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Everything posted by Dbeasy
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corporation for public broadcasting shutting down
Dbeasy replied to Hagbard Celine's topic in Daily Texan
Libertarians are the dumbest of the dumb people. It literally only takes five minutes of thought to realize that the government plays a critical role in the survival of a society. I took classes at UT from a Nobel Prize winning economist. He put it perfectly. When I asked why government had to play a role, he correctly pointed out that without government, human suffering would be unimaginable and unbearable.- 438 replies
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corporation for public broadcasting shutting down
Dbeasy replied to Hagbard Celine's topic in Daily Texan
So is PBS programming toast? -
All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread
Dbeasy replied to UTPhil2006's topic in Business and Markets
Here are the changes and revisions for the last several years. It is not surprising that a slowing economy is going to be revised downward. Statistics have to catch up with reality. U.S. Nonfarm Payroll Employment Changes and Revisions January 2018 through June 2025 (Second Quarter 2025) Data in thousands, seasonally adjusted Month/Year Initial Report (1st) Second Estimate (2nd) Final Estimate (3rd) Revision (2nd - 1st) Revision (3rd - 2nd) Total Revision (3rd - 1st) 2018 Jan 2018 200 239 176 +39 -63 -24 Feb 2018 313 326 324 +13 -2 +11 Mar 2018 103 135 155 +32 +20 +52 Apr 2018 164 159 175 -5 +16 +11 May 2018 223 244 268 +21 +24 +45 Jun 2018 213 248 208 +35 -40 -5 Jul 2018 157 147 165 -10 +18 +8 Aug 2018 201 270 286 +69 +16 +85 Sep 2018 134 118 119 -16 +1 -15 Oct 2018 250 237 274 -13 +37 +24 Nov 2018 155 176 196 +21 +20 +41 Dec 2018 312 222 227 -90 +5 -85 2019 Jan 2019 304 311 312 +7 +1 +8 Feb 2019 20 33 56 +13 +23 +36 Mar 2019 196 189 153 -7 -36 -43 Apr 2019 263 224 216 -39 -8 -47 May 2019 75 72 62 -3 -10 -13 Jun 2019 224 193 178 -31 -15 -46 Jul 2019 164 159 166 -5 +7 +2 Aug 2019 130 168 219 +38 +51 +89 Sep 2019 136 180 193 +44 +13 +57 Oct 2019 128 156 152 +28 -4 +24 Nov 2019 266 256 261 -10 +5 -5 Dec 2019 145 147 184 +2 +37 +39 2020 Jan 2020 225 273 214 +48 -59 -11 Feb 2020 273 275 251 +2 -24 -22 Mar 2020 -701 -881 -1,373 -180 -492 -672 Apr 2020 -20,537 -20,687 -20,787 -150 -100 -250 May 2020 2,509 2,699 2,725 +190 +26 +216 Jun 2020 4,800 4,791 4,781 -9 -10 -19 Jul 2020 1,763 1,734 1,761 -29 +27 -2 Aug 2020 1,371 1,489 1,493 +118 +4 +122 Sep 2020 661 672 711 +11 +39 +50 Oct 2020 638 610 654 -28 +44 +16 Nov 2020 245 336 264 +91 -72 +19 Dec 2020 -140 -227 -306 -87 -79 -166 2021 Jan 2021 49 166 233 +117 +67 +184 Feb 2021 379 468 536 +89 +68 +157 Mar 2021 916 770 785 -146 +15 -131 Apr 2021 266 278 269 +12 -9 +3 May 2021 559 583 614 +24 +31 +55 Jun 2021 850 938 962 +88 +24 +112 Jul 2021 943 1,053 1,091 +110 +38 +148 Aug 2021 235 366 483 +131 +117 +248 Sep 2021 194 312 379 +118 +67 +185 Oct 2021 531 546 648 +15 +102 +117 Nov 2021 210 249 647 +39 +398 +437 Dec 2021 199 510 588 +311 +78 +389 2022 Jan 2022 467 481 504 +14 +23 +37 Feb 2022 678 750 714 +72 -36 +36 Mar 2022 431 428 398 -3 -30 -33 Apr 2022 428 436 368 +8 -68 -60 May 2022 390 384 386 -6 +2 -4 Jun 2022 372 398 293 +26 -105 -79 Jul 2022 528 526 537 -2 +11 +9 Aug 2022 315 315 292 0 -23 -23 Sep 2022 263 315 269 +52 -46 +6 Oct 2022 261 284 263 +23 -21 +2 Nov 2022 263 256 290 -7 +34 +27 Dec 2022 223 260 239 +37 -21 +16 2023 Jan 2023 517 504 472 -13 -32 -45 Feb 2023 311 326 248 +15 -78 -63 Mar 2023 236 165 217 -71 +52 -19 Apr 2023 253 294 217 +41 -77 -36 May 2023 339 306 281 -33 -25 -58 Jun 2023 209 185 105 -24 -80 -104 Jul 2023 187 157 236 -30 +79 +49 Aug 2023 187 227 165 +40 -62 -22 Sep 2023 336 297 262 -39 -34 -74 Oct 2023 150 150 105 0 -45 -45 Nov 2023 199 173 182 -26 +9 -17 Dec 2023 216 333 290 +117 -43 +74 2024 Jan 2024 353 229 256 -124 +27 -97 Feb 2024 275 270 236 -5 -34 -39 Mar 2024 303 315 310 +12 -5 +7 Apr 2024 175 165 108 -10 -57 -67 May 2024 272 218 216 -54 -2 -56 Jun 2024 206 179 118 -27 -61 -88 Jul 2024 114 89 144 -25 +55 +30 Aug 2024 142 159 78 +17 -81 -64 Sep 2024 254 223 255 -31 +32 +1 Oct 