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swraith

Certifiably Surly
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Everything posted by swraith

  1. Is a major political party advocating for “bloated government”?
  2. What does a Tesla failure mean to you? I could see a reorganization bankruptcy if they run out of cash. But that just means they wipe out the equity holders. Debt holders take a haircut, line up new financing for Tesla and the company continues to produce cars. I don’t see Tesla shutting down and being liquidated any time soon.
  3. Hah. Now who didn’t see that coming ?
  4. I bought some a while back. Way to early while the knife was still falling. It has to rally back a fair bit before I think about breaking even.
  5. Wait so the estranged wife was trustee of the separate trust with undisclosed financial asset or she was the trustee of the will with 1.2 million in assets? Because if the trust held the bulk of Bourdain’s earnings, why the fuck would the estranged wife control the trust?
  6. Senate won’t pass any Trump legislation prior to November elections. I don’t see House Freedom Caucus lining up to support additional infrastructure spending in light of current budget deficit forecasts. Ryan won’t bring up legislation that his caucus doesn’t fully support. So my take is infrastructure spending legislation is currently dead in both Legislative chambers regardless of Trump’s desires.
  7. If someone claims they have changed their investment portfolio asset allocation to reflect a full blown recession, then I give them major props for putting their money where their mouth is. It is easy to claim the economy or equity markets will suffer from these tariffs. It is entirely another level of commitment to risk your personal wealth on such a claim or risk your job (if you are in the hedge fund business). So far, we have seen individual stocks suffer from the tariffs. But the broader equity indexes and macro economic indicators do not reflect the tariff news coverage.
  8. ^^^ maybe. Intellectually I oppose the implementation of these tariffs. But empirically, the US equities markets do not reflect any significant concern about the tariffs. Until we see equities sell offs that might reflect Wall St predicting a recession, the continued hyperbolic news coverage seems over blown. I don’t support the tariffs, but this isn’t the political hill to die on. Pick other political battles to fight.
  9. The article is not clear. Does the secretary of defense define the mission statement for the department of defense ?
  10. Anecdotally it seems like the last several large single down days are my with immediate bounces. I will be curious if we see the same tomorrow.
  11. So I guess the rumors of her resignation never panned out. Anybody putting odds on how long her tenure lasts as WH press secretary ?
  12. I keep waiting for US equities market to reflect the dangers of a potentially escalating trade war with US allies. Hasn’t happen yet.
  13. Final peach harvest.
  14. ^^^ That seems silly.
  15. Essentially it took a year to complete this and it doesn’t change anything ?
  16. So she isn’t resigning ?
  17. Did the Union raise the rent too damn high ?
  18. I assume your wife is taking this as a sign she does not want to work for this state agency that can not follow simple instructions. At this point are you mostly concerned about fallout with existing employer ?
  19. In terms of physical interconnects this is true. ERCOT has little ability to import/export electricity. In regards to FERC oversight you are also correct. And FERC already sided against Trump on this. But the Bloomberg article references this as a National Security Council memo in conjunction with DOE. This policy being couched in terms of National Security likely does have Federal reach into ERCOT. All that said, this policy is definitely targeting coal and nuclear plants in the Midwest/Northeast.
  20. Just chiming in to back up closetojumping. I have spent unfathomable hours at our company with sales executives who are trying to sell our commodity product on any basis other than price. A significant segment of the population shops for the lowest price energy. But a much larger segment of the population does not. Should they? Probably, but it is a personal choice. I myself would fall into the shop on price category. But entire brands are being built either around 1) higher priced commodity tied to a high quality customer service experience based on the billing side. Not customer service of guaranteeing the lights stay on. 2) higher priced commodity based on some affinity or social justice cause. This could be green energy or any other product packaging. 3) higher priced commodity based on some upfront incentive like a free thermostat, gift card, or some other hook. The list of marketing idea goes on. Many REPs want to sell on lowest price because that is the easiest sale. It makes for a challenging sustainable business in the long run like is demonstrated with Breeze. Company was founded in late 2000 based on articles I saw today, but alas they are now defunct. I don’t know the details of their default but REPs normally do not openly default. Either they fire sale the company or the creditors intervene and take control of the company to avoid dropping customers to POLR. Brands have failed in years prior, just not publicly. I am making the assumption that if Breeze couldn’t firesale their customer book in front of the summer, the company was in particularly dire straights. Sustainable growing energy retailers have to find ways to expand their unit margins. Selling the lowest price commodity is not the path to achieve that. ^^ All of the above does not apply to energy companies based on MLM strategies like Ambit or Stream. Those are different business models.
  21. I realize the hysteria of a trade wars is the news of the day. But US equities markets, while down, certainly aren’t crashing. SP500 is still very high. Other indicators like unemployment and GDP growth while not robust are not terrible. So I guess get back to me when either 1) The GOP gives a shit and starts taking action to restrict some of Trump’s chaos. 2) US equity markets fall something like 15-20%. Until then it mostly seems like shrug your shoulders as this is just standard fare for our current president and nothing to get your day ruined. I imagine most of the pain of the actions we see today won’t be felt until much later down the road. ^^^ The above is not an endorsement of the current actions of the administration. Merely an acknowledgment that no powers that be are currently challenging Trump domestically.
  22. swraith

    Heat wave

    This mother fucking summer is gonna burn.
  23. ‘Murica. Fuck Yeah. Our end game in Syria is non existent. Our long term goals in the Middle East are not defined. Our ability to win asymmetric urban wars in the long run is not clear. Want to fight our armed forces in toe to toe combat on the battlefield? Then we will most certainly fuck you up.
  24. Holy fuck. 105? I did 28 this morning and that damn near wiped me out. 105.... going to need a lot of beer after that.
  25. So jealous. My peaches are still green and hard. A few have been knocked off the tree in the past week. Plenty still on the tree but no sign of ripening yet. Getting a little worried.
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