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Posted
1 hour ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I can't imagine most people are buying cars unless they have no choice.

I think you underestimate how catastrophically stupid most people are when it comes to money, cars, and debt.

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Posted
15 hours ago, ChickenSandwich said:

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I guess some credit is deserved. This is the closest you've ever come to making a substantive response when shown IDENTICAL conduct by the party you unwaveringly support

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Posted

Listening to an economics webinar hosted by UCLA, a few key take-aways

  1. hiring is down
  2. capex is on hold because of uncertainty
  3. inventory levels down before Christmas season
  4. 77% of companies have passed on tariffs to consumers
  5. domestically produced items are raising prices even if they aren't directly affected by tariffs

 

The word UNCERTAINTY over tariffs, interest rates, policy comes up over and over again.

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Posted

Should have mentioned, the webinar is more focused on small and mid-sized businesses.

Summary from the panelists:

  1. Shocks from policies - tariffs, immigration
  2. Concern and apprehension because policies keep changing, however, policy "pauses" have allowed small businesses to navigate
  3. Fewer regulations is helping businesses
  4. Job growth is significantly lower
  5. Recession is imminent, or already underway
  6. Slight disagreement by panelists on tariffs...
    1. 60% of tariffs is passed to consumers
    2. 20% of tariffs is absorbed by companies
    3. 15% of tariffs is absorbed by foreign manufacturers
  7. Inflation according to government sources is 2.6%
  8. Inflation forecasted to be 3.3% by 2026 Q1.
  9. Construction has jobs that aren't being filled (really?)
  10. Small business owners are being affected most by tariffs because cash flow doesn't allow for stocking up of inventory
  11. Surprisingly small business are mostly optimistic - small business owners are generally optimistic (or else they wouldn't open their own business)
  12. Small businesses have seen worse during 2008 financial crisis and covid.
Posted
4 minutes ago, Superhero said:

Recession is imminent, or already underway

Talking head on CNBC was saying this AM that the US has been in a "rolling recession" for the last few years and that we are headed out of the rolling recessions into another bull market.  Who knows.

A lot of the bullets you have listed sync with my personal experience.   Pretty much been total chaos this year...will the tariffs really start to bite?  who knows.

Posted

Most recent podcast from Mark Zandi at Moodys went through they numbers of how it’s the top 20% of earners doing all the spending. Bottom 80% are negative. His group thinks the overall economy will muddle through, meaning low to no growth for a while but not “official” recession. But they also think the bottom 80% of earners are living a very real recession all the way. K shaped economy they call it. 

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Posted
14 minutes ago, tbone_ said:

Most recent podcast from Mark Zandi at Moodys went through they numbers of how it’s the top 20% of earners doing all the spending. Bottom 80% are negative. His group thinks the overall economy will muddle through, meaning low to no growth for a while but not “official” recession. But they also think the bottom 80% of earners are living a very real recession all the way. K shaped economy they call it. 

K shaped seems 100% accurate. living in two worlds side by side in more than just political ways, also economic ways. politics aside, it's a powder keg imo.

Posted
44 minutes ago, scramblyn said:

K shaped seems 100% accurate. living in two worlds side by side in more than just political ways, also economic ways. politics aside, it's a powder keg imo.

We have a greater degree of wealth inequality right now in the US than the French did when they broke out the guillotines, so yeah I'd agree it's a bit of a powder keg situation.

What's wild is that around 75% of corporate profits have been funneled into stock buybacks (source) which I believe is STRONGLY motivating the K-shaped recession. After the 2017 TCJA that only worsened. There's money for the poors, it just hasn't seemed to trickle down yet 🤔

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Posted
Just now, Incredulity said:

“Politics aside”

except for this fucking clown.  

you ever figure out if tariffs are happening, slugger? Sorry for bringing facts to support the claim I'm making?

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Posted (edited)
1 minute ago, Captainant said:

you ever figure out if tariffs are happening, slugger? Sorry for bringing facts to support the claim I'm making?

