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gmr548

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Everything posted by gmr548

  1. Huskies are duck hunting out here my goodness. Oregon has to try to use that aggression against them at some point
  2. Saban let Milroe throw on 2nd and 15 to virtually seal the game because it was situationally advantageous. Sark took it out of Ewers hands with two plays to get nine yards.
  3. I was referring to the whole team. At this point we know this is a very talented team with a very high ceiling that struggles to put it all together on a consistent basis. That’s not the end of the world against the remaining schedule though.
  4. Texas lost the game a dozen different ways on the field and on the headsets. We’ll remember the early Ewers INT, 0 points from 1st/goal from the 1, and kicking the FG instead of going for it on 4th down and then the prevent you from winning defense on the last possession; but any number of things beyond those could have changed the outcome. I think it’s both. This team is visibly better in so many ways and no doubt has the potential to win actual hardware, and yet still consistently found ways to lose in the biggest game of the year. And it happened against OU, which after the last decade+ is really the only game that can still get an emotional reaction out of many of us.
  5. Card was a significantly higher rated passer than Ewers last year and should have been given a chance to come in and win the Oklahoma State game in relief. I don’t think there was ever a serious “Card should start and be the long term answer” cohort.
  6. Yes but also if you haven’t played a clean game six games in, that’s what you are. Those mental errors aren’t going to magically get cleaned up halfway through the year.
  7. They also did it because they knew they could. Running the QB has been a blind spot for PK. If there is a rematch they will do it again and it will be just as effective.
  8. Man I missed some PAC 12 after dark. Stanford is terrible, it strains credulity that anyone could blow a 29-0 lead against them.
  9. It’s just that they’re 4-1, went 3-0 OOC with a P5 road win, and have only lost to a ranked team that has 3 double digit P5 wins and has only lost once, on the road at a top ten team, in a competitive-ish game with a backup QB at that. I haven’t watched them to be honest but any P5 team with that record at this juncture is going to get an assumption of baseline competence. My impression from afar is that they are not that special and Texas should handle BYU easily if they play well. Maybe I’d be more worried if the game was in Provo. Analytics seem not to like them either.
  10. You guys hand wringing about tie breakers haven’t watched a down of the rest of the Big 12, have you? If Texas wins out they will be in Arlington. If Texas drops one more, which I think is probably going to be the case, they are still likely in Arlington. It isn’t likely anyone aside from OU or Texas ends up better than 6-3 in conference play.
  11. You understand that these in fact make the final series even more of a blatant fuck up right? Sark had the right plan and deviated at the very end because Texas took a sack on first down.
  12. Pretty much the underdog except Michigan over Ohio State and Washington over Oregon
  13. Exactly. Auburn to that point, including that game, was 1-4 (25%) on the year and 10-16 (62%) for his career from 40+. The 47 yard kick was his longest of the year and two shy of a career long. He hit a great kick but it was far from a given. His career percentage tells you there’s a 38% chance you miss. Even if you cut that in half for sake of argument, let’s say because he hit a 45 yarder earlier, that’s still a 19% chance you miss. And then of course you have to factor in the odds OU then takes the ball and scores regardless of outcome; I don’t know how you quantify that but it is obviously significant. Quinn Ewers averaged 9.4 YPA on the day on 83% completion. On the season 9.3 YPA on 70% completion. Full field to work with, not constricted by the red zone. Kick block team on the field. The odds of you completing a 4 yard pass are just as good as making the kick and the latter has the upside of removing the possibility of losing in regulation and increasing the odds on the FG by making it shorter (you likely get inside 40 yards running another play or two). The right choice in terms of win probability is actually plain as day when you lay it out.
  14. Nah. Auburn has struggled from that distance all year (props to him by the way). You were never going to get a better deal than four yards to win the game, or at least take a regulation loss off the table. Probability of losing skyrockets by lining up for the FG. Felt iffy in the moment and an 100% convinced now. I knew that in my gut when it happened, or at least that Texas deserved the L. Still, after everything it was all right there. Smh.
  15. Finished my rewatch, don’t want to beat belabored points to death but things I didn’t necessarily appreciate as much live as I do now: The backwards pass on the opening KO was definitely there so I understand why Red fielded it now. Should have thrown it but even though he didn’t holy shit the facemask. Absolute boneheaded pick by Ewers on the first turnover. Worthy on the inside slant goes 15 yards and maybe scores if he gets out of one tackle. Needs to slide to avoid fumbles like the one he had. Otherwise he was very good given the circumstances. Should have been given a chance to win the game. Sweat and Hill had very strong games on defense. Ford and Gbenda, honeys what is you doing? Robertson and Connor are a massive liability pores together. I hope we’re done with the bench Majors stuff now because interior OL issues are about to turn up to 11. Brooks is a special back. I was wrong about him. He’s not Bijan but he’s going to go down as the next in line of stand out Texas RBs. OU left 7 points and a couple of really important money down conversions that they had set up, but botched, on the field. Just as we feel like Texas could have won they are right to feel like they could have blown it open. That’s how these back and forth games go. Sark lost the game on the last drive. Should have slowed down as they got to midfield, certainly after the Bowman injury. But more importantly, Sark is a fucking loser for not going for it on that last fourth down. I kind of felt that way live but I didn’t quite appreciate how lucky the defense had been to get those stops leading up to that. The game was over as soon as that decision was made.
  16. Finished re-watching the OU game (attended live so it’s a new perspective) and I wish I hadn’t. The losing mentality from Sark to not go for it on that last 4th and 4 is nearly beyond words. Yes the clock management was bad once they crossed midfield and Bowman got hurt, but they still wound up with the chance to get 4 yards to win the game - or in terms Sark would understand, not lose the game in regulation - and declined to take that chance. To do that, with the way Ewers had rebounded and was feeling it, with Brooks getting his way against OU, with Xavier Worthy at your disposal… all against OU’s kick block team. Just wow. They called the TO with 12-15 seconds left, plenty of time to check into a better play. Unbelievable.
  17. I’d push back on Conner displaying baseline competency, granted I’ve only been able to rewatch the first half so far. He was dogshit on the rewatch. I can understand an injury degrading his play but if he is hurt he needs to sit. If Neto can’t get on the field in front of him in this state, he is going to transfer or is a complete bust.
  18. I know Sark is big on composure, not getting over emotional, blah blah blah But if that isn’t displayed prominently in the facility, that’s coaching malpractice.
  19. 3rd down dive call had no chance. As mentioned above, Banks got worked, and Texas is using four guys to block two OU DT's. The Lehman/Ikard video actually has a good breakdown of the whole series, but they pointed out that OU had a subtle shift in DL angles here that made this same dive call DOA. They bet on Sark going back to the first down call and they were correct. That Brooks got to the two here is an achievement. First down maybe gets in if Brooks makes a jump cut. Second down even maybe had a chance with better execution on the pull/lead from Campbell/Murphy, or if the OU DT is tied up long enough for Texas to push the pile. Fourth down, game of inches and there was of course the facemask. This third down play was permafucked form the start.
  20. I'd probably exempt Kelvin Banks in the interest of not wanting to get Ewers killed but otherwise yes.
  21. Most of these are not getting fixed in the middle of the season. Teams are what they are at this point. OL interior is maybe the lone exception if Robertson/Hutson can grow into the center spot, but it was already a weakness. Hayden Connor was just dreadful on Saturday and has been a weak link most of the year. If they aren't looking at getting Neto some run at LG, I worry about his development curve. Interior OL is likely to be a weak point all year and every team that doesn't attack it relentlessly is stupid. The rest of them, I mean, they are the same problems that have been exhibited since Sark got here. They're structural problems under Sark/PK/Ewers that have been better masked this season.
  22. An unblocked screen was a hair too predictable, but Sark obviously didn't want to actually have blocking involved. Obvious solution.
  23. OU is not typically an underdog coming off a 49-0 L the previous year and hearing they aren't going to be able to get it done vs Texas because they haven't played anyone.
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