then go forward. I do not think that the stock market has fully accounted for how the tariffs are going to affect a multitude of areas. And a lot of the effects will be more gradual, but slow and steady. I also think there is some simple psychology involved, in that most folks investing today have not see serious downturns in the economy. Most haven't seen the collapse of the energy sector and the destruction of Houston, now the Home market collapse with mass foreclosures and destruction across the board of property values. So those thoughts are completely alien to a lot of investors (people in general.) Anyhow I think we still have an overly optimistic investor class right now. Hell I want to believe too! I like being able to bet on companies I feel will profit going foward, and increase their profits and thus stock price. I see opportunities to trade a lot right now, but I am having a tougher time finding stocks to truly invest in? MP is sort of a good example for me. A company I think/thought should benefit from a more insular policy regarding rare minerals. But did it went up a hair down a hair and then drifted downward. Peter Thiel joins the board, stock gets a nice bounce. A bounce big enough to get the stock price back to where I originally bought in, before my stop losses bounced it. But off the bounce the stock pulled back and it would still be a loser for me. But it SHOULD be a good stock in the Trump Economy. But it too is directionless because of unpredictability, at least short term. Anyhow my views are pretty clear now, I simply do not think we have seen the worst of things. I could VERY EASILY be wrong. Optimism could overrun me. BUT... I see gradual inflation, gradual rise in unemployment rolls, and a Fed handcuffed by unpredictable government policy. I mean think about it. We came about 10 hours from the market going free fall, before Trumps reversed course. Bessent was thrilled that the markets still were operational!?!?! But we had to get that close for reality to get through? That is sort of scary to me. Anyhow I really, really want to go long. I just do not think we have seen the bottom yet. And hell, if I am wrong, I only lose house money at this point. But over the 90 day stoppage, the effects of tariff disruption are going to be more and more apparent. And then the word "transitory" will be the word drinking game that will get you faced out of your mind.
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So you can't make as many deals, your client can't make as many deals. Wonder if that will come into play in the coming months profits? 😉 Saw the first little stickiness of unemployment. And was strong consumer spending a plus on forward momentum? Or a rush to push future planned consumption forward in time to avoid tariffs? I know two friends who did just that on cars they were contemplating, but pulled trigger for fear of price increases. On the long side of the coin, a deal would spike the markets. Hell the content of the deal would not matter at all, just a deal. Some sort of forward movement indicating a light at the end of the tunnel, regarding stable predictability. So if I am the WH, I give Japan a great deal saying there deal was ONLY because they were first in. When the reality might well be... we gotta get a deal... any deal. Doesn't matter how you get to point B, the market wil love it. As the details are looked at, against the premises initially stated and making these tariffs a national emergency? I doubt the math is reflective of that, which will take a lot longer for the market to digest. Anyhow interesting times of unpredictability we live in.
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So, do you agree or disagree with this statement. CEO's will be less pessimistic and less critical of the governments role with tariffs in their forward looking guidance. Simply as I think they know that, if they say something overly honest (thus critical) they could face swift retribution from the White House, in a manner we have not seen before. True? or False? If this is true, then a more flowery picture of the economy going forward will be repeated again and again. Instead of giving brutally honest forward looking guidance. I realize there is always some fairy dust sprinkled in. But I think we are about to see some of the least honest forward looking guidance we have ever heard ...
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HaHa for a second I thought it was Port A... But no marina angle like that, I am aware of. Did catch my first trout in the surf in 18 months after sacrificing a year of my life taking care of my folks. And walked into a place today, called Grander Distributing in Georgetown. Because I liked their Marlin logo, had a mount of "the grander" (1000 lb) monster hanging in the lobby. I should have take a picture of that bad boy. Made my excitement over a 19-3/4 trout and it's little head shake, sort of
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If I did not need to tow this is where I would be looking. BUT --- I am also NEVER going to buy the first year of a new transmission or engine. Engineers are brilliant. But my I went for 6 speed tranny in my 2020 Silverado and my BIL got the new 10 speed... thank GOD he bought an extended warranty. $14K replacement... at 57K if my memory is correct. I just don't trust shit until it's in the field a year or two. Early Ford Turbo F-150 comes to mind as well on early issues. But after the shake out, a good design. IMHO
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Meant to post earlier, but my thesis is still the same. When I ask, How many deals by the weekend? I ask it because we retreated, and kicked the can down the road for 90 days. My assertion is the ask is too big, and the retreat too damn quick to get any deals quickly, unless its from partners so weak is will be meaningless. I think this is going to now be a slow descent. Slow brutal and gradual. I will say I forgot PLTR's earning were today. Glad I dumped my puts on Friday, that would have been very expensive. I took a small bath the last few days. but big swings I am getting used to. It's staying the course longer term. There is definitely some "Vegas Mentality" where you are playing on 'house money" and your risk aversion is much less. So numbers that would have freaked me 2 months ago, are simply swings of a meme administration. We honestly have not see ANY of the bad result of this stupidity, But it is coming. the drag on earnings and forward guidance are coming. And why would China negotiate with us? We are like an Army in disarray, just sit back and let the strategic mistakes of your opponent play out. If I was Xi that's what I would do. You know what is sad. I want so bad to be long! But you guys let me know, when the destruction of US household wealth, is worth the shock and awe plan to get folks to the table? Add listen to what the Administration tells you is happening, versus what is actually happening. I think to most folks outside the US, it appears we honestly do not know what to do smartly to get to the place we want on trade or tariffs. Hope I am wrong for all of you that are long. But right now... I only see confusion, and lack of clarity, for like... months...?