Get fucked.  You drivel the same anti-capitalist bullshit every fucking time.  Run off to the cloak room 

Edited by Incredulity
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Posted
2 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

Get fucked.  You drivel the same anti-capitalist bullshit every fucking time.  Run off to the cloak room 

Dude just put me on ignore and fuck off lol. You make shit up about me just so you can get mad about it. It's sad, honestly

Posted
1 minute ago, Captainant said:

Dude just put me on ignore and fuck off lol. You make shit up about me just so you can get mad about it. It's sad, honestly

Self awareness score 

 

zero point zero

Posted
42 minutes ago, Captainant said:

Dude just put me on ignore and fuck off lol. You make shit up about me just so you can get mad about it. It's sad, honestly

angry girl GIF

41 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

Self awareness score 

 

zero point zero

 

 

Little Girl Wtf GIF

Posted
14 hours ago, Incredulity said:

Get fucked.  You drivel the same anti-capitalist bullshit every fucking time.  Run off to the cloak room 

Since when is being critical of stock buy backs anti capitalist? Or did you take offense to a trickle down joke? Lighten up

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Posted
2 hours ago, B00M said:

Since when is being critical of stock buy backs anti capitalist? Or did you take offense to a trickle down joke? Lighten up

 

17 hours ago, Captainant said:

After the 2017 TCJA that only worsened

Yup totally not political 

 

fist yourself 

Posted

So referring to a tax reform law… in a thread about markets… is political? 

Or is your argument that the 2017 TCJA didn’t exacerbate the concentration of wealth?

Why are you so mad? 

Posted
11 minutes ago, B00M said:

So referring to a tax reform law… in a thread about markets… is political? 

Or is your argument that the 2017 TCJA didn’t exacerbate the concentration of wealth?

Why are you so mad? 

Stop being obtuse.

The asshole threadshits the same barf on every thread in every forum.  It’s nakedly political.  

Posted
8 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

Stop being obtuse.

The asshole threadshits the same barf on every thread in every forum.  It’s nakedly political.  

methinks the lady doth protest too much

Posted

I mean no one gives a fuck what I think but I didn't find the response to be overtly political. it certainly can cause one to wade into politics, but wealth inequality and stock buybacks are facts and what may or may not happen because of the inequality is arguably conjecture but does anyone really think the kinds of things that happened in history when wealth inequality was at all time highs were good for humanity? I certainly don't.

Posted

Well, the Act resulted in lower tax rates on corporations, which then resulted in greater profits.

Which they could then spend on a variety of things, but an alarming number chose to spend the money on stock buybacks.

That's pretty factual.

And, you can also comment on those things without being overtly political.

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Posted
2 minutes ago, scramblyn said:

I didn't realize politics of the french revolution were off limits. my bad.

I’ll take disingenuous comments for $2000, Alex.

 

Wealth inequality, TCJA discussion and French Revolution can all be discussed without overt political commentary.

 

“The guillotines are pending due to the TCJA” isn’t apolitical.

Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

I’ll take disingenuous comments for $2000, Alex.

 

Wealth inequality, TCJA discussion and French Revolution can all be discussed without overt political commentary.

 

“The guillotines are pending due to the TCJA” isn’t apolitical.

with populist sentiment on both sides, I disagree. uprisings of the poor and working class are quite common when the uber wealthy take it to far, that's pretty much the story of extreme wealth inequality throughout history. 

Edited by scramblyn
Posted
1 minute ago, Incredulity said:

I’ll take disingenuous comments for $2000, Alex.

 

Wealth inequality, TCJA discussion and French Revolution can all be discussed without overt political commentary.

 

“The guillotines are pending due to the TCJA” isn’t apolitical.

that's literally NOT what I said? Jesus christ dude 

18 hours ago, Captainant said:

We have a greater degree of wealth inequality right now in the US than the French did when they broke out the guillotines, so yeah I'd agree it's a bit of a powder keg situation.

What's wild is that around 75% of corporate profits have been funneled into stock buybacks (source) which I believe is STRONGLY motivating the K-shaped recession. After the 2017 TCJA that only worsened. There's money for the poors, it just hasn't seemed to trickle down yet 🤔

You reconstructing my words into something that triggers you is a you problem, gramps. 

Posted

Your first paragraph quite literally states things are worse than when the French started loping off heads.  You and the rest of the fucking Surly Leftists post about breaking out the guillotines constantly.  Don’t try to play coy now.  
 

Posted
Just now, scramblyn said:

Nah, same actress bro. Seriously you and Capitan Ant need to stop. 

It's frustrating that he stalks me across threads to lie about what I've posted and then get mad at his fabrication. I even back my claims with sources and factual information, and nothing will satisfy this crybully

Posted
3 minutes ago, Captainant said:

It's frustrating that he stalks me across threads to lie about what I've posted and then get mad at his fabrication. I even back my claims with sources and factual information, and nothing will satisfy this crybully

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