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gmr548

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Everything posted by gmr548

  1. This has always been the game I have the least apprehension about going in. It’s a big time rivalry game that is rarely any more than a tilt either way. Accepting the toss-upy nature of it is kind of liberating. We’ll see what happens. Liking the matchup this year more than most helps. The week before always drags on long as hell though, goddamn. Friday afternoon needs to get here.
  2. I mean okay sure, no one is arguing against that but that isn’t really relevant and doesn’t mean they don’t have some good players. Alfred Collins, Vernon Broughton, Trill Carter, and Anthony Hill don’t start at Texas either and are all contributors in the front 6-7. My point that OU actually has run into a pretty stout DL pairing and didn’t light the world on fire. That doesn’t go against your assertion that the Texas DL is beyond anything they’ve seen. Of course the Texas front is better than Cincinnati. I don’t what you’re trying to argue about.
  3. Cincinnati actually has a pair of 300+ pound stud DL. They dont’t go 5 deep with 300 pound athletes like Texas does but their two starters can play. Corleone had a sack and 2 TFL against OU. I think they have a pretty good starting ILB too but he missed the game. Now, one can infer what they will with OU averaging 3.0 ypc in that game.
  4. I actually agree that the bell curve of possible outcomes has a long tail in Texas by 2+ possession land. What a world.
  5. My base case is Texas wins via controlling the LOS, but OU keeps it interesting with some big hitting pass plays over the top. Things that could change that, which are very possible, are turnover issues and/or OU getting really exotic defensively and the OL struggling to diagnose and block those pressure packages. Either/or could lead to the defense getting worn out while the offense stalls and give OU the upper hand. I don't think the Texas secondary is that good and I expect OU to move the ball a lot between the 20's and hit over the top a few times. I do trust the Texas defense in the red zone though.
  6. Most of the various predictive analytics - ESPN, Sagarin, SP+, KFord, FEI, etc. have the two teams within a couple points of one another. A couple favor Texas, a couple OU. ESPN one you’re showing has OU rated 1.6 points better than Texas. Which is to say the analytics rate the game as a tossup. 54-46 reflects that. That’s not a meaningful departure from 50-50. I happen to think Vegas is correct in having Texas a slight but decided favorite, but don’t read that as “OMG ESPN predicts an OU win!”
  7. Yeah, everything moves slow in the morning. Getting there via DART is easy enough (Uber has hit the same traffic issues as driving in my experience) but coupons, food/beer lines, entrance to the game… all slow as hell. Just a critical mass of people. Game Day being set up on site will take up that much more space slow things down even more. If you aren’t queuing up to get into the Cotton Bowl by like 10:15 you will miss kick. Honestly, eat breakfast before, bring a flask if so inclined (they also sell beer in the Cotton Bowl now), and then get your fair fare after the game.
  8. Makes sense. At the very least some DL and safety help is going to be needed. They may want to go get another rotation LB and/or CB. On offense, TE sticks out as a position of need assuming Sanders leaves and they may want to go get an experienced WR to head up a very talented but young room. May want another RB depending on what happens with that room. Punter will be open and if there's an upgrade at kicker that's tempting.
  9. Thanks, what can I say? Mobile be like that sometimes. Now if you have a good recommendation on where to fix my sarcasm meter, I'd appreciate it.
  10. This is one of the dumbest things I’ve read on here in a while. Peasley was wisely held out of a buy-a-win nonconference game to make sure he was healthy for conference play. Shapen was declared out for the Texas game weeks before. Jalon Daniels did not quit on a conference game because he got to DKR and discovered Texas is bigger and faster than Kansas. His team was undefeated and ranked, and a strong showing for him personally could help advance his career.
  11. Even more so because of the quality of the OU teams. 2013 OU was, what, like 8-4? 2013 Texas was a half in Waco away from a Big 12 championship. Meanwhile 2015 OU was an 11-1 playoff team led by a future Heisman trophy winner and #1 pick. It’s damn nice to be in this position, that’s for sure. I feel like this is a function of OU simply being favored more often. I’m not going to go do the homework on that though.