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So I am curious. What do you think the over under is for trade deals for the Sunday news shows? With 70 countries in line, and Bessent tossing sweeteners today to the first one in....This will be 2-1/2 weeks since "liberation day?" Despite claims of 70 countries calling and begging, will there be deals. Or maybe two, from the smallest and weakest countries of all. Mainly because Trump has shown himself to be weak. Both strategically and with a steady retreat on his boldness. So why make a deal now when your opponent keeps retreating from his prior unmovable positions? SO HOW MANY TRADE DEALS BY THE SUNDAY SHOWS KIDS?
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Well did manage to catch a few fish at at the coast. Only one nice trout and a shit ton of huge whiting. good eating but small filets. Mid morning Friday I was doing good up Around $13K in two days. Dumped my PLTR Puts at like 2:30 Friday and instead of doubling my oney and selling made made $100, but was afraid of PLTR bouncing this AM. I thought I was going to be holding only 300 shares of UVIX this AM. I thought when I looked at 2:40? leaving the beach that my $69 and $72 calls I sold were going to be exercised on at least the $69 calls I sold. So holding 700 shares this AM, Down $7K this AM, putting me into the Red ON my "Undertaker" purchases) by around $4500 if the open is down $10.50 ish. Anyhow I will be losing today for sure on UVIX. Definitely eroding my gains, but main thing for me is not to wash out them out completely. Still am very unsure we have seen the bottom. As eventually the unemployment and inflation numbers are going to creep in and some of the illusions will wash out on those I think. Or I will be wrong. Tariffs will not increase inflation, capital investment on monster projects will roar, and unemployment will stay at the great level the administration inherited (again), and interest rates will drift downward... All of which are a possibility. But I am trying to figure out which one of those will actually come to fruition. Anyhow good luck to all of you today. Good day for longs!
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To be fair those were free and you could not be prosecuted if you took the money without need.
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Oh... I was wondering what the push downward was. House got step one of massive deficit budget bill one step closer forward. One stupidity pulls slightly back as another strongly pushes forward to fuck up the economy. So, is there any history on how economies perform over 4 years with a 35-40 VIX?
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Well... I guess we can all look forward to Trump's fix for social security. Too bad I don't know how to bet against that and make money like I do for tariff stupidity.
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So fuck - now I sort of have to pay attention to my positions. Fucking rising so fast that Trump might completely surrender to Xi by this afternoon. That would burn me again. That was me at 4:30. Wife thought I was nuts, then I started buying. Already ran past my calls but if it holds 20% in two days? Gotta like that.
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WuLaw is basically good guy, but his Economics are more of the Navarro variety. And I can see getting really excited over a "win." Especially when you thought you were going to be making big bank writing mortgages, writing deals with a 5 in the front of them. So, I imagine there is a lot of stress for everyone in the RE business, especially lending. Now you have potential buyers with less net worth in nearly every case than they had two weeks ago. Risk is everywhere, and rates on the 30 year moved up?!?! 10 year not going where you thought. That.s not side investment account money, that's how you make a living money. So I give him a pass on getting so excited on seeing some real hope. I also like to hear from opposing views. I also wish that when folks come to this thread they do insert at least a little bit of prediction, question or something specific! beyond the obvious political aspects of this. Hey, I got run over in covid as I was more of a newbie, and was stupidly not in the market a month before the VIX started moving. As I was the first person talking about the impending doom as any bad info getting out of China means really bad. And I had a big stack in the bank looking to buy another flip house. I got smoked as I came in late and the Fed saved the day. I knew the Fed was unlikely to save on a disaster made by an individual, when the individual could change course. I had the losses that educated me better on the Fed's powers. I sort of see the market as vacillating, getting the occasional move upwards but more of a slow drift downward. UNLESS - We have a slew of deals with a bunch of countries starting today and running through the weekend. It will be interesting to see. Or will we see a weekend of Sunday News shows of mostly incoherence when it comes to the math? If my calls expire OTM I will carry some positions through the weekend. So how many deals inked by Next Wednesday? Now that everyone that is negotiating with him knows who was the first to blink under pressure? Does that influence negotiating strategy, when your strategy was strength? Or am I misreading that? *** What really sucks is we saw what could have been today regarding inflation. What a fucking shame.
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