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gmr548

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Everything posted by gmr548

  1. Interesting. I didn't know that. 2023 was the best year Dems have had in FL in a while. Something to keep an eye on.
  2. Wisconsin is one of the two or three truly 50/50 states in the nation and it's not a super favorable state for Democrats, demographically. It's like 80% white and less than a third of adults have degrees. Democrats have scraped by in a couple of elections and it's not unwinnable but I don't see how it's any more than a tossup. Michigan is similar on the education front but more diverse and a little less religious. PA slightly more diverse and less religious than MI, and is better educated; and the growth of that state is in the Philadelphia metro and eastern PA where people - particularly immigrants and racial minorities - are moving in from NY. I think you can make a credible argument that those are blue tilts, but they're close enough that they'll go as independents go and it is too early to know how that is going to break.
  3. I definitely think the apparent presumption in some circles that it will be Trump is very premature. I get Biden's approval is relatively low but you're looking for people who voted against him in the last election to flip back to Trump after he'll no doubt spend his time doing and saying insane shit on the campaign trail; and you're looking for it in large enough volume to not just erase margins of victory in 2020 but make up for cycling in of younger voters and dying off of older voters relative to 2020 that will be a net benefit to Biden. Kari Lake was less than 20k votes from being governor all the same. It will be close.
  4. New low? Would this even crack the top ten?
  5. This is the map as it stands to me and honestly it is going to take a significant change in economic fundamentals or a major black swan event to change it. I think the only real hot take is I think NC is another legitimate tossup. Continues to be a leader inward migration and it's more of the garden variety HCOL market professional relocating than being a MAGA beacon like TX or FL. The economic fundamentals actually scream comfortable Biden reelection, but we're in a very polarized environment, he got caught holding the bag on inflation, the impossible Israel-Palestine situation is flaring up, and he's 117 years old. People really hate Donald Trump though and I buy that the electorate will start to remember that more intensely as he gets more media coverage and it becomes crystal clear to the average American that we're running it back. 160mm voters and it probably comes down to < 100k aggregate votes in a few of these tossup states again. Democracy!
  6. What if your first question is about the meat clock? Asking for a friend.
  7. Nevada's got a Republican Governor right now so they've won something. Tend to agree that it's a D tilt; it'll be a tough out, but beating incumbents is hard. Cruz will win Texas by 4-6 points. He can only lose if he alienates Cult 45. He's already endorsed Trump so I am assuming he'll stay in line the next 10 months and it'll be a non-event. Florida, I mean, there are some bright spots for Dems in the past 12 months if you squint but yeah I can't see it with Trump on the ballot. Senate is a heavy R overall. I mostly agree with @Js1's assessment of individual races, though I'd move WV to Safe R. But those lean/likely D's include a few that are just slight leans, and FL-T are really likely R. Dems have to make sure they take no losses in AZ, NV, WI, MI, and PA; win tossup-at-best defensive races in MT and OH, and win the presidency. Long odds on a parlay like that. Lose even once in any of those and it's a GOP senate. Biden and Schumer need to get busy with judicial vacancies.
  8. Savea is a good add given the context of what's needed and available. There's no debating the room needed an upperclassman body - for those shitting on the take, what's the better alternative? I'd have liked to get Caldwell too but between grades/compliance and the Bo Davis departure it didn't come to pass. So it goes. I assume Texas is done in the portal until spring unless Muhammed wants in. Would be great if he does but even if he goes elsewhere they still put together an excellent portal class. Long way to go but I think this is a legitimate championship contending roster next season and I'm really excited to see how the spring shakes out.
  9. Zero, she's criticized him. SD Governor is your female VP nominee if they go that route.
  10. I think the lege and those that choose to work for the kind of people that write these bills are just too stupid to craft something that would hold up.
  11. Okay, I'm convinced. This is really the master race.
  12. If Trump were to die before the election his base would think the deep state killed him and I have no idea what they would do beyond get grifted by Don Jr and crew. I don't mean that in only terms of voting, I mean there would be tens of millions of loose cannons, cult members without a leader. I would expect violence. I think you're way too in the box here. Electorally, who knows. The timing would be really important given the logistics of getting other names on the ballot. Rs might suffer depressed turnout on the MAGA side but Haley could pull center right voters from the Biden coalition. It's a low probability event so not going to waste a ton of time on in.
  13. I am with @Wulaw Horn. My bet is the direction is upward prices. The demand suppression from rates is transitory (and people tend to adjust to the new normal if it stays in place long enough anyway). There is a structural supply/demand imbalance.
  14. We'll see. There's a path to victory and I certainly think the presumption that it will be Trump is very premature. 10 months is an eternity though and there is a real antipathy to Biden, justified or not. Honestly it'll probably come down to a five figure margin across a couple different states as the past two have. Any time you're talking about margins that narrow at the tipping point it is basically a toss up.
  15. Consumer sentiment just took the biggest two-month upward jump in my lifetime. There's still a ways to go for people's perception to catch up to reality, there are of course legitimate structural economic issues to address, and the economy needs to hold up for 10 more months... But with all those caveats that's probably the best news the Biden 2024campaign has received to date.
  16. Know what you're getting to and don't pay $140 to pick a seat that is identical to all the rest?
  17. No it wont. They will all come around, Ted Cruz style.
  18. But what you have to understand is FOX News said she is bad. And my uncle said so on Facebook too, right after he brilliantly protected his privacy by copy-pasting a paragraph about not taking his photos than had only two or three misspellings. While it depends on the market, in the current climate yes because there has been a surge in new supply. This has not really been the case for a while. If I were an operator would I be playing hardball on lease renewal increases and letting people walk in this environment, only to end up leasing the unit at a similar rate to what I could have renewed at after incurring turnover costs and loss of rental income? No, probably not, but it does seem to be the case that some are. Most of 2024 is likely going to be pretty flat in terms of rents as that supply surge carries into the new year but I expect rents to start increasing notably again by 2025. In a relative sense it's a pretty good time to be a renter, for once. Also CPI rent data sucks in general and is probably inflating (hehe) inflation numbers a bit, just as it likely undersold inflation on the up-slope.
  19. Good for them. I hope they vote.
  20. Well, other Americans are to blame. They voted for other people.
  21. I desperately wanted this to be incorrect but this will be true of at least some 18 year old voters. Not really a "massive cohort" but really the point is I feel old as fuck.
  22. If Texas had won this year it would have been with several starters (QB, WR, CB, off the top of my head) that "defected" from various schools. Not to mention Kelvin Banks, who basically fell into Texas's lap out of luck and decommitted from Oregon only after Mario Cristobal left Oregon. Worthy also had to ask for a NLI release from Michigan. Do you think Michigan didn't have key transfers? Georgia the past couple years? Washington? TCU? It's an essential part of the game now.
  23. You are talking about trying to appease a group that thinks building s 1,900+ mile wall is a good idea and that the country on the other side will pay for it.
  24. Really fascinating account of covering Trump campaign during the 2016 election cycle. He has written other books I want to get to and is a good follow on social media. @Brisketexan may live on the ledge, but he rents it from Sexton.
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