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Posted

https://www.wsj.com/economy/jobs/fed-chair-jerome-powell-says-u-s-may-be-drastically-overstating-jobs-numbers-741c635d?st=QN8TWY&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

Powell said that Fed staffers believe that federal data could be overestimating job creation by up to 60,000 jobs a month. Given that figures published so far show that the economy has added about 40,000 jobs a month since April, the real number could be something more like a loss of 20,000 jobs a month, Powell said.

“We think there’s an overstatement in these numbers,” Powell said in a press conference following the central bank’s two-day policy meeting.

Posted
2 hours ago, Captainant said:

https://www.wsj.com/economy/jobs/fed-chair-jerome-powell-says-u-s-may-be-drastically-overstating-jobs-numbers-741c635d?st=QN8TWY&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

Powell said that Fed staffers believe that federal data could be overestimating job creation by up to 60,000 jobs a month. Given that figures published so far show that the economy has added about 40,000 jobs a month since April, the real number could be something more like a loss of 20,000 jobs a month, Powell said.

“We think there’s an overstatement in these numbers,” Powell said in a press conference following the central bank’s two-day policy meeting.

Like I stated on the mortgage threat, Fed shrugs. 

Posted
9 hours ago, Captainant said:

https://www.wsj.com/economy/jobs/fed-chair-jerome-powell-says-u-s-may-be-drastically-overstating-jobs-numbers-741c635d?st=QN8TWY&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

Powell said that Fed staffers believe that federal data could be overestimating job creation by up to 60,000 jobs a month. Given that figures published so far show that the economy has added about 40,000 jobs a month since April, the real number could be something more like a loss of 20,000 jobs a month, Powell said.

“We think there’s an overstatement in these numbers,” Powell said in a press conference following the central bank’s two-day policy meeting.

oof

Posted

There are 162 pages here (do we have a Surly AI who can summarize for us this stuff @immamac) but I was listening to a podcast talking about in 2022 you had folks saying that our inflation was transitory inflation and that we are all idiots to worry about covid bail outs and inflation and how wildly wrong as we look back almost 4 years from then. I wonder which of us were those posters banging that drum.

Posted
24 minutes ago, Vegas64 said:

There are 162 pages here (do we have a Surly AI who can summarize for us this stuff @immamac) but I was listening to a podcast talking about in 2022 you had folks saying that our inflation was transitory inflation and that we are all idiots to worry about covid bail outs and inflation and how wildly wrong as we look back almost 4 years from then. I wonder which of us were those posters banging that drum.

people were wrong, fed was wrong, shit will be studied by economists for years, that economy took violent turns multiple times from lock downs, to supply chain disruptions, to covid bailouts, to consumer patterns changing drastically seemingly overnight multiple times, to later inflationary stickiness, now to tariffs. the covid money was definitely a significant part of it but it was no where near the only aspect and there were half a dozen events that we had not ever seen in a modern US economy.  

Posted
16 hours ago, Vegas64 said:

you had folks saying that our inflation was transitory inflation

That inflation (ie the general price spike that resulted from supply shocks and massive cash stimulus) was transitory. It was the most predictable, and predicted and well understood general price spike in history, and it subsided long ago. 

 Now you still have a ton of excess liquidity sloshing around, AND investors are rebalancing and doing some profit taking, and the FED has lowered rates (because reasons) AND you’ve got tariffs in place. And all those things are inflationary.
On the other hand, you’ve got AI, which is probably very deflationary once it gets  entrenched enough to really see the effects at scale, but we don’t know how long that is. ERP+CRM took about 7 years to destroy routine back office work, but got a big assist from the GFC. So, inside 10 years? 
But multiple things can be true at one time. And inflation is never evenly experienced across the economy anyway. Was inflation actually low before 2022? For example, decades of artificially low interest rates and tax stimulus, especially post GFC, essentially financed an acceleration of asset prices (like homes) with public debt, but we didn’t experience it as a general price spike because wages stayed flat* during that time and thus consumer prices for necessities were suppressed.  But that’s an artifact of measurement, not a lack of monetary inflation.