2024 12 36 43 +24 +7 +31 Nov 2024 227 212 261 -15 +49 +34 Dec 2024 256 307 323 +51 +16 +67 2025 Q1-Q2 Jan 2025 143 125 111 -18 -14 -32 Feb 2025 151 117 102 -34 -15 -49 Mar 2025 228 185 120 -43 -65 -108 Apr 2025 177 147 158 -30 +11 -19 May 2025 139 144 — +5 — — Jun 2025 147 — — — — — Key Notes: Initial Report (1st): First estimate released ~3 weeks after reference month Second Estimate (2nd): Revised estimate released the following month Final Estimate (3rd): Final sample-based estimate released 2 months after initial Data shows employment changes in thousands of jobs (seasonally adjusted) Most recent data shows June 2025 with 147,000 jobs added initially, with April and May 2025 revisions showing combined upward revision of 16,000 The preliminary 2025 benchmark revision will be released on September 9, 2025 Revision Patterns: 2018-2019: Generally small revisions with mixed directions 2020: Large pandemic-related revisions, especially in March-April 2020 2021: Significant upward revisions as economic recovery estimates were refined 2022-2023: Mixed revisions with some substantial downward adjustments 2024: Continued pattern of mixed revisions, with several months showing significant downward adjustments in final estimates 2025: Early months showing predominantly downward revisions -
All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread
Dbeasy replied to UTPhil2006's topic in Business and Markets
I say this with all due respect. The reason job reports always have to be revised is because the calculations are based on very minimal information. If you actually walk thru the process of how the numbers are estimated, you quickly realize the level of accuracy desired is impossible to reach quickly. It’s not incompetence. It’s simply math. Think of mm of accuracy on a football field. I continue to be amazed by people who are obviously educated that get conned by the subterfuge being created by this administration. The reality is really not that complicated. The administration is pursuing trade policies that have the potential to raise the rates of goods and services for Americans and potentially ignite inflation again, creating a financial disaster. The Fed can’t cut rates until there is clear data that inflation won’t take off again, because that’s the thing about inflation. Once it starts it’s painful to stop it. Do you have no knowledge of what happened in the 1970’s and early 1980’s? I sure do and it wasn’t pleasant. 110% of this problem is on the back of the guy in the Oval Office, but because people fall for his bullshit, they think the blame lies elsewhere. He just fired the BLS guy not because he’s incompetent, but so he can create fake statistics and lie to everyone. Amazingly, people still just don’t get it yet. With all that said, a cut is coming soon. Why? Because he’s purposely driving the country into the ditch so that he and his billionaire buddies can go buy up assets at reduced prices, using funds that he’s gotten as bribes from countries, pardoned criminals, crypto rubes, and a thousand other schemes. Of you don’t believe it, just listen to his own words on a Netflix show where he states his desire to have crashes so he can buy cheap. This country is getting conned like it never has before. -
If HIPAA is such a critical law with huge legal liability for healthcare companies, then why am I able to always hear every word being spoken between a doctor and their patient in the room next door?
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UAP Pentagon Report (UFOs, Foo Fighters, Commie Drones)
Dbeasy replied to Doc Reeves's topic in Daily Texan
The science is settled. They are among us. -
The waters of high yield investments can be very difficult to navigate. At the end of the day any investment must have a decent total return in order to be successful. Many high yield investments just end up eroding the principal, so the yields give a misleading view of the investment’s return. And to make it worse, they constantly turn unrealized gains into realized gains that are taxed. Not saying there’s not a place for higher yielding investments. Just really must understand how they get those yields.
