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henrygandorf

Certifiably Surly
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Everything posted by henrygandorf

  1. we watched this when it first came out and weekly until it ended - we loved it. highly recommend. rafe spall (the husband) is great and might look familiar as one of mark baum's (steve carrell's) team in the big short, along with a largely unknown jeremy strong. there are a lot of other familiar faces. the best friend in the first couple seasons left the show to star in minx (ophelia lovibond). the adoption lady went on to play the queen in the final 2 seasons of the crown. rafe's dad in the show was great in poldark (if you're a poldark fan). even dr sharon fieldstone from ted lasso pops up in a couple of episodes.
  2. you know when you come back to a thread and there are like 5 new pages and you're like holy shit something must've happened.
  3. yep. and if context was needed, kelli ward ran the gop in az.
  4. eh, conventional wisdom would suggest it, because she was a "democrat" recently. but they fucking hate her there.
  5. just to continue this as a "good-faith" conversation, there were some very important local races in 2022. governors, secretary of states, election boards, supreme courts, state lege, etc. for those who are/were scared of local politicians in key states "stealing" the election for the party they support, these races were very important if trump tried any shit like he did in 2020. these races all went to dems and those states are largely protected. ohio, florida, texas are all red states and it doesn't matter. pennsylvania, michigan, wisconsin, north carolina, arizona, georgia, nevada. trump has to win almost all of these. biden has to win 3-4. gen-z had a lot of fun in 2020 and 2022. do the math.
  6. i'm only familiar with his constant pants-dropping on the baseball board and near flawless record of incorrect predictions. guess i'm just curious by nature.
  7. trump lost by 3mm votes in 2016 against one of the most unpopular candidates in american presidential election history. he lost by 7mm votes in 2020 against a middle-of-the-road, boring old white guy who's been in politics for 50 years. a guy who (if this board is any indication) was most dem voters 6th or 7th choice. trump is supremely unpopular and as every day passes, is seen as an existential threat to democracy, and that's not going away any time soon. people who don't care about biden or think he's old (he is) or ineffectual (he isn't) will come out to the polls just to keep trump out of office. gen-z hates trump and republicans in general. old people tend to lean towards the right and watch fox news all day. now ask yourself, how are the demographics trending from 2020->2024? think of all the college kids who have turned 18 and all the almost-deads who are now dead from covid or other natural causes. if i was to handicap that race, i would put the spread around 8.5-9.5mm votes. the popular vote will be a bloodbath. you might not see a path for biden (what an odd thing to say for a guy who literally just won the last election), but the path for trump relies on a very specific electoral map, a lot of luck, a lot of cheating (voter suppression, blowing up polling places, rigging machines), and probably yet another manufactured last minute hail-mary investigation scandal right before the election. what has happened between 2020 and 2024 that makes you think trump has gained votes? or at least gained votes in the 3-4 states he'll need to flip to win? the biggest thing to happen (outside of the indictment) is overturning roe, and that will only hurt him, as it hurt the gop in 2022. you seemed very confident in your first post, i would just love to learn where that's coming from.
  8. please please please point me in the direction of some sort of factual (or even fake) evidence that points to either of these being remotely true. i'm not even picking on you (like i normally would), i'm genuinely curious to visit parts of the internet i was previously unaware of (4chan? 8chan?). even if you don't have any actual evidence (you don't), please walk me through the logic of it (you can't). even if arizona and georgia both go to trump (they won't), that's still not enough electoral votes to swing the election. and honestly, human being to human being, it will be a long fucking time (definitely post-trump) until the republicans sniff the popular vote again. i'm just telling you this in case it happens to comes up in conversation, just in your day-to-day life (i can't even imagine what that looks like). i am happy to entertain a (fictitious) argument that trump will "wipe the floor" with anyone, but i can't in good conscious allow an adult person to walk among us thinking trump (or any republican) has a shot at the popular vote. it's the dumbest notion in the whole flat world.
  9. dude we were just having lunch, it’s not like i live there.
  10. the biden crime family is the only family i need right now.
  11. so trump's been scared shitless for 8 years?
  12. if the deep state is defined as a mysterious entity lurking in the shadows and quietly destroying the republican party, i think trump is the deep state.
  13. desantis is the cruelest. trump isn't cruel at all in comparison. trump wants to maintain power and make money. if being cruel overlaps with that, right on. trump isn't pro-choice. trump isn't religious. trump is an old wealthy white man, so there's a lot of overlap. but he doesn't care about traditional republican politics. he cares about whatever gets him reelected and able to maintain power. if he gets to hurt people along the way, i'm sure he's fine with that. he ran on grievance because that's how you win in the gop, and it worked. then when he became president, he didn't do shit, because he didn't want to be president. he likes running and winning and fundraising, but he didn't do shit as president. he didn't really try to do shit. he didn't pretend to try and unite the country, because it didn't serve his interests. "he didn't hurt the people he said he was going to hurt". sound familiar? he didn't build the wall, he didn't lock her up, he didn't repeal and replace obamacare. his only goal in 4 years was to get reelected and he fucked that up too. along the way he cut taxes for the rich, appointed judges, and got really lucky with the supreme court. republicans really liked the first two. the third one will likely continue to fuck the party, so bravo.
  14. that person does not exist in politics. trump has been a celebrity for 40 years and been a shitbag in politics for 15. the person you're imagining will not come along during trump's political life. here's what you're also forgetting - trump is not a republican. trump is maga. trump is trump. the media likes to pretend it's some great mystery why the nutbars and salad forks don't show up to the polls when trump is not on the ballot - they don't care about republican politics. they're not republicans either. even if trump steps down and points to someone and says, "he's my guy", they will not do it, because that guy is not trump. when trump dies, those hardcore maga boneheads don't just fall to desantis or nikki haley. they will go back under their rocks and will no longer engage in the process. only trump can be king of trump party. let's just hope he continues to wreck the gop on his way out.
  15. he was great playing ovitz in the late shift, which is an underrated gem from early hbo films.
  16. so cnn keeps playing this clip from an earlier interview with ken buck. buck isn't a big trump guy, but he's a republican, so he's saying the same ole shit. then he says that he wouldn't be comfortable with a convicted felon in the white house. so apparently, that's where we are. semantics. he's basically saying he acknowledges what he did, maybe he's even ok with it, but if he gets convicted, that's a bridge too far. ok. if you think what he did shouldn't be a crime, fine. if you think what he did should be a crime, but he shouldn't be prosecuted because he's a former potus, fine. if you think other people committed those crimes too, fine. if you think hillary clinton and joe biden and mike pence should be in prison already, fine. if you think there's no way that 12/12 jurors in florida agree to convict him, fine. but don't sit here and act like we're not sure if he did it. he did it. we know he did it. we have him on tape doing it. everyone close to him offered evidence that he did it. we have audio tape and photographical evidence that he did it. if you need mental gymnastics to figure out what to say to a journalist, then you should stop giving interviews. i have not heard one republican say he didn't do it.
  17. when i rewrite emails for the wife, she has to go through and find the double spaces. when she tells me about this horror, she looks at me like she wants to hit me with a closed fist.
  18. we watched on disney+ (eps released 2 at a time through may). i assume it's still there but good to hear it's on hulu as well. it feels like a pbs show, and i mean that in a good way. very well done and worth a watch. was unfamiliar with this perspective on the anne frank story.
  19. sounds like he's about to come to california to announce his presidential run. lolol.
  20. newsom is to california as desantis is to florida. i'd like to see him platformed properly in the 2024 run-up.
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