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Hefeweizen

Certifiably Surly
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Everything posted by Hefeweizen

  1. My post got deleted in the war thread since it had some political implications, even though I used the magic “No CR” air quotes. Sorry not sorry. This move by the idiot wing of the Democratic Party is why I am just anti Republican. It is infuriating when the executive has been handling it so well, with guys like Kinzinger backing them up. So now we have doofus McCarthy and a few dozen democrats free lancing foreign policy again? Fuck that.
  2. We’re doing our forecasting right now in business and it’s going to be a flat year, maybe even down slightly - single digits. That is after ten percent plus growth since 2010. So yeah it’s a full on recession and it’s going to last a year. 2023 will probably still suck. But I think 3q or 4q will start to accelerate. I do think interest rates are going to be the lagging indicator for recovery so the Fed is going to be chasing them down too far just like they chased them up too slowly.
  3. Wordle 490 5/6 🟩⬛⬛⬛🟨 🟩🟩🟨⬛⬛ 🟩🟩🟩🟩⬛ 🟩🟩🟩🟩⬛ 🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 One of the more irritating puzzles in a while.
  4. What IBRX doing? I have added more shares as it dives below 5 today. Also bought some more AMYZF. I’m living like it’s 2020 again. Maybe I’ll go scrape some HMBL off the pavement and mix it in with ALPP. The best I did on any of those crazy ones was XMET and FPVD. Lunacy.
  5. Scheiss bringing his a game. A class operator, that is. And 0.145 MGD won’t move the needle. It’s a tiny discharge. Unless it’s got some kind of unusual component in the raw waste, that could be done with a small membrane system and cost a couple of million to buy. Not much of a story and lots of more important stuff to worry about.
  6. Personally I think the covid supply shock showed everyone how dependent we’ve become on external manufacturers. It’s an annoyance for consumers but a National security issue for a lot of industries. Basically a giant wake up call to the US. And there were voices ahead of this, but mainly focused on trade, not supply chains.
  7. New analysis that’s seemed to fly under the radar about serious FAFO for the semiconductor and chip industries. Going to be very interesting to watch this unfold.
  8. His crash site and memorial plaque is about a half mile from me. my daughter loved that country road song when she was about 3 so I still have a soft spot for it. That’s all I have.
  9. That’s the size of it. I think in a grotesque way he can’t help himself with Twitter posts. But deep down he’s afraid he’s losing the Chinese market and that would be deadly to Tesla. Starlink will not be distributed in China. But Tesla doesn’t want to lose that market and in fact just got some preferential treatment. I can’t see this ending well for him. He’s too addicted to the feedback loop.
  10. Interesting thesis. I’m probably as conservatively positioned as I’ve been in a while outside of my stonk play account. I don’t like the macro feel at all right now. But I’m usually over pessimistic.
  11. Yeah. Speaking for all engineers, we’re surly assholes but not generally megalomaniacs. Sometimes.
  12. Apparently there’s a reason none of us are highly compensated market analysts. Fucking insanity.
  13. I entered that symbol and my computer caught fire. Thanks
  14. I didn’t get to follow things closely today but I am curious what the cry me a River bridge situation looks like. I think it would be a great time to hit somewhere else near the rail line right about now.
  15. Feels like we’re getting close to capitulation. Either that or we’re going over the ledge. Who fucking knows.
  16. Todays was legit hard. Wordle 480 5/6 ⬛⬛⬛⬛⬛ ⬛🟩⬛🟨⬛ ⬛🟩🟨🟨⬛ ⬛🟩🟩🟩🟩 🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩
  17. So I’ll put this review in the book nerd thread too, but I read One Soldier’s War by Babchenko over the past week and it’s a horrible read. Not in the sense that war is horrible, because that is known and has been brilliantly described in books like Storm of Steel, The Face of Battle, All Quiet, with the old breed, etc. It made me physically sick reading the book. Torturing soldiers ( that’s not fucking hazing), killing and eating dogs multiple times, stealing anything they could, literally allowing themselves to get sick, drinking contaminated water, you name it, if it’s disgusting and depraved they’re doing it. I can’t recommend the book as I kind of wish I hadn’t read it. It is that awful. The only book that has induced the same reaction off the top of my head was the Rape of Nanking.
  18. Cross posting: So I’ll put this review in the book nerd thread too, but I read One Soldier’s War by Babchenko over the past week and it’s a horrible read. Not in the sense that war is horrible, because that is known and has been brilliantly described in books like Storm of Steel, The Face of Battle, All Quiet, with the old breed, etc. It made me physically sick reading the book. Torturing soldiers ( that’s not fucking hazing), killing and eating dogs multiple times, stealing anything they could, literally allowing themselves to get sick, drinking contaminated water, you name it, if it’s disgusting and depraved they’re doing it. I can’t recommend the book as I kind of wish I hadn’t read it. It is that awful. The only book that has induced the same reaction off the top of my head was the Rape of Nanking.
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