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Texas Football 2025 - Kicking the Sonofabitch In
Dbeasy replied to closetojumping's topic in Football
I know there’s a lot of skepticism about DeAndre Moore, but I personally believe he’s going to have a big year. He flashed at times and I think his hands are better than he’s shown. -
Texas Recruiting Notes 2026: Boulevard of Broken Bagmen
Dbeasy replied to texifornia's topic in 🤫$9.95🤫
One of the biggest urban legends ever. https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/rod-stewart-addresses-stomach-pump-story-never-thought-182403429.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAAjepV_AAAJxb7-VVSgaGwFHwNsT3SREZJgpKNKhdmuOd34mIThZ3ChDrMav7oDGwOXSpZHobG6U04nkeKL-XeyVvk5luFnGOWggP5mM12XreXGrciZAs7i2FE50qKeL4XPm2ZmugYUbtx4MLK3PFb2xUA1RXLzpN6iaKB38ggka -
Texas Recruiting Notes 2026: Boulevard of Broken Bagmen
Dbeasy replied to texifornia's topic in 🤫$9.95🤫
Why do they call it OvalTine? The jar’s round. The glass is round. They should call it RoundTine. -
Texas Recruiting Notes 2026: Boulevard of Broken Bagmen
Dbeasy replied to texifornia's topic in 🤫$9.95🤫
Did no one else go to the Union theater at lunchtime to watch All My Children, ie Greg and Jenny? No? Uh, me neither. -
Nope. The real story of Kennedy is nowhere near the fan fiction his press machine put out over the years. He was an idiot in the Pacific. Yup.
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The picture is blurry. I think it’s a cottonmouth but there’s a slight chance it’s a water snake.
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Texas Recruiting Notes 2026: Boulevard of Broken Bagmen
Dbeasy replied to texifornia's topic in 🤫$9.95🤫
This video really got me excited. I’ve been a Texas football fan since 1970, when my dad came back from Vietnam and decided we were going to finally settle down in Austin Texas. Almost immediately I was obsessed with the team. Nixon giving them the trophy. Roosevelt Leaks. Earl Campbell. There were a lot of highs and lows, of course culminating with 2006 in the Rose Bowl. I was there and it was glorious. For the first time since 2006 it feels like this program is at a place where it could have tremendous success again. The thing about Texas football history is that the program always peaks its head up for some glory from time to time, but rarely made a consistent run at the top over a long period of time. It’s hard to do. We have a chance to stay at the top as one of the truly elite programs year after year, and that’s an awesome opportunity. Go Arch. Go Horns. Let’s finally get one this year. -
One thing about a stock security or ETF with outsized returns is the fact there must be inherent risks in that pricing. The financial markets are wayyyyy too efficient to allow for such a large discrepancy to exist for more than a very short period of time. The risk is just probably not easily discernible.
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Texas Football 2025 - Kicking the Sonofabitch In
Dbeasy replied to closetojumping's topic in Football
Ok. -
That is exactly the same thought I had. There are some interesting perspectives but the overall approach is going to fail miserably.
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Texas Football 2025 - Kicking the Sonofabitch In
Dbeasy replied to closetojumping's topic in Football
I am most interested in seeing how the secondary performs. After years of being frustrated with our secondary, such as not turning their heads to look for the ball, etc. last year they finally broke thru and played really well. Up until that point I kept jokingly asking for a return of Akina, never believing that would actually happen, given not only his age but his struggles with zone coverage schemes. And now here we are with Akina. We are either going to be pleasantly surprised or cursing this hire for years. And I’m not sure at this point which way it’s going to go. -
As a side note, I’m amazed at how everyone is ok with asset under management fees from .5-1%+ annually, forever. This creates huge drags on a portfolio, and the work financial planners do is relatively “fixed”. It’s one of the biggest rackets out there, along with 6% real estate commissions on $2M+ homes.
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Thanks for the inputs. We are already in retirement and are at the point of deciding whether to convert and how much. Our particular situation is such that the decision to convert is not obvious for multiple reasons. I’ve built complex spreadsheets to contemplate scenarios. Because it is complex, I’m unsure whether I’ve built them correctly. The reason I need a competent advisor is for them to run the scenarios on their tools to see how it compares to what I’ve done. I need a check on the math. I also don’t want just a basic CFP because many of them don’t understand all of the complexities of Roth. They just run the scenarios through their tool and give that to clients. Those tools have a lot of assumptions that may be right or wrong for the future. I want someone to talk with about assumptions in more detail.
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Ok. So how are they getting 80%+ yields? Where is the return coming from? If underlying assets go up, it obviously enables payouts. But what is going up that much? And if things drop, which they will, then the crash will be significant too. Maybe not the full nav drop, but still significant. What am I not understanding?
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Ok now I’m completely confused. After loving Tires, I watched his 2023 standup on Netflix. Absolute, worthless racist, stereotypical, lame comedy. Terrible.
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