Anyhow, the people who said it was transitory weren’t wrong, it wasn’t ever in question. Everything is transitory. That’s not the right question. The right question is where are we now.

We’ll see. 
 

* mainly because the people at the very top of the economy kept more of the productivity growth and already owned more assets, while the people below the top technically received compensation increases but they mostly get diverted to healthcare costs, which in turn increased the valuations of companies in that space. 

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Posted
16 hours ago, Vegas64 said:

There are 162 pages here (do we have a Surly AI who can summarize for us this stuff @immamac) but I was listening to a podcast talking about in 2022 you had folks saying that our inflation was transitory inflation and that we are all idiots to worry about covid bail outs and inflation and how wildly wrong as we look back almost 4 years from then. I wonder which of us were those posters banging that drum.

image.png.d585886692c8a8507497003f3a4cd4ba.png

That's kind of the definition of transitory.

Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

That inflation (ie the general price spike that resulted from supply shocks and massive cash stimulus) was transitory. It was the most predictable, and predicted and well understood general price spike in history, and it subsided long ago. 

 Now you still have a ton of excess liquidity sloshing around, AND investors are rebalancing and doing some profit taking, and the FED has lowered rates (because reasons) AND you’ve got tariffs in place. And all those things are inflationary.
On the other hand, you’ve got AI, which is probably very deflationary once it gets  entrenched enough to really see the effects at scale, but we don’t know how long that is. ERP+CRM took about 7 years to destroy routine back office work, but got a big assist from the GFC. So, inside 10 years? 
But multiple things can be true at one time. And inflation is never evenly experienced across the economy anyway. Was inflation actually low before 2022? For example, decades of artificially low interest rates and tax stimulus, especially post GFC, essentially financed an acceleration of asset prices (like homes) with public debt, but we didn’t experience it as a general price spike because wages stayed flat* during that time and thus consumer prices for necessities were suppressed.  But that’s an artifact of measurement, not a lack of monetary inflation.

Anyhow, the people who said it was transitory weren’t wrong, it wasn’t ever in question. Everything is transitory. That’s not the right question. The right question is where are we now.

We’ll see. 
 

* mainly because the people at the very top of the economy kept more of the productivity growth and already owned more assets, while the people below the top technically received compensation increases but they mostly get diverted to healthcare costs, which in turn increased the valuations of companies in that space. 

Ehhhhhhh……..okay. Sure. I’ll buy all that I guess.

What is VERY interesting to me (and I almost posted in Trump’s Economy thread but will post here because you are both interesting and mentioned GFC) I recently binged a podcast on a companion series/lookback of the GFC through the lens of The Big Short (hosted by Michael Lewis) and there have been a few things of interest that were “posited”, I’ll call it.

- The GFC is directly responsible for cryptocurrency/ BTC

- The GFC is directly responsible for the rise of private credit / hedge funds/ pod shops / PE’s rise to supreme power in finance (which will also likely come to a crisis)

- Politically speaking, Obama / Obama administration’s lack of jail time as a punishment for anyone can directly be tied to a) the rise of the tea party b) the rise of outrage / anger as the national political currency that we still trade with to win and c) the of MAGA/Democratic Socialism and the death knell of classical neoliberalism centrism

The last episode is going to be an interview with both Elizabeth Warren and Steve Bannon because it is argued neither would have existed in the way they did and have without the GFC. It was their catalyst.

All this hindsight and autopsy interest because Michael Burry came out of hiding, shut down his HF and started a new career as a newsletter influencer with a substack, it seems. That and Andrew Ross Sorkin (of TBTF fame) has come out with a book on 1929 and we are in a time where a GFC2.0 seems like it’s a few years away at best.

Anyways 10/10 do recommend. 

Edited by Vegas64

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