  12. OU is a big play passing game. Some of those are going to happen. The keys are: 1.) Control the LOS. Keep the run and screen game bottled up and have them spending a lot of time in third and 7+. Get pressure and disrupt timing in the dropback passing game. 2.) Make the stop and live to fight another series. A 40 yard completion resulting in a FG in the red zone is way different than a 65 yard TD. 3.) Get help from your offense. Control the ball, get a lead. Put the pressure on them to keep up and make them one dimensional later in the game
  13. But there’s just something magical about feeling the old, rusted toilet seats of the Cotton Bowl pressed up against your ass.
  14. The thing about top 10 teams is there has to be 10 of them. I don’t think Alabama is a tier 1 team but sitting here looking at the rest of the pack (and having a data point with the Ole Miss game) I’m not convinced I’d take anyone in that 11-25 range to beat them straight up. Maybe USC (speaking of overrated garbage) or UNC would get them with big QB performances. (Edit: should have mentioned Duke here too which is just strange to say) Georgia, meh. I agree their schedule is garbage and they probably aren’t getting challenged until maybe the SEC championship game. But they went in the road and won a rivalry game by nonchalantly going +17 in quarters 2-4 after Auburn jumped on them with their hair on fire. If Texas did that we’d be circle jerking about grit and toughness. Washington and Texas and particular have their chances to really separate in my book over the next couple weeks but to me this week wasn’t cause for any big shifts in the top 5.
  15. Definitely waiting for the deets on this before jumping into the prediction thread. He is a huge matchup problem for OU. Almost any outcome is on the table in this game to begin with, and especially with the up and down nature of the Texas offense. That’s really what it comes down to for me. If both teams play their A game Texas is better, hence the line being set where it is. I think the spread may even be a little low in a true A game vs A game scenario. I think the downside in this game is entirely internal - what Texas team and Sark are you going to get? OU is going to come out with their hair on fire after last year and will throw the kitchen sink at Texas with their game plan. They will play their best game of the year and they will crawl over broken glass to win. Can Texas match that? Will they execute or will they be dropping passes, sailing throws, and taking dumb pre snap penalties? How slow of a start do they have with their first 11am kick?
  16. I didn’t add or remove any teams this week but did some rearranging in the 10-25 portion. I think you could reasonably rank the top 5 in basically any order and would draw the line on real contenders somewhere between 6 and 9. Ultimately despite Texas beating a team I have ranked I left them at 5 because KU’s ranking, to me, is associated with Jalon Daniels. I don’t think they should be knocked too much for the loss but I don’t think it’s some huge win for Texas. Moved Duke up despite the loss (to fill in for a couple teams who I did penalize for losing). I had them at like 15-16 and I don’t think you penalize their ranking for losing to a top 7 team in a competitive game. I think they acquitted themselves well. Utah continues to be very difficult to rank. I think they are a playoff contender when at full strength but they are so far from that and I’m not sure we’ll see it at all. Oklahoma just moving steadily up the board almost by default, I still don’t really know what to make of them but we’ll sort that out this week. Fuck’em. 1.) Georgia 2.) Florida State 3.) Ohio State 4.) Washington 5.) Texas 6.) Michigan 7.) Notre Dame 8.) Penn State 9.) Oregon 10.) Alabama 11.) North Carolina 12.) USC 13.) Duke 14.) Miami 15.) Ole Miss 16.) LSU 17.) Oklahoma 18.) Washington State 19.) Kansas State 20.) Oregon State 21.) Clemson 22.) Utah 23.) Louisville 24.) Kansas 25.) Fresno State
  17. Jalon Daniels out. Oh no, we suck again? Nah, all good.
  18. I’m bummed for Daniels and hope he gets well quickly, and I wanted Texas to have that test (although that could have made game script quite different in hindsight). I’m skeptical they would have kept the option in the bag after realizing its effectiveness